To reckon that Reform will win the next election, and to be utterly terrified about it? 😪

[mumofoneAloneandwell]

i am a leftie

I think they’ll win

If don’t, they’ll have the majority in a hung parliament and govern as a minority party before joining with the Tories.

i’m going to tighten my belt re running my home and prepare for onslaught as the country becomes unrecognisable

They wont win. But they might get the tories in by taking some labour votes. Which i wont be happy about.
Tbf im no fan of labour either but I di think they are better than the tories and reform.
I seriously doubt reform will win
You dont just need to votes of the stupid. You need the votes of the wealthy too.. the tories sometimes father those two groups but reform wont because they are too shit basically. They couldn't run country. No sensible person will vote for them no matter how right wing they may feel. Because they know they can't actually implement the majority of what they bang on about. And if they tried it would make such a mess of the country people would lose a lot of money

i wish there was more reporting on the funding/donors to Reform. There is a reason they have suddenly raised abortion law and death penalty as issues: the american conservative right has lashed a whole load of cash to Reform, and they definitely have an agenda that should be made clear to every voter.

I'm living on hope that not enough people seriously want them in, but I'm also haunted by the Brexit voters who were wailing and gnashing their teeth afterwards that ' I only did it as a protest vote and didn't really want to leave'. I think dumb-ass 'protest votes' may tip the balance to Reform. We need a clear multi-party campaign against expressing your disatisfaction in this way.

The Times? who backed Brexit... of course we didn't send back enough migrants, thats because the last Govt was incompetent.

I'd rather listen to Chris Philp .. backed up by Mel Stride, senior members in the last Tory Govt, both have said NOT being in the Dublin Agreement has limited how they can deport migrants.

On other EU countries, we dont have a open land border (other than NI) and aren't in Schengen.

In the EU hardly anyone cross via the channel, the moment we left officially, numbers rocketed.... wonder why?

Will be hard to get the Tories on board & as far as i can see, are more to the right than Reform.

She wants a "Deportations Force" & announced this long before Reform, who haven't gone this far, they are considering it.

Badenoch said yesterday "open to ideas from the right but not the left..."

So presumably doesn't want the NHS, maternity & worker rights, universal education....

What about Labour’s catastrophic economic suicide of a Net Zero policy that makes our country have among the highest electricity prices in the world.

What about the Chagos Island deal that will cost 3.4 billion for absolutely nothing in return.

What about the self ID infrastructure that no one wants or voted for that will cost 1.8 billion
even though it’s slightly rolled back

To name a few of their amazing recent decisions,

We haven’t seen anything yet until we get the shit storm that is Reform in power.
You’ve only got to look at the States.

Net Zero was an inherited Tory policy, we had the highest energy prices long before Labour came to power and Labour have rolled it back, with many "Green taxes" going in April.
Net Zero has also created over 500k jobs, would you like to get rid of those?

According to a military expert (Michael Clarke) the deal allows us to "legally" keep enemy ships out of Chagosian waters, atm we have no basis to be able to that.

If ID reduces tax evasion and limits the black economy, whats wrong with that? its not as if the Govt doesn't already know all about you in any case, an awful lot of scare mongering over this....

The irony is, people moan about privacy whilst handing over all their details to private SM websites and buy/sell sites..... & thats before we get onto what HMRC know about you....

Research the Dublin agreement. It involved tiny numbers, our neighbours in Europe resisted every attempt to return migrants despite overwhelming evidence and we were net recipients nearly every year. Given geography and migrant flows this was absurd and demonstrates how our near neighbours always took advantage of the UK Home Office incompetence. Facts matter even when other aspects of your argument are possibly valid.

There is a reason they have suddenly raised abortion law and death penalty as issues: the american conservative right has lashed a whole load of cash to Reform, and they definitely have an agenda that should be made clear to every voter.

Americans don't quite understand the differences between their system and ours. Abortion is subject to Act of Parliament. Not a politicised Court. Parliament stopped the Death Penalty being used. It is impossible to see that huge numbers of our population across all classes and all political parties would support either being changed.
Stop scaremongering, neither can happen.

Anyone? How exactly do you think he became an MP? I accept your views are honestly held but can you really ignore the fact that thousands of people in Clacton did vote for him. Also millions in the country voted Reform. More than voted for Lib Dem’s. These are facts. Facts matter even if they don’t validate your views.

You ve nailed it "Home Office Incompetence"

I'm well aware of the numbers but the fact remains, migrants didn't cross the channel prior to the UK leaving the EU, the channel didn't get narrower in 2021.

I would also suggest that Philp and Stride have a better grasp of the facts than you or i.

Dublin gave us the legal means to deport, if France refused, there are legal means to pursue to force them too, we don't have that now, France can just say "non" and there is zilch we can do about.

The hoops people will jump through to deny this, is incredible to see.

Yep. It’s easy to look up the numbers rather than repeat misinformation. Plus it’s not just here numbers are low in every country. We had peak asylum in 2002 until recently.

Chris Philp not only admitted that leaving the EU meant it was much harder to deport migrants, he also said "that the Boris Johnson Govt hadn't understood the EU rules on asylum"

Well, if a Govt fails to understand the rules (who had ever heard of Dublin Agreement until after Brexit?) then its hardly surprising we failed to deport.

Numbers from 24 or 25 years ago, are pertinent as one might ask why they came down until 2021......

You are right, about the Conservatives, they implemented Net Zero and high immigration, it was becoming a consensus ‘Uni party’ until Reform and the Greens showed up.

The amount of jobs created by Green Energy are very over exaggerated, most manufacturing and production is done in China and we continue to loose investment and jobs from high energy prices.

https://x.com/latimeralder/status/1841020424248779100?s=46&t=KoykWa-IFitZMrteWP2pKA

The Chagos deal hands the Chagos Islands over to Mauritius (Friend of China)against the wishes of the indigenous population and we have to pay 3.4 billion (10 billion over 99 years adjusting inflation).
If you own something and pay no rent it is better than paying rent.

The people of Clacton are angry! Farage has not fulfilled a single promise he made to the people of Clacton. He is paid nearly 100k a year of tax payers money as an MP and he’s not dealt with a single issue. If people think he has any interest in improving the lives of British people they are extremely deluded.

Yes, I’ve seen several reports on how Germany was struggling to send back asylum seekers.
I remember a particular case where a Syrian asylum seeker was supposed to be sent back to Bulgaria.
Germany had requested and received approval for his transfer, a deportation date was scheduled, but when the authorities showed up at his accommodation it turned out that he had absconded.
According to the Asylum Information Database, a transfer must occur within six months of the agreement. Because he could not be found, the deadline expired, and Germany legally became responsible for his asylum claim.
This case was particularly tragic because a year later he attacked and killed three people at a festival in Germany.

Totally agree on manufacturing but tell that to the 1600 employees in Siemens E Yorks plant or the workers on Teeside.

55k employed directly in wind turbine industry & its growing...

Net Zero yes but on migration at 1.5m to 2m gross per year, no consensus.

Stopping net zero wont create more manufacturing in similar numbers, nor bring down prices, we'd then have to fund gas power stations and more nuclear... at huge cost, still need the network improvements too.

On Chagos, do we own it? International courts say no don't they?

Yes the population should have a say... would tearing up this deal draw Mauritius to China or not? What if the population say Yes to China and No to the UK/USA?

So Dublin Agreement worked but due to the incompetence of the authorities, they "lost" him and he went on to kill.

Hardly an argument against Dublin......

The numbers are low everywhere. If it was a send everyone back mechanism only a few countries would hold all the entrants. Eg Greece, Spain, Italy and Germany, ROI etc could ‘send them all back’

It’s false information that they can do this. The DA has difficult criteria and people need to be accepted. It’s on every thread but the numbers don’t reflect the claim.

@inamarina also, DA cannot send all back.... only those who have previously registered, so around 50% of X channel migrants.

No one has suggested "Send them ALL back"

Not even Chris Philp, though i do wonder how long he'll be in the Tory party

Yes it is, as it simply just didn’t work. Look at the stats. Tiny numbers, UK net recipient, extremely difficult to use. People who quote this are blindly ignoring the facts. This does not mean that other options for Europe wide cooperation might not have been effective but this wasn’t and no others appear to have been implemented. The one in one out scheme upscaled might bear fruit but again numbers are tiny and the UK is again a net recipient.

How did it work? In theory perhaps.
I’ve just googled the recent numbers for Germany:

2024 Performance: Out of 74,583 outgoing Dublin transfer requests made by Germany in 2024, only 5,827 were actually implemented. This represents a success rate of approximately 7.8%.
In the first half of 2025, Germany reportedly made 20,574 applications but only returned 3,109 individuals, a slight improvement to a 15% success rate.

Barriers to Transfers
The low percentage is attributed to several factors:

• Absconding: As seen in high-profile cases, many individuals go into hiding or "abscond" on the day of their planned deportation to let the legal transfer deadline (usually 6 months) expire.
• Non-Cooperation from Other States: Italy and Greece have frequently refused to accept transfers. For example, in 2024, Italy accepted only 3 individuals despite agreeing to over 10,000 requests.
• Legal Challenges: German courts have occasionally blocked transfers to countries like Greece and Italy, citing concerns over "inhuman or degrading" conditions for refugees there.

The country having to accept is a major barrier, plus the others. That’s why it’s not worth citing as an agreement that meant many were sent back. It’s not the case.

They didn’t cross the channel because they came in the back of lorries. Technology improved so there was increased detection so they started using small boats. Nothing to do with EU membership.
Dublin did not stop France saying “non”. They and many other European countries did just that all the time while we were part of the agreement regardless of the evidence that they were legally obliged to take the migrants back. That’s why the Uk was a net recipient which was totally absurd considering geography and migrant flows.
Philip and Stride may “know” more than me but they are politicians who in every party don’t let facts interfere with ideology.
i don’t need to jump through any hoops as the facts support my views.