AI over the next few years

[Nutmuncher]

I’ve recently shifted my reading content from war, doom scrolling and political madness towards being positive for the next few years, mainly scientific breakthroughs and technological advances from AI. There’s so much to be excited about (aside from the inescapable dose of fear and nerves of war doom climate doom and politics) and I think it’s something MN should be talking about more.

AI is coming whether we like it or not, it’s going to bring with it a seismic shift for the world that’s going to be incredible but also bring with it a tricky societal transition that will impact us all in some way, jobs will change, industry will evolve, the human touch will become increasingly important. How easily we transition to that new world is another story, how will those who don’t use devices or aren’t technology native actually navigate a more connected world? The economic implications if entire industries go or certain careers are no longer needed could be catastrophic if not managed properly and that’s just the tip of the iceberg. But I want to focus on the positives so let’s gloss over the bumpy transition period for now 😅

The advances and changes we’re going to see in the coming years will make today look like the 80’s in a relatively short space of time. The pace of progress in companies such as Anthropic, SpaceX, OpenAI right now is breathtaking. People think picture editing or making dodgy FB posters whenever you mention AI but it’s so much more than that, we just think it’s bad for the environment and that it’s taking jobs away when actually alongside technology and robotics it’s going to revolutionise how we live dramatically.

Excited about-

Medical advances and breakthroughs, we’ve seen the impact GLP-1s brought, there’s so much more just like those coming in the next few years. Drugs are being discovered super fast, research is taking months instead of years and analysis of clinical trials is more thorough and accurate. As new technologies come available the medicines keep improving. Gene therapy and having targeted treatments based on our own genetics is an exciting area of research that’s currently happening, the understanding of our own bodies will be a major step forward. I have always been keen in longevity and wellness, areas which I’m watching like a hawk.

Education. AI isn’t going to be a hologram teacher (not yet anyway) instead it could help teachers tailor lessons to each child, minimise many of the laborious administrative tasks, help to identify learning difficulties earlier and much more. I think classrooms are going to look very different in the next 5 years.

Industry. Rather than replacing entire industries, AI will automate repetitive work, improve decision-making and help people work more efficiently. Some sectors will change more than others and productivity will increase along with efficiency in the businesses that adopt and adapt. I think industry and workplaces in general will soon be judged on how quickly they use new technology, those that do will appear relevant and capable and those that don’t will resemble an office if it were still using a typewriter today.

Anyone else excited?

And if you are replaced by AI and/or a robot what do you do then ?

Except you still need the typing and language skills to use the word processor. AI will be doing it on its on. There won’t be a “you” any more.

And this is the thing. People are comparing it to computers, but the computers still needed operatives. AI doesn’t.

As for the people saying that’ll be great, they’ll get to reduce their hours. Absolutely, and reduce your money as well. Or do people think they’ll still be earning the same money? They won’t. Why would an employer pay you for less hours when AI can do your job for free.

But AI isn’t and won’t be “free”.

And this is the thing. People are comparing it to computers, but the computers still needed operatives. AI doesn’t.

It still needs programmers to write the programmes.

Why wouldn’t you be excited by this prospect for your DC or DGC?

AI tailoring lesson plans geared towards individual pupils will be revolutionary. Yes it’s a big shift for those who started off using chalk and blackboards in their teaching careers but the digital savvy teachers would see immeasurable benefits from using AI in the classroom. With ever increasing SEN demands an AI teaching assistant would be able to adapt a lesson plan for every pupil in ways they can engage with to maximise their learning experience.

Kids are using iPads in the classroom now, AI is the logical next step. Remember they are entirely digital native, this is their future world and they will have to be adept at using the technology.

That’s not really an impact of AI though, I’m not sure AI increases that threat?

Ai is being absolutely shunned by a lot of teens now with refusals to use it due to its awful environmental impact and catastrophic effect on the arts.

I’ve already known multiple people in differing fields lose jobs to it.
it’s a scary future that’s for sure.

What I find confusing about the AI situation is that I work in tech and so many of the claims made don't match my reality one bit, which makes me wonder - am I missing something, are people bamboozled or are they deliberately lying?

The reality is that even after years and years of tech development it is still incredibly hard to make quite simple software, not because of the tech but because the process of designing something that humans use is very very hard and not many people are good at it. AI is utterly shit at it.

As for robots doing everything, humanoid robots are expensive, high-maintenance and dangerous - if they fall over on someone, or malfunction they can cause huge damage and create high liability costs. A fixed 'robot' that does one task - bolting pieces on a car, for example - is worth having because it's quite safe and robust, but the cost/benefit ratio worsens very fast when a robot is able to move freely - one obstacle can send it flying and result in thousands worth of damage. It is extremely hard to replace the multi-functional nature of humans - they are so adaptable (as well as being stubborn and having a tendency towards flakiness) that when you add everything up it is hard to find a sweet spot where the fragility and rigidity of robots justifies their cost.

For the road to be full of driverless cars, so much has to change that I can't see it happening in the next twenty years. The tech is mediocre at best, but the real issue is the weirdness of driving. Once you break a simple car journey down into the number of judgements and decisions needed, it is truly incredible that humans manage it at all. Trying to create a system that can cope with that and with the general chaos of road systems is so hard that again the cost/benefit ratio starts to look pretty bad pretty fast.

Also, I can't help wondering if men's fundamental inadequacy - their inability to produce life - is fuelling all this nonsense, such that what they are chasing can never be fully realised. They will never be women. What an existential horror that must be.

AI writes programmes. That’s one of the primary things it’s supposed to do. In time apparently, it’ll do it all itself, end to end

"Keen on longevity and wellness" !! To what end? Ermm, no thank you. We are keeping too many people alive due to advances in medicine but no quality of life.
Wellness part, yes please.

This is interesting
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1CAvNn5tUR8&ra=m

I was actually trying to link the FT article from yesterday but the paywall bot won’t let me! Same view. Don’t panic.

Do you really envision governments allowing millions upon millions of people become destitute and penniless across the world?

It’s giving At The End Of The Day from Les Miserables.

I think you're being naive - willfully or not - about the most immediate impact of AI. The seismic shift in the fabric of industry and society is likely accurate, at least in the short term, but it won't be a seamless or steady transition. There will be huge casualties in terms of livelihood for a large portion of the population, and the current social infrastructure cannot cope with it. There are really no AI-safe jobs, some may just hold on a little longer than others. It's coming for everyone.

Your AI-based utopia is a looooong way off, and there will be huge trouble in the meantime. That's if we even get there and the benefits aren't sequestered by the already-existing tech leaders.

Yes, but I can remember it feeling like this when computers first appeared in workplaces in the 80's. And we adapted to that quickly.

Someone has to write the AI programme that writes other programmes it does not do it by some miracle process.

how on earth will universal income be paid for?
some people won’t accept it either, they get pissed off when free school meals were extended or cheaper admittance to zoos.
plus, idle hands cause problems. Bored people with access to little money. It won’t end well. People need to feel needed, valued and like they’ve achieved something.

the only thing that will happen is the rich tech companies getting cheaper and the rest of us scrabbling around.

Where’s the money coming from? ai can be based anywhere in the world. So they can’t tax it

Do you really envision governments being able to stop it? If 10 people's jobs can be done with 3 people and AI how does the government force a company to keep paying them all? How does a government fund the resultant mass unemployment?

More generously, if AI reduces your working week to 20 hours, can you pay your mortgage and bills on half your current salary? Or do you imagine companies will be happy to keep paying you the same?

The model would have to completely change. The companies that hold all the value would have to pay taxes to support the countries in which they operate. The current model of offshoring would have to be stopped.

in a way, it’s only right- if these companies are going to take our earning power and put us out of work in the Pursuit of profits they should pay.

obviously there is a lot of idealism in here, but universal income is idealistic, not realistic

Have you driven a Tesla yet? If not I would take a test drive. That technology alone is quite incredible, the onboard cameras and detection sensor system is outstanding, for me the liability on the roads is humans not the cars. Cars aren’t smoking weed or thinking ‘it’s only round the corner’ whilst half cut or speeding for shits and giggles or falling asleep at the wheel, take those drivers out of the equation and you have a fairly convincing safety model.

You’re correct about the price of humanoid robots at the moment, it’s quite high but the anticipated production output for Optimus and plenty of other brands is extremely high which will drive prices down massively. They’re not going to launch wobbly unstable units into commercial use without guaranteed precision, watch this space.

Your last point about men is interesting because there’s actually a significant amount of female software engineers and AI entrepreneurs and enthusiasts who are working on amazing developments, which you would know if you took some time to look into it.

Better yet, why not ask ChatGPT.

That would mean all countries globally would have to agree.

I just don’t get the logic of some of this impact.

Take law for example. We’re told that AI will do all the day to day, repetitive time consuming work and that lawyers will be freed up to do the serious high level tactical thinking and “human” bit needed; that’s where we add value.

However, to be a really good tactical lawyer you need experience. You get experience by doing the day to day, repetitive time consuming work that we’re told AI is going to do. Experienced senior lawyers aren’t grown in the lab or come out of law school on a conveyor belt.

I’ve yet to hear a satisfactory explanation of how that works in practice.

This is exactly the issue. Where will they come from? law firms are already cutting junior positions because of AI. It will only get worse.

Well this is key. Universal income isn’t a realistic idea in the first place- how can anyone be expected to apply practicalities to idealism?

I have 'looked into it.' You clearly haven't. I was going to write a long reply but I don't have the energy for it. I'm sick of coming up against silly beliefs like yours. They just do. not. match. reality - the actual factual reality that I work in. Like I said, I can't tell if it's willful naivete or something else.