How long before fuel rationing?

[Bettercallsalli]

A lot of talk of possible fuel rationing here if this conflict continues.
Will Airlines be able to cope? It does seem inevitable now.

What's left in the North Sea isn't 'ours'. The licenses were sold off by the Thatcher gov in the 1980s. So if it were ever extracted, it would be sold on the open energy market by the company that owns the field and benefit the UK not one jot. We wouldn't get first dibs, or a preferential deal, or any kind of discount. So I really have no idea why people think this would help. What would help is a government helping people to insulate their homes, making housebuilders build more efficient houses and investing in renewables.

We could always fight a war over it

No fuel queues or shortages here

But its not about how much we personally import from the Gulf - its about the world supply markets. If the countries that buy their oil from the Gulf can't get the supplies they need, they will look to other markets to fulfill their needs, including Norway, the US, Libya and Nigeria.

We may not get the immediate shortages, but they will come if this carries on much longer - and it will take a while to get anywhere near back to normal because once those countries that are affected switch their supply chains, they won't be in a rush to go back to their old ones and risk future instability.

The impact of the damage on processing and storing facilities across the Gulf is also massive - even if this ends in the next couple of weeks - which is looking increasingly unlikely, there is going to be an impact on supplies for years to come.

Hopefully it won't become the apocalyptic nightmare of famines that are predicted in the article someone linked above (although that is actually a very well researched piece), or even rations.

However, it is highly likely that we will see continuing price rises and potentially as a result, will have to make some fairly serious lifestyle changes compared to what we have become used to as a society over the past 40 years, and the past 10 years in particular. I'm not talking on an individual level, but a macro level.

I think we are going to have to very quickly get used to seeing less out of season product availability and also imported fresh foods - especially where production depends on hot houses, we will have to give up our reliability on 'just in time' production and households will have to give up their love of next day delivery for every little thing (and I say that as someone who definitely overuses their Amazon Prime subscription).

Panic buying is stupid, but it is eminently sensible to make sure you have a store cupboard of key supplies and ingredients which you keep topped up and have to hand back up plans for meals a recipes which don't include ingredients that may become hard to get.

I think it is also advisable to keep some cash in the house - if this thing does escalate, one of the impacts is likely to be an uptick in cyber attacks - remember how everything fell apart when the Cloudflare update took out supermarket payment machines for a few hours and bank payments were delayed - imagine that happening for a couple of days!

Because of the idiots panic buying. Which surely will push prices up due to high demand.

I think that has been debunked as fake news. The woman is in Texas and it was a few years ago. The trash media really doesn't help things.

It was great - we filled up just before it all kicked off and didn't use the car too much - DH had a works van. We had some time off during the fuel strike and went to Alton Towers and Waterworld - because everyone was conserving fuel, both were really quiet! It was fab!

I remember having a few days off school as the bus couldn't fuel up. We thought that was rather good at the time.

The story may not be true. But what it tells us is that you'll never lose money betting on stupid.

This is so dangerous

this and the newspapers and social media fan the flames.

We'll all be in the shit soon then🫢

Plenty of recent studies on 'panic buying' relate to COVID impacts and responses. The first image is from an Australian report where the paper tested simulated messaging interventions to see what might reduce the impacts.

The second is from a RTE piece where Prof Stott discusses the phenomenon. Stott doesn't like the term and states "It’s not being driven by fear, it’s being driven by the rational understanding that if I can’t get petrol, I can’t go to work." Stott suggests that the role of the media is important. So both investigate how important messaging is.

Reducing Panic Buying During Crisis Lockdowns: A Randomized Controlled Trial of a Theory-Based Online Intervention

The psychology of panic buying

Because the higher prices and higher tax receipts go to the gov and we’d not have to import the longer distances.

So much talk about panic buying - to me panic buying would be fighting at the pumps and people, you know, actually panicking. Or widespread filling of jerry cans and inappropriate containers.

That doesn't mean some of the buying that's going on won't potentially cause logistical problems. The trouble is that rational people have a tendency to be cautious, hence topping up a little early, or buying a little extra pasta, or whatever, and multiplied over the whole population that's all it takes to create pressure on supply. You could argue it's disobedient to the spirit of government advice not to change buying patterns, but that doesn't mean it's panic. All these warnings about panic buying probably more to provoke demand than reduce it.

I'm wondering where the MN sympathy for stretched families on small budgets is now - for many it's pretty rational to fill up earlier than usual right now because of the price increases. Imagine that multiplied over the whole country. That pressure on supply is just something the government has to manage so I think there probably is a risk of rationing to do that, but sneering at imagined panickers really misses the point. Only a tiny bit of increased demand is going to be coming from people who are actually panicking, at this point.

On the plus side, as a country we probably have a lot of headroom for saving fuel, so if everyone who can really starts to drive less that will make a difference.

Be interesting if we hit that point how do you make sure the people keeping everyone fed and watered get to work.

Who counts. B&m workers? Or actual supermarkets. The warehouse staff. If they close your food or your pets food is not getting shipped out. we all still need water and electric. We need doctors. We need internet for those working from home.

Before you know everyone has at least one person in their home who needs fuel.

This 😵‍💫

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq8w07yx319o

Think of the islands

Our closest supermarkets have ran out of diesel. There is some at the texaco garage for 190 a litre.

"Who counts. B&m workers? Or actual supermarkets."

Ironically, the people who will count the most - especially come August / September time will be the people who support the farms and the harvests....ironically many of whom are immigrants!

The Daily Mail, Express and Telegraph will be in a right tizzy over that one - can you imagine the headlines?!? Farage's head will be spinning so much he will be able to audition for a part in the Exorcist 😂

Oh dear …

They will just bus them in to live in statics while
working.

1 bus 30 staff.

Maybe companies should do the same.

I actually saw a Bernard mathews staff bus a while back so they must all meet in a spot and then driven to the factory.

I'm not sure it will come to that.

Though the possibility could be reduced by those who can work from home not being forced into offices five days a week because of property interests or managers incapable of managing poor performers.

The Ozzies have made alot of public transport free to encourage people to ditch their cars and conserve fuel. I dont know if theyre more dependent on Middle Eastern fuel compared to us or not...(excuse my ignorance).

Its pretty widely discussed today that Iran are threatening to bomb US installations from tomorrow, theyre widening their attacks, meanwhile Trump is threatening to bomb out Irans oil supply, and another major oil route is being threatened with being closed too. Lots of news outlets reporting it. Escalations seem possible and the financial markets seem all over the place on energy prices. Hasn't the philippines already started rationing?

So doesn't seem like scaremongering. Doesnt mean itll happen of course, I hope not, but it doesnt seem like a completely out there potential outcome at some point.