AIBU to think a lot of people don't realise the extent to which the small boats crisis is a direct consequence of Brexit...

[Greeygoooose]

...and that it's just one of the many ways in which right-wingers voting for Brexit was indistinguishable from turkeys voting for Christmas?

They do.

Please explain exactly why you OP think the small boats crisis is a direct result of Brexit. Its more likely the fault of governments not doing anything about it.

Because of the first point of entry rule that allows EU countries to send back asylum seekers to the first point of entry.

How many do Germany and ROI send back to first point of entry? Have you checked?

Is it your belief both send most back?

No, they don't necessarily send most back, as all countries will take a certain amount and it's probably a lot easier to take the ones already there than send them back and accept another amount. But they absolutely do send people back to the first point of entry - it can take time though, most often because the asylum seeks are not necessarily cooperative because they do not want to be sent back.

My sister has researched this area for many many years, and now works in the asylum system in an EU country, so I happen to have some quite decent information on this.

And to add it's not just about actually sending people back, it's about the fact they can. So asylum seekers are less incentivised to make a dangerous and expensive journey in the first place. I am guessing it's where the one in one out thing came from, in the hope that would have the same effect.

House of Commons Library figures for 2018;

In 2018, the UK received a total of 37,453 asylum applications, and made 5,510 outgoing transfer requests under Dublin III. Of these 5,510 requests, 209 migrants were transferred out of the UK under Dublin III, whilst 1,215 came in, making the UK a net recipient in 2018.

Also, why did asylum applications in the EU rise from 564,700 in 2018 to over one million in 2023?

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Asylum_applications_-_annual_statistics

As if anyone arriving worried about that. The % sent back must have been miniscule. Like being the unlucky 1 sent back to France now. So unlikely as to be no deterrent at all.

Oh, but they are! Under EU rules we were able to return them to France 🤷‍♀️

You've literally just proved the point of the OP

Here’s some numbers. People talk up the first point of entry a lot on here but the reality is countries have to say yes and the first point of entry countries quite rightly don’t want every other EU country sending everyone back to them.
—-
In 2024 Germany has asked Bulgaria to take back 8,090 people who were registered as migrants for the first time on Bulgarian territory. Bulgaria has said it is responsible for 3,297 migrants, but in reality 290 people have been returned.

Italy was supposed to take in 12,841 migrants, but in fact it took in only three. This means that Rome has taken in 0.0288 percent of the migrants it is responsible for.

Other EU countries, which send the most migrants to Germany, are also taking in almost no people, despite being obliged to do so. Greece has taken in 22 people, and Croatia has returned 533 people, although almost 13,000 should have been.

The Secretary General of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Carsten Linemann, said that for him this was "further proof that the asylum system in Europe is not working".

—-

I’m sure most can understand Italy, Greece and Spain are not going to say yes send everyone back to us. Why would they?

It's true the transfer back isn't always successful. Apparently only about 10%. Largely due to bureaucracy and the time limits expiring. I guess many other EU countries have the same issues in processing asylum seekers as the UK. But legally they are able.

Also, why did asylum applications in the EU rise from 564,700 in 2018 to over one million in 2023

I don't know, increased conflict and economic migration would be my guess. I doubt it's to do with Brexit.

You sound intellectual.

What do you mean "take"? I would assume Greece, Italy etc are not taking asylum seekers from other countries as they get loads arriving there as first point of entry.

Poland is a country of first point of entry on the border with Belarus - why don't the EU send more asylum seekers back to Poland? Greece is a country of first point of entry - Dublin returns to Greece were suspended for 6 years between 2011 - 2017.

Apparently Germany, France, Italy and Spain take the most. So doesn't really match with your "3" for Italy @Clavinova

I mean I can't really comment on what happened 10 years ago between Greece and Ireland, or the details behind individual member states that you pluck out of the google search results that fit your agenda. There is the legal framework to do it, it sounds like there are practical difficulties in implementing it.

You cite sending people back and how easy it was pre Brexit.

It’s not true, no EU country can ‘send people back’ easily. Italy, Spain or Greece can and do say no to Germany for example.

People move through the countries and they are not returned to first entry.

I didn't say easily. I said there was a legal framework to do, and to redistribute asylum seekers which acted as a deterrent to boat crossings.

It's true the transfer back isn't always successful. Apparently only about 10%

Indeed, the UK's average success rate 2015-2018 was 7%.

I don't know, increased conflict and economic migration would be my guess. I doubt it's to do with Brexit

Well quite.

well quite, what? You asked me why asylum applications in the EU increased. What is the point you are trying to make?

Also, what does "take" mean in terms of your statistics?

No this isn’t correct. The numbers returned were minuscule and it was not a deterrent. You do know we had peak asylum claims in 2002?

It’s also not a deterrent anywhere as a system. See Germany and ROI and anywhere. Poland has other more effective measures.

The EU has a problem with massively increased asylum applications since 2020.

The EU has a problem with massively increased asylum applications since 2020.

This was presumably due to a peak in conflicts. Anyway, aren't we talking about small boats, those numbers apparently increased post Brexit. Slightly tricky as they didn't monitor them in the same way, but apparently they increased from 8,466 in 2020 to 45,774 in 2022.