AI over the next few years

[Nutmuncher]

I’ve recently shifted my reading content from war, doom scrolling and political madness towards being positive for the next few years, mainly scientific breakthroughs and technological advances from AI. There’s so much to be excited about (aside from the inescapable dose of fear and nerves of war doom climate doom and politics) and I think it’s something MN should be talking about more.

AI is coming whether we like it or not, it’s going to bring with it a seismic shift for the world that’s going to be incredible but also bring with it a tricky societal transition that will impact us all in some way, jobs will change, industry will evolve, the human touch will become increasingly important. How easily we transition to that new world is another story, how will those who don’t use devices or aren’t technology native actually navigate a more connected world? The economic implications if entire industries go or certain careers are no longer needed could be catastrophic if not managed properly and that’s just the tip of the iceberg. But I want to focus on the positives so let’s gloss over the bumpy transition period for now 😅

The advances and changes we’re going to see in the coming years will make today look like the 80’s in a relatively short space of time. The pace of progress in companies such as Anthropic, SpaceX, OpenAI right now is breathtaking. People think picture editing or making dodgy FB posters whenever you mention AI but it’s so much more than that, we just think it’s bad for the environment and that it’s taking jobs away when actually alongside technology and robotics it’s going to revolutionise how we live dramatically.

Excited about-

Medical advances and breakthroughs, we’ve seen the impact GLP-1s brought, there’s so much more just like those coming in the next few years. Drugs are being discovered super fast, research is taking months instead of years and analysis of clinical trials is more thorough and accurate. As new technologies come available the medicines keep improving. Gene therapy and having targeted treatments based on our own genetics is an exciting area of research that’s currently happening, the understanding of our own bodies will be a major step forward. I have always been keen in longevity and wellness, areas which I’m watching like a hawk.

Education. AI isn’t going to be a hologram teacher (not yet anyway) instead it could help teachers tailor lessons to each child, minimise many of the laborious administrative tasks, help to identify learning difficulties earlier and much more. I think classrooms are going to look very different in the next 5 years.

Industry. Rather than replacing entire industries, AI will automate repetitive work, improve decision-making and help people work more efficiently. Some sectors will change more than others and productivity will increase along with efficiency in the businesses that adopt and adapt. I think industry and workplaces in general will soon be judged on how quickly they use new technology, those that do will appear relevant and capable and those that don’t will resemble an office if it were still using a typewriter today.

Anyone else excited?

That’s not really the case though surely? People might use AI for captions etc but humans are still filming TikTok’s

So what do you think AI is if it is not a computer programme?

Where will people get the money from to pay for human-made music or art? Or to pay hairdressers and barbers and beauticians and nail technicians? When they've lost their jobs to AI and are existing on Universal Credit or Universal Basic Income?

If I wasn't working I'd be socialising loads, I'd also be out excercising cheaply (running) because i'd have the time.

I am in a 'safe' career, and would welcome a reduction in the working week so that another person could share the load and supplement their (hypothetical) universal basic income whilst I supplement mine.

If a 3rd of jobs go then that should with good governance mean that the average working week drops from 40 hrs to 27hours. I look forward to this.

AI isn't the problem it's lack of transparency and tax doging by big businesses and very wealthy individuals, combined with poor, unfair governance which we already have, in terms of some people being allowed to opt out of work and benefit from a very similar finances as those who do work. These are the problems that need fixing.

Use Co Pilot to teach yourself Power Pivot for Excel, data modelling, DAX formulas, and then Power BI and SQL. Carry on from there, e.g. Python in Excel, R code, etc.
Best used in conjunction with a structured online course (free Microsoft courses available, and loads else). Then use Co Pilot instead of (or as well as) Google searches to query specific points and fill in gaps in understanding.

Then with your real work, ask Co-pilot how to do stuff and solve your issues. No need to load sensitive data or Excel workbooks, in fact best not to. Just describe your difficulty or problem, or e.g. ask it 'what is wrong with this DAX?' and paste in your attempted code, or 'how to write a DAX formula that does this thing?' and describe your data tables.
There is a delicate balance between using it as a teacher and getting it to do the work for you.

Caveat - Co pilot can very occasionally screw up and tell "lies", so test and verify everything, and if in doubt Google other sources for confirmation.

I do most of that, the rest isn’t relevant to my role or I’m already an expert in it.

that’s what I don’t get. Yes it is brilliant for data based problem solving. How many people realistically do this as their whole job though?

I don’t have unknowns or work “issues” co pilot can help with -in any real way (yes asking them the best way to I.e feedback on a proposal is fab) I’m very senior and very experienced and I’m paid for my strategic thinking, not crunching spreadsheets.

im not saying my role is the majority, but every conversation about AI includes “learning” it. Apart from playing around with the actual features what’s there to learn? I have no need for python, for example.

genuine questions btw

AI

It's interesting that the people currently most threatened on this thread are artists. Artists are a very important part of society but by and large they do not command large wages. So replacing every self employed artist/illustrator/back ground music bod with AI would be crap for them AND represent very little cost saving to the industry. Definitely not the billions and billions promised
Vibe coding, generating AI "art" also costs a lot of money. AI used sensibly could make work more efficient. The idea that we could replace a third of the workforce for AI which would likely cost more money than the employees did is hype driven by big tech.

The whole "learn AI" thing is weird because it's while POINT of large language model based AI is it's supposed to be intuitive, to know what it's users want, to be less effort than traditional coding etc. so why are so many people trying to sell extensive training courses?

Personally my experience with AI is to use it as a teacher/trainer, and to write or check bits of code or formulas. I don't need it to write my emails or reports because my English is already good.

Do your team use Power Query to its full extent? Or other automation tools?
They should be using the tools to streamline the routine monthly work as much as possible, freeing up their time for developing new projects and initiatives.

Does your department have a development 'wish list' of things you would like to do if you had time?
If not, does your CEO? Can you expand your role to take on some of that wish list?

The idea that AI is going to result in an egalitarian leisure-based utopia is naive, to put it mildly.

The most extravagant techno-fantasies of a shiny new AI future will not happen.
Mostly because the world doesn't have the energy resources.
Look up 'peak oil', and freshwater shortages (not to mention rare-earth minerals).
The planned data centres simply won't have the electricity or cooling water needed.
It is not going to happen.

I wouldn't be so optimistic.
With AI we are heading for a dystopia rather than a utopia.
AI companies are only a handful and mostly American.
All profits will go to them.
Who will pay Basic Income and from what if the unemployed don't pay taxes anymore?
And how will the people spend money if they have no money to spend because they have no jobs?
NHS will be dead by then and you will have to pay or you'll die of cancer.
Rich will get even richer and the rest of us...

The AI isn’t necessarily what will replace the workforce, it’s the robots that will carry out many manual labour intensive roles. There’s a lot of work happening in the back ground to produce affordable capable humanoid robots that are expected to revolutionise manufacturing, logistics, transportation, services roles in the coming years. Tesla is planning on manufacturing significant amount of Optimus robots in the next couple of years, Elon Musk has said in many interviews wants Robots building Robots. That’s only one company. There’s several in China racing to launch their products as well as several other big players.

It’s not only the software, the hardware is going to be transformational too.

Does no one watch sci fi and take heed??

You’re right, oil isn’t going to make a dent, those fossil fuels are going to be obsolete very soon. Solar power and Fusion technology is what will propell the growth.
🌞⚡️

@Nutmuncher can I please ask how old you are and what industry you currently work in?

I work for the NHS and we’ve been told redundancies will happen and AI will be taking over the job roles of consultants secretaries for example.
So it will become even harder to get to speak to a human being within the NHS.

There already are robots building robots. There have been for ages.
Elon also said we would have reached Mars by now, yet here is is in 2026 on earth.
Fusions cool. It's not free energy though. You still need fuel and a whopping great power plant (and a big spinning turbine. Gotta have big spinning turbines).

Yeah it really can do incredible things… I fed grok a trial P&L and it spat out absolutely spot on micro accounts for example.

I cannot see accountants being employed in the same way in two years time, personally. Its strengths are definitely as a partner tool to someone who already knows what they’re doing. Definitely worth playing around with!

Plot twist... Nutmuncher is an AI

I'm which case @Nutmuncher What's a good recipe for brownies?

We’re already seeing constraints on its use in my industry. First, there have already been several high profile AI “fuck ups”. Second, the costs are about to spiral. We have an internal AI system that we pay for everyone to use. The providers of that system are now renegotiating on the basis of a licensing type arrangement which will massively increase costs, meaning we’re going to need to decide very carefully who uses it and for what purpose or it’s going to cost us a fortune.

And if it starts being more expensive than a human doing it, where’s the competitive edge?

That seems to be the model @BilgeVole - sell at a loss, make everyone reliant on it, de-skill the workforce, then hike the price.

What has actually been more useful for us than AI is automation tools - those seem to have either advanced or become accessible (in a way they weren’t before to non-IT people) and that is really speeding up how we do some things.

Fusion power is ten years away.
It has always been ten years away.
It will always be ten years away.

😅 indeed

I don’t cook myself but https://www.gowercottagebrownies.co.uk/brownies.html are impeccable 😏

For someone leading a finance team, I’d use it to summarise long reports, analyse spreadsheets for trends or anomalies, challenge business cases, draft board papers, prepare briefing notes, compare policy options, build first drafts of budgets or forecasts, and even role-play difficult conversations with stakeholders. Rather than asking it to write for you, use it as a junior analyst that can produce a first pass in minutes, leaving you to apply your judgement and expertise. That’s where the real productivity gain comes from.
…is what ChatGPT says.