To think Starmer will be gone by the end of Friday? Or will it be Monday evening?

[SingleSexSpacesInSchools]

Whoever you are voting for today, it's probably not Labour - they might loose 2,000 seats.

How long exactly will it be before he resigns?

Yes and who do you think will be the best person in charged?

Op; Unless you're under 18 then you'll know that local elections are usually a shitshow for the governing party. Starmer will be well aware of that.

As much as I abhor what they have done for the country and can’t wait for the ge when they will be wiped out, he shouldn’t go after the locals. The reason is he’s the best of s very very bad bunch, it won’t get any better if they replace him, it’s a shit show of extraordinary scale.

Well, yes. But cutting spending is, on Labour authority, austerity. Which is unconscionable, apparently.

What can any government do if faced with lurid claims of killing hundreds of thousands, or even millions, by refusing to reduce spending on welfare, including pensions?

And God help any government that reduces state pensions in favour of other welfare.

Thank you for saying it so forcefully but plainly. Now who does not understand this?

And Burnham has said he would consider borrowing to fund the defence budget.

@Upstartled I don't believe this was a plan, it was a comment.
I do think he's a more emotive character than Kier Starmer. He appears to care about people and understand and empathise with normal lives. Although, I believe he would be hard to actually install.
I don't think Kier Starmer is a very effective leader. Angela Rayner would be a nightmare, she appears to be rather self-serving and let's not go into the tax debacle... Wes Streeting and David Lammy would probably be contenders.
However, I'm not sure that Kier will be keen to move on anyway and will probably ride out the storm that's coming.

The crux of the matter is this: no Labour PM, whether Starmer, Rayner, Burnham or any other, will be able to get any material reform to the welfare budget past the back benches, or the unions - even if they wanted to.

Reeves and Starmer found out the hard way last year.

IMO, that’s why this Labour government will ultimately fall.

So Starmer goes (which he won’t), what precisely do you think is going to change? This weird obsession with unseating Prime Ministers is totally out of hand. You’ll have the opportunity to get shut in 2029.

I totally agree. Are we an ungovernable nation?

He won’t go, at least of his own accord.

What I expect is the most appalling Labour civil war. The left of Labour is licking its lips.

Every government falls eventually. But we'll see what the backbenchers do when it's seen as critical to winning the next election. I'm not as convinced as you that we'll see turkeys voting for Christmas.

I disagree.

Ignoring the locals for a moment, you understand how seismic it will be if Starmer loses the Senedd, right?

So, let’s say Starmer is removed - replaced by any of the others (take your pick). What follows is potentially internecine warfare (in part, caused by Starmer’s removal).

If you have Burnham or Rayner as PM, it’s entirely plausible that they will provoke an economic crisis - that alone would prompt a collapse of government and the prospect of an early GE.

If this Govt has shown us one thing, it’s that they are experts at unforced errors, and own goals.

That depends on your definition of Christmas and turkeys.

Having Starmer in charge is highly likely to lead to the oven for most Labour MPs. In fact nearly all of them. He’s not in command of his party and the voters hate him.

Yes, he has terrible personal approval ratings, with 44% of respondents in the latest YouGov poll believing that he should step down.

Then the best thing is for Starmer to stay?

Btw: Starmer doesn't "have" the Senedd. Your understanding of devolution in the UK needs some work.

I'm referring to the people who vote for them. Can't stand right wingers - they are venal, grasping and self-serving. Every problem the UK has now can be laid directly at the feet of Conservative governments and the numpties who voted for them. I'm not having a laugh, because none of it is funny.

It’s not just the local elections.

@Hallowedturf, I agree, they are trapped.

Just call me boring or pedantic, but occasionally I do lie in bed at night and wonder if the rebels of the back bench rebellion to welfare reform really believe that they have served the public good.

Pressure from the bond markets may lead to reform.

I am not a Tony Blair fan, but this report from his institute for global change is worth a look at. Secondary legislation is proposed as a way of instituting reform amongst other measures.

https://institute.global/insights/public-services/an-emergency-handbrake-for-uk-welfare-stabilising-spending-supporting-people

Ah, but quite a few people see changing the PM as leading to electoral disaster. So who is right? Stick or twist? There's a feeling among many that the churn of leaders is a bad thing and people don't want it. And it's what people feel in 2029 that's going to count.

Yes

In Jan 2021 43% thought Johnson should resign. He didn't until September 2022. And only then through cowardice.

I won't be hurting in the morning. I am not a Labour voter.

Thanks, I read that with interest, too.

I wonder how that report sits with the welfare crowd - presumably Blair is now the devil incarnate…

On the contrary. I know very well that the incumbent government typically loses 20% of defended seats on local elections. Has been that stat for a long long time.

however. Today polls are predicting 75-80% losses.

that’s very. Very new.