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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Original poster

AIBU to think a lot of people don't realise the extent to which the small boats crisis is a direct consequence of Brexit...

169 replies

Greeygoooose · 26/02/2026 15:23

...and that it's just one of the many ways in which right-wingers voting for Brexit was indistinguishable from turkeys voting for Christmas?

OP posts:
Alternativelyviewed · 26/02/2026 21:28

@Jmaho still brexit

EasternStandard · 26/02/2026 21:28

BurntBroccoli · 26/02/2026 21:22

Recent figures for asylum claimants:

101,000 asylum claims in 2025 - down 4%

• 135,000 initial decisions made, UP 56%, highest since records began in 2002

• Grant rate: 42%, down from 47%

101k asylum claims. That is pretty high.

Alternativelyviewed · 26/02/2026 21:29

@Clavinova the idea that people from africa and Albania are interested in Brexit is farcical

hedgeknight · 26/02/2026 21:33

WilfredsPies · 26/02/2026 21:25

I disagree that it’s part of it. We lost lots of things due to Brexit. Those things didn’t have an impact on the numbers of small boats either. Person A, B and C from Sudan, Afghanistan and Iran aren’t going to care whether or not we’re still in the EU. All that matters to them is that we’re still signatories to the Refugee Convention and the ECHR.

I think Brexit is being blamed for the increase in numbers because it roughly coincided with increased security measures in France and people traffickers realising it was a lot cheaper and a lot less work to stick 70 people on a small boat to the UK on a deserted beach than it was to sneak 70 people into the port and onto a lorry. Once they realised that, coupled with the horrible situations in a lot of countries, increased poverty around the world and a number of pull factors to the UK, of course numbers were going to increase. That’s not down to Brexit.

I can find opinions to suggest it had no impact, which is all there is to support either side of the argument. What I can’t find is anything more than opinions to suggest it has impacted it.

Show quote history

Can you share some of those opinions that Brexit had no impact?

Plenty of evidence from various sources that Brexit has had an impact.

EasternStandard · 26/02/2026 21:34

Crikeyalmighty · 26/02/2026 20:38

@MrThorpeHazell a quick AI Google returns the following - this was always my understanding too

  • Pre-Brexit Mechanism (Dublin III): The Dublin regulation allowed for the transfer of asylum seekers back to the EU state responsible for their claim (usually France, if they crossed the Channel).
  • Limitation of Returns: While the mechanism existed, returning individuals on small boats was always complex and not automatically approved by France, even before the UK left the EU.
  • Post-Brexit Situation: The UK lost access to this automatic return system on 1 January 2021. Since then, no new returns agreement has been successfully implemented, making it much harder to send asylum seekers back to France.
  • BBC
  • +4
In summary, the UK had a legal framework (Dublin III) to process returns, but not a direct "right" to push back boats at sea, as turning back vessels in international or territorial waters without consent is generally prohibited.

The middle point here is the issue. It was minuscule numbers and still is for other EU countries.

BurntBroccoli · 26/02/2026 21:34

EasternStandard · 26/02/2026 21:28

101k asylum claims. That is pretty high.

Show quote history

The rates that decisions are being made has increased hugely which at least cuts down the waiting time for those seeking asylum and will be cheaper for the tax payer.

WilfredsPies · 26/02/2026 21:35

BurntBroccoli · 26/02/2026 21:20

Yes but the problems people are now seeing are the asylum hotels which definitely weren’t a thing before Brexit.

Also people moaning about “benefits” and housing given to “illegals”. Again - it didn’t happen before Brexit as these stowaways just disappeared into the system, got jobs, maybe worked a few years to get some cash, then moved back to Europe.

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@BurntBroccoli

Yes but the problems people are now seeing are the asylum hotels which definitely weren’t a thing before Brexit Covid wasn’t a thing in the UK before Brexit. That doesn’t mean Brexit is responsible for it. Increased numbers of arrivals mean increased demand for accommodation.

Also people moaning about “benefits” and housing given to “illegals”. Again - it didn’t happen before Brexit as these stowaways just disappeared into the system, got jobs, maybe worked a few years to get some cash, then moved back to Europe I have no idea where you’ve got this nonsense from, but it’s not true.

Portakalkedi · 26/02/2026 21:37

Nonsense. And how would it help being in the EU? All EU countries are required to take a certain number of illegal immigrants, but some of them just refuse, so much for obeying EU rules, and just means all the more coming to the UK.

Clavinova · 26/02/2026 21:37

BurntBroccoli · 26/02/2026 21:20

Yes but the problems people are now seeing are the asylum hotels which definitely weren’t a thing before Brexit.

Also people moaning about “benefits” and housing given to “illegals”. Again - it didn’t happen before Brexit as these stowaways just disappeared into the system, got jobs, maybe worked a few years to get some cash, then moved back to Europe.

Show quote history

the problems people are now seeing are the asylum hotels which definitely weren’t a thing before Brexit

Asylum hotels here in Kent 1999 and 2003:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/1999/aug/24/immigration.immigrationandpublicservices1
https://www.thecaterer.com/news/row-breaks-out-over-kent-hotel-bought-for-asylum-seekers

Why have there been problems with asylum accommodation in the Republic of Ireland? Ireland have not left the EU:

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2026/02/08/no-space-for-up-to-400-asylum-seekers-in-january-amid-persistent-system-pressure/

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4n14g8xqnyo

Tents housing asylum seekers near the International Protection Office, Dublin, in 2024. Photograph: PA

No space for up to 400 asylum seekers in January amid persistent system pressure

More than 13,000 people applied for asylum in State last year, down from a record 18,651 in 2024

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2026/02/08/no-space-for-up-to-400-asylum-seekers-in-january-amid-persistent-system-pressure/

EasternStandard · 26/02/2026 21:41

Clavinova · 26/02/2026 21:37

the problems people are now seeing are the asylum hotels which definitely weren’t a thing before Brexit

Asylum hotels here in Kent 1999 and 2003:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/1999/aug/24/immigration.immigrationandpublicservices1
https://www.thecaterer.com/news/row-breaks-out-over-kent-hotel-bought-for-asylum-seekers

Why have there been problems with asylum accommodation in the Republic of Ireland? Ireland have not left the EU:

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2026/02/08/no-space-for-up-to-400-asylum-seekers-in-january-amid-persistent-system-pressure/

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4n14g8xqnyo

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@BurntBroccoliwhere do you think the people stayed when asylum claims were at a peak in 2002?

Clavinova · 26/02/2026 21:46

hedgeknight · 26/02/2026 21:33

Can you share some of those opinions that Brexit had no impact?

Plenty of evidence from various sources that Brexit has had an impact.

Show quote history

Do you think Shabana Mahmood lied to the Home Affairs Committee earlier this month?

‘But is Brexit responsible for the boats? I don't think that's true.'
‘the idea that this has happened because we've lost the access to Dublin and the returns agreement with the EU, I think that's too much of a stretch’.

Lying to Parliament is a serious matter.

hedgeknight · 26/02/2026 21:49

Clavinova · 26/02/2026 21:46

Do you think Shabana Mahmood lied to the Home Affairs Committee earlier this month?

‘But is Brexit responsible for the boats? I don't think that's true.'
‘the idea that this has happened because we've lost the access to Dublin and the returns agreement with the EU, I think that's too much of a stretch’.

Lying to Parliament is a serious matter.

Show quote history

She said it was her opinion, 'I think'

Maybe you have a link to research that Brexit had had no impact?

WilfredsPies · 26/02/2026 21:53

hedgeknight · 26/02/2026 21:33

Can you share some of those opinions that Brexit had no impact?

Plenty of evidence from various sources that Brexit has had an impact.

Show quote history

@Clavinova has very kindly just shared a recent one for you. I think she’s in a position where she’d have a pretty good grasp of what’s happening. And, of course, we have the stats to prove that we were not returning any significant numbers of people to Europe under Dublin, prior to Brexit. If we weren’t benefitting from Dublin before Brexit, why would losing it encourage people to come to the UK after Brexit?

Is there plenty of evidence? Where?

TooBigForMyBoots · 26/02/2026 21:54

ViaRia01 · 26/02/2026 19:49

@TooBigForMyBoots what does the Dublin Accord have to do with this? That relates to the mutual recognition of engineering qualifications between EU member states, to support enable freedom of movement within the profession.

I knew Accord didn't sound right. That's why I put the (?) at the end.🙈 Fortunately posters after me got it.

Thanks for correcting that and telling me a bit about how Brexit impacted Uk Engineers @ViaRia01.Thanks

hedgeknight · 26/02/2026 21:57

WilfredsPies · 26/02/2026 21:53

@Clavinova has very kindly just shared a recent one for you. I think she’s in a position where she’d have a pretty good grasp of what’s happening. And, of course, we have the stats to prove that we were not returning any significant numbers of people to Europe under Dublin, prior to Brexit. If we weren’t benefitting from Dublin before Brexit, why would losing it encourage people to come to the UK after Brexit?

Is there plenty of evidence? Where?

Edited
Show quote history

Ok, you haven't anything.

Thanks

EasternStandard · 26/02/2026 21:58

hedgeknight · 26/02/2026 21:57

Ok, you haven't anything.

Thanks

Show quote history

I don’t think you’ve got much for previous claims.

hedgeknight · 26/02/2026 21:59

EasternStandard · 26/02/2026 21:58

I don’t think you’ve got much for previous claims.

Show quote history

Do you have a link for me that shows Brexit has had no impact?

PinkiOcelot · 26/02/2026 21:59

LlynTegid · 26/02/2026 16:07

I would have a bit of respect for those who voted Leave if they acknowledged it was a mistake and that the small boat migration has been one of the unforeseen consequences.

I was just saying this to my DH last week. I voted leave, but definitely would not if I had my chance again. Nothing we were told was the truth. Absolutely nothing!

WilfredsPies · 26/02/2026 22:00

hedgeknight · 26/02/2026 21:57

Ok, you haven't anything.

Thanks

Show quote history

😂 That’s my whole point, neither of us have anything other than opinions. The only difference is that mine makes sense and yours doesn’t.

WilfredsPies · 26/02/2026 22:01

hedgeknight · 26/02/2026 21:59

Do you have a link for me that shows Brexit has had no impact?

Show quote history

Do you have a link that says it has?

Edited to correct shocking grammar

ByQuaintAzureWasp · 26/02/2026 22:02

Work9to5 · 26/02/2026 15:52

YANBU but the world has moved on a bit since Brexit. European countries are leaning more to the right; so many of the African nations are at war or having economic crises. There are a lot of non Brexit reasons for people being on the move. I'm not convinced that immigration wouldn't be an issue if Brexit hadn't happened due to the numbers.

I don't know if immigration would have been managed any better without Brexit as I've no pre Brexit experience.

We could send them back to France when we were in Europe ... hence why they had the migrant camps at Calais. Now they are all here in the UK.

WilfredsPies · 26/02/2026 22:09

ByQuaintAzureWasp · 26/02/2026 22:02

We could send them back to France when we were in Europe ... hence why they had the migrant camps at Calais. Now they are all here in the UK.

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🤦‍♀️

No, we couldn’t just ‘send them back to France’ when we were in the EU.

We are still in Europe. It’s a continent.

The migrant camps in France had sweet FA to do with the Dublin agreement.

EasternStandard · 26/02/2026 22:13

ByQuaintAzureWasp · 26/02/2026 22:02

We could send them back to France when we were in Europe ... hence why they had the migrant camps at Calais. Now they are all here in the UK.

Show quote history

Where are you picking this misinformation up from? It’s not close.