AI over the next few years

[Nutmuncher]

I’ve recently shifted my reading content from war, doom scrolling and political madness towards being positive for the next few years, mainly scientific breakthroughs and technological advances from AI. There’s so much to be excited about (aside from the inescapable dose of fear and nerves of war doom climate doom and politics) and I think it’s something MN should be talking about more.

AI is coming whether we like it or not, it’s going to bring with it a seismic shift for the world that’s going to be incredible but also bring with it a tricky societal transition that will impact us all in some way, jobs will change, industry will evolve, the human touch will become increasingly important. How easily we transition to that new world is another story, how will those who don’t use devices or aren’t technology native actually navigate a more connected world? The economic implications if entire industries go or certain careers are no longer needed could be catastrophic if not managed properly and that’s just the tip of the iceberg. But I want to focus on the positives so let’s gloss over the bumpy transition period for now 😅

The advances and changes we’re going to see in the coming years will make today look like the 80’s in a relatively short space of time. The pace of progress in companies such as Anthropic, SpaceX, OpenAI right now is breathtaking. People think picture editing or making dodgy FB posters whenever you mention AI but it’s so much more than that, we just think it’s bad for the environment and that it’s taking jobs away when actually alongside technology and robotics it’s going to revolutionise how we live dramatically.

Excited about-

Medical advances and breakthroughs, we’ve seen the impact GLP-1s brought, there’s so much more just like those coming in the next few years. Drugs are being discovered super fast, research is taking months instead of years and analysis of clinical trials is more thorough and accurate. As new technologies come available the medicines keep improving. Gene therapy and having targeted treatments based on our own genetics is an exciting area of research that’s currently happening, the understanding of our own bodies will be a major step forward. I have always been keen in longevity and wellness, areas which I’m watching like a hawk.

Education. AI isn’t going to be a hologram teacher (not yet anyway) instead it could help teachers tailor lessons to each child, minimise many of the laborious administrative tasks, help to identify learning difficulties earlier and much more. I think classrooms are going to look very different in the next 5 years.

Industry. Rather than replacing entire industries, AI will automate repetitive work, improve decision-making and help people work more efficiently. Some sectors will change more than others and productivity will increase along with efficiency in the businesses that adopt and adapt. I think industry and workplaces in general will soon be judged on how quickly they use new technology, those that do will appear relevant and capable and those that don’t will resemble an office if it were still using a typewriter today.

Anyone else excited?

Easy to get excited if it's not your job that's going first. I'm in late 50s, and AI is coming for my profession at an alarming rate. I'm not feeling thrilled about the possibilities of AI rn.

Yep, I can’t wait. I think it’ll be fab.

If you know it’s coming for your job you’ve got plenty of time to prepare then, haven’t you?

So many jobs will go. Companies will have to embrace it to compete. And how will we support all the unemployed people when the profits are being siphoned off to Silicon Valley? It's all pretty scary.

start using AI now to dramatically increase your productivity, like when accountants started using spreadsheets instead of handwritten books.

Prepare how? Retraining in late 50s isn't that simple. You don't have many working years left to recoup the training costs. And you'll be 60 with no experience competing with the millions of 20 something unemployed with no experience.

Anyone who has no worries about the impact at a societal level is being a bit naive, I think. I'm not saying there won't be the benefits you mention for medicine etc, but we can't just cherrypick the positives.

Some form of Universal Basic Income would be introduced if the unemployed numbers start rising too high, otherwise people will need to adapt or retrain in other capacities, maybe they start leveraging AI for themselves and do something different? It’s not going to be like Covid when everyone was furloughed, jobs will evolve and so will the workforce mindset.

Have you tried Claude or ChatGPT? Start using it now and getting to understand it because I guarantee others in whatever it is you do, are.

Really interested to understand this more- I am director of a finance department (so the accountants you’re talking out lol!) my organisation provide basic co pilot. What would you start using it for the get ahead? I only use it for presenting ideas and initiatives (ie complex emails or paper wording) and can’t see how else it can help really?

Of course I use AI now, as much as poss. But current contracts actually stipulate that AI can't be used except for v limited things, so hands are tied a fair bit. And if everyone in my industry is working at 5 x the speed thanks to AI, but the market doesn't need any more of what we produce than it does now, that's only 20% employed compared to now.

Do you really think there'll be the same number of people employed in accountancy, for example, in future as there are now? I don't think that's at all likely once AI really gets going.

I think that there’ll be unintended consequences.

How sustainable is AI? Cost v profit?

Fords went headlong into AI and have had to dial back as there was a reduction in quality. They’ve had to bring back the human element.

I agree about the pace of change. I attended an AI conference and they said the change the internet made in 30 years is phenomenal but that AI will cause a similar change but condensed. That’s scary.

I believe there’s a huge benefit to analogue and I dislike things having tech just for the sake of it/ cis it can. AI chat bots in toys are dangerous for example. IMO.

I am from the North East and when all the industrial jobs were outsourced to China and other countries with cheap labour it took decades for even a partial recovery.
Some towns and cities have never recovered such as Middlesbrough which lost steel making and heavy industry.
It’s the scale of the layoffs that happen and the lack of new jobs available.
My son now works in IT in a city bank and his team started using copilot to write programs to reduce staffing, he thinks it could be 20%.

Did you use it to enhance your initial OP perchance?

I think we've all gone mad about AI.

My company this week announced a load of redundancies due to AI.

AI is absolutely brilliant at reading and analysing huge amounts of data in very little time.

That is extremely helpful.

But that isn't that big a deal.

It's not the game-changer the internet has turned out to be. And we haven't exactly cured cancer as a result of the internet.

Some seem to think we've created this super-intelligent being that's getting more intelligent every day.

I think we've just created an advanced predictive text tool that makes google searches better, and that's it.

And as with any new technology it will also be in the hands of bad people

making fake news videos so it’s difficult to know who to believe

companies putting too much trust in software that can go rogue

the costs will sky rocket

god knows what will warp the kinds of people watching AI porn but then get upset and violent real life sex isn’t like that

will it be like social media when things go wrong? Will AI companies be held responsible or will they take the money and burn claiming user mistakes?

there will be a handful of people chasing profits and no accountability, morals or ethics considered.

it will be a mess

Universal Basic Income is very costly for the Treasury. It only works if the economy is booming. But AI is owned by American companies, so the worry is that the UK economy will not benefit sufficiently to balance the losses in jobs. Perhaps over decades things will work out, but transitions like this are incredibly painful for large numbers of people. Look at deindustrialisation in the late 20th century. Brutal for many communities.

You know what, I'm very old and your take on AI in the future is exactly what they said about computers in the 1990s.

Yes, things will change, but advancement will be strangled for all but the few and the ones who lead the way with AI will dominate our lives, to the determent of us all sadly.

None of the tech overlords are bothered about making the world a better place. Like all the barons before them, they're only interested in power and money.

Actually I was going to go with the MN AI suggested title but opted against it 😆 it read a bit too fluffy

What are the redundancies and what AI have they put in place to replace them?

like you I struggle to get it. AI can, say, easily pretty up a presentation and write speaker notes. If that’s your job, yes you’re for the chop.

but if like most of us you do a variety of tasks and projects, as well as maybe leadership of management, how does AI replace you without upgrading systems to embed which takes time?

for example back to finance roles. AI can enhance the (already in place) automation of invoice processing so once installed into your accounts payable system, can reduce roles.

but the company can’t overnight implement and make people redundant and it’s also nothing to do with basic LLm like Claude or chat GPT which can’t, in their widely available product, apply AI to your invoice processing.

No, I'm not ecstatic about it. I make music - AI will be quite happy to steal my creative ideas and wreck my livelihood without recompense

Where will the money for universal basic income come from if the AI profits sit in the hands of a few private companies. Especially where they are already actively avoiding paying taxes.

There is a growing movement to nationalise AI. Really interesting that people in both the democrats and the republicans are calling for it in the US

I agree and that’s why I think what that looks like will be very much situational and reactive to what actually happens instead of trying to predict a hypothetical scenario. There’s a lot of talk of abundance for all, mostly centred around humanoid robotics eventually carrying out significant amounts of work. New industries will emerge and maybe our work life balance will shift in a new direction.

AI can’t replace the human essence of the arts, I think you’ll be safe.

I work for a large finance software company, we were just told this week that a number of people are being made redundant and it is due to AI. The company has been working closely with Anthropic for several months now.

No clearer details were given than that - I don't know who, I don't know what they did and I don't know how or even if AI is replacing them.