To think Starmer will be gone by the end of Friday? Or will it be Monday evening?

[SingleSexSpacesInSchools]

Whoever you are voting for today, it's probably not Labour - they might loose 2,000 seats.

How long exactly will it be before he resigns?

Certifiable.

If that were true, the last Tory government would have called an election far sooner than they did. It's not true and it's everything to do with having a majority that can't be whittled down to low figures in 3 years.

Exactly. Even if there's dozens of by-elections over the next three years, and the government loses every single one of them, they'll still command a workable majority.

He’s achieved brilliant things in Manchester. Brought the buses back into public ownership. Introduced ‘Manchesterism’ - a loan system to stimulate house building which has paid for itself I believe 4 times over, and all interest used to build affordable housing. He was a terrier during lockdown and the HS2 shenanigans, and secured the Liverpool-Manchester railway line. His response to the arena bombing was dignified, loving and inspiring and brought Manchester together at a time when other voices would have torn it in half. Imagine someone like Farage holding a grieving angry city together in the wake of a terror attack largely targeting young girls. It takes real skill and leadership to pick your way through that and emerge as the moral leader.

I think he’d be a brilliant prime minister. But I still don’t think now’s the time to change prime minister.

Trust me, you don’t.

No matter, because we are otherwise aligned.

The FT lists it as one of Theresa May’s five big mistakes:

"Mrs May’s decision in April 2017 to call a snap general election will be remembered as an unenforced error of epic proportions.

At the time, the Tories enjoyed a huge lead in the opinion polls. Senior colleagues including David Davis, the then Brexit secretary, urged her to go to the country to increase Tory representation in the House of Commons, bolster her political capital and gain more room for manoeuvre to push though an exit deal.

When the count came in on June 9 Mrs May had lost her slender Commons majority and her political authority was shattered.

But perhaps a still bigger blunder than calling the poll was the election campaign itself. Mrs May had already been dubbed the “Maybot” by one newspaper sketchwriter. Now, her robotic style was on prime time for weeks.

Urged by her joint chief of staff, Nick Timothy, Mrs May produced a manifesto that included a policy that would force the elderly to pay all but the last £100,000 of their care costs. This was almost immediately dubbed a “dementia tax”.

“They put out policies that hadn’t been road tested,” said Paul Goodman, editor of the ConservativeHome website. “The election was not the mistake, it was not being clear what it was for.”"

www.ft.com/content/2ea1b40c-7d7f-11e9-81d2-f785092ab560?syn-25a6b1a6=1

What if the polling does not improve?

Limp on, growing voter dissatisfaction, more visible infighting, loss of authority and credibility.

At that point, a GE may become politically unavoidable.

The bond markets would probably disagree with your penultimate sentence.

The polls just Closed!!

i don’t disagree that he’s been an excellent mayor.

Well, the fact that I said a 96% chance didn’t mean yes I do or no I don’t it says statistically I probably do well done you Barry big balls.

I am very much glad you are otherwise aligned. I hope you have signed up to give away your extra cash to people who don’t put in quite as much effort as you and I do.

Have you forgotten the utter destruction and greed of 14 years under the Tories? I actually think Labour are doing a good job in exceedingly difficult circumstances. Reform and Tories would have supported Trump in Iran and Farage is only interested in lining his pockets. He has missed the last 50 voting opportunities in parliament and you can guarantee he's not interested in helping ordinary people.
Under Labour so far: NHS waiting lists are down.
Child poverty being addressed with breakfast clubs, improved nutritional meals for school dinners in September, and lift of 3 child benefit cap,
closer relationship with EU including rejoining Erasmus, better trade deals, reviewing of the student loans to name a few issues off the top of my head!

You have fundamentally understood what a mandate from the electorate means if they do not have a mandate the government will find it nearly impossible to govern and will likely call a general election even if they think they will lose

If all of those things are true why are people so incredibly angry and upset with the government? Why are there marches every weekend? Why is everybody pissed off?

Like you, I have no issue with taxation.

What I object to is the ever increasing scope and levels of tax - and where it is allocated (towards a seemingly ever-expanding welfare state).

Speaking of balls, it feels like we are constantly being kicked in the nether regions.

Enough.

Don't make me Princess Bride GIF the word 'mandate'..

But please post your link to the definition you are using of what a 'mandate from the electorate' means.

My house says it is.

Is your house leveraged?

Just cast your mind back to all of the things that have happened in the last six months let alone the last five years and you would really put your house on there not being a general election before 2029? You are quite quite mad.

#MICDROP

Sorry, just checking that there was sufficient equity to cover the bet.

Edit: Given an OTC transaction etc.

Gotta admit.

It feels a bit like Xmas Eve when one was a kid….

🎄

And this - “The left’s self-professed ‘virtue’ is grotesque.” @DenizenOfAisleOfShame

Emotional but where does the money come from?

NHS waiting lists aren’t down though. It’s manipulation of the figures - Labour have changed how they calculate who is on the waiting lists by removing some groups of people. Lifting of the child benefit cap is not a popular policy change with most people - only popular with the feckless who can’t afford more than two kids, but who will have more if they can get the state to pick up the financial shortfall. And a ‘review of student loans’ is just that - a review. Whilst the government are scratching around for money to keep the welfare pot full, they won’t scrap student debt. That’s never going to happen. But you keep on deluding yourself how good Labour are……

You don’t know what a mandate is. This government was given a five year mandate in 2024. It retains that mandate for as long as it has a majority in the House of Commons.