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Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To reckon that Reform will win the next election, and to be utterly terrified about it? 😪

584 replies

mumofoneAloneandwell · 26/01/2026 14:33

i am a leftie

I think they’ll win

If don’t, they’ll have the majority in a hung parliament and govern as a minority party before joining with the Tories.

i’m going to tighten my belt re running my home and prepare for onslaught as the country becomes unrecognisable

OP posts:
Thread gallery
10
BeAmberZebra · 29/01/2026 08:46

inamarina · 29/01/2026 08:30

How did it work? In theory perhaps.
I’ve just googled the recent numbers for Germany:

2024 Performance: Out of 74,583 outgoing Dublin transfer requests made by Germany in 2024, only 5,827 were actually implemented. This represents a success rate of approximately 7.8%.
In the first half of 2025, Germany reportedly made 20,574 applications but only returned 3,109 individuals, a slight improvement to a 15% success rate.

Barriers to Transfers
The low percentage is attributed to several factors:

  • Absconding: As seen in high-profile cases, many individuals go into hiding or "abscond" on the day of their planned deportation to let the legal transfer deadline (usually 6 months) expire.
  • Non-Cooperation from Other States: Italy and Greece have frequently refused to accept transfers. For example, in 2024, Italy accepted only 3 individuals despite agreeing to over 10,000 requests.
  • Legal Challenges: German courts have occasionally blocked transfers to countries like Greece and Italy, citing concerns over "inhuman or degrading" conditions for refugees there.

Hey you know your stuff. Well done. However facts simply don’t matter to many posters on here.

Clubbiscuit · 29/01/2026 08:48

Lockdownsceptic · 28/01/2026 23:45

Of course they have. Our economy is in a much worse state now than it was then. Taxes are higher, interest rates are higher, the national dept is higher and we are paying more interest on that debt. On top of that GDP has hit rock bottom.

This is just not true. Plus it’s debt - not dept.

Alexandra2001 · 29/01/2026 08:55

BeAmberZebra · 29/01/2026 08:36

They didn’t cross the channel because they came in the back of lorries. Technology improved so there was increased detection so they started using small boats. Nothing to do with EU membership.
Dublin did not stop France saying “non”. They and many other European countries did just that all the time while we were part of the agreement regardless of the evidence that they were legally obliged to take the migrants back. That’s why the Uk was a net recipient which was totally absurd considering geography and migrant flows.
Philip and Stride may “know” more than me but they are politicians who in every party don’t let facts interfere with ideology.
i don’t need to jump through any hoops as the facts support my views.

Err? Philp and Strides unguarded comments do not back up their public ideology... they back up the truth that Brexitiers don't like....

Yes they came in lorries and as you say numbers continued to drop and drop for over 20 years, due to French/UK co operation, the channel was always there, yet never used.
Plus numbers crossing in lorries were small in relation to boats.

Can you cite the new tech that meant migrants forced to use the channel by 2020?
Funny this "tech" coincided with UK officially leaving the EU....

I've already explained the reasons why low numbers but as i said, countries refusing to take returnees can be dealt with in law, DA acted as a deterrent.

Hoops? you're still doing it.

Laurmolonlabe · 29/01/2026 08:59

It's a worry, but like the last several governments we have had, because the government has sold all it's assets and is functionally bankrupt (whoever gets in) there is very little they can do- as long as Nigel doesn't manage to crash the economy and the markets like Liz Truss he will just have 4 years of pecking away at problems taxing us into extinction (the only way they can fund anything) so he'll lose popularity and become just a distasteful memory- exactly the same as Keir Starmer.

BeAmberZebra · 29/01/2026 09:01

Alexandra2001 · 29/01/2026 08:55

Err? Philp and Strides unguarded comments do not back up their public ideology... they back up the truth that Brexitiers don't like....

Yes they came in lorries and as you say numbers continued to drop and drop for over 20 years, due to French/UK co operation, the channel was always there, yet never used.
Plus numbers crossing in lorries were small in relation to boats.

Can you cite the new tech that meant migrants forced to use the channel by 2020?
Funny this "tech" coincided with UK officially leaving the EU....

I've already explained the reasons why low numbers but as i said, countries refusing to take returnees can be dealt with in law, DA acted as a deterrent.

Hoops? you're still doing it.

Re technology . Quick google check. AI Overview

UK Border Force uses advanced technology, including
CO2 probes, heartbeat detectors, sniffer dogs, and mobile scanning units to detect migrants hiding in lorries at Channel ports, with over 35,000 such detections recorded between 2018–2021.

will get back to you on other points shortly .

EasternStandard · 29/01/2026 09:03

BeAmberZebra · 29/01/2026 08:46

Hey you know your stuff. Well done. However facts simply don’t matter to many posters on here.

The false info on here is pushed regarding the DA generally. In the media too.

BIossomtoes · 29/01/2026 09:05

BeAmberZebra · 29/01/2026 08:46

Hey you know your stuff. Well done. However facts simply don’t matter to many posters on here.

They certainly don’t. Hence posts about the economy being in a worse state than it was after Truss. Pure fabrication.

BeAmberZebra · 29/01/2026 09:08

BeAmberZebra · 29/01/2026 09:01

Re technology . Quick google check. AI Overview

UK Border Force uses advanced technology, including
CO2 probes, heartbeat detectors, sniffer dogs, and mobile scanning units to detect migrants hiding in lorries at Channel ports, with over 35,000 such detections recorded between 2018–2021.

will get back to you on other points shortly .

DA never acted as a deterrent. The law couldn’t be used effectively to force countries to take their migrants back partly because they simply didn’t t want to and partly because of the barriers to transfer as explained by inamarina in the above post. If it could have been used as a deterrent it would have been many years ago and it still is not working today for EU members if you look at the numbers and flows.

EasternStandard · 29/01/2026 09:09

BeAmberZebra · 29/01/2026 09:08

DA never acted as a deterrent. The law couldn’t be used effectively to force countries to take their migrants back partly because they simply didn’t t want to and partly because of the barriers to transfer as explained by inamarina in the above post. If it could have been used as a deterrent it would have been many years ago and it still is not working today for EU members if you look at the numbers and flows.

Yep. This is obvious and clear in the numbers so why is the narrative established against that. Who does it serve to create that misinformation?

Alexandra2001 · 29/01/2026 09:21

BeAmberZebra · 29/01/2026 09:01

Re technology . Quick google check. AI Overview

UK Border Force uses advanced technology, including
CO2 probes, heartbeat detectors, sniffer dogs, and mobile scanning units to detect migrants hiding in lorries at Channel ports, with over 35,000 such detections recorded between 2018–2021.

will get back to you on other points shortly .

All of that has been available for many years and course, due to being in the EU we could have an agreement to have joint borders in each others countries.

AI : UK Border Force (and its predecessor, the Immigration Service) began using carbon dioxide detectors to combat people smuggling in the early 2000s, with significant, high-tech, and widespread deployment occurring by roughly 2001.

Initial Deployment: By September 2001, the UK government was deploying high-tech tools—including

  • 𝐶𝑂2 detectors, heartbeat monitors, and scanners—to detect clandestine migrants hidden in vehicles and freight.

Incredible migrants only realised there was a short stretch of water nearby in 2020.... 19 years later.....

By "Law" i mean the ECJ... we could also have threatened holding back our contributions too, as i believe a certain female PM did do a while back, to get what she believed was in the UK interests...

No such levers now....

On narrative, ask Philp why he pushed it..... though of course, the pro brexit lobby wont accept any downsides to their ideology.

teaandtoastwouldbenice · 29/01/2026 09:25

It’s an awful prospect but I think what is worse and possibly more likely is some sort of reform/tory coalition.
In politics it seems that when things are bad and you think they can’t get any worse, they do.

BeAmberZebra · 29/01/2026 09:36

Alexandra2001 · 29/01/2026 09:21

All of that has been available for many years and course, due to being in the EU we could have an agreement to have joint borders in each others countries.

AI : UK Border Force (and its predecessor, the Immigration Service) began using carbon dioxide detectors to combat people smuggling in the early 2000s, with significant, high-tech, and widespread deployment occurring by roughly 2001.

Initial Deployment: By September 2001, the UK government was deploying high-tech tools—including

  • 𝐶𝑂2 detectors, heartbeat monitors, and scanners—to detect clandestine migrants hidden in vehicles and freight.

Incredible migrants only realised there was a short stretch of water nearby in 2020.... 19 years later.....

By "Law" i mean the ECJ... we could also have threatened holding back our contributions too, as i believe a certain female PM did do a while back, to get what she believed was in the UK interests...

No such levers now....

On narrative, ask Philp why he pushed it..... though of course, the pro brexit lobby wont accept any downsides to their ideology.

Edited

Can’t quite follow you here. You asked what the technology was and I answered.
its interesting on how it developed but again without research I had understood it had greatly improved in later years and this prompted the move to the boats. I don’t think anyone would have taken this incredibly dangerously journey over the channel if the lorries were an alternative and leaving the EU didn’t make the lorry route more attractive or viable or it would be being used rather than the boats.

Re using the ECJ. Not sure if it was ever tried but if it would have been effective why wasn’t it for so many years and why isn’t it being used by EU countries who still have the same problem today.

decenteringmen · 29/01/2026 09:37

LOL

of course they're going to win, and it will he entirely our own fault for not doing anything sooner. Look at America, white people only started giving a shit when a white woman got murdered by an ICE agent, because all you ever do is ignore things until it affects you directly, and then clutch pearls when you finally see.

We have our own home office sanctioned version of ICE, and hordes of dickheads shouting at hotels while completely ignoring the violent men in their idiot ranks.

Well done Britain, well done.

explanationplease · 29/01/2026 10:12

Clubbiscuit · 28/01/2026 00:10

They are doing decent things but the billionaire- owned media just isn’t sharing them. Google what Labour have done in your area and you’ll be surprised.

The interviews they do have could make much clearer the benefits of their style of politics over vile Reform ideology. Instead they waffle, and worse, sometimes copy. I would like to be far more impressed than I have been for my loyal(to date) vote.

MrsOlderButWiser · 29/01/2026 14:54

Khayker · 27/01/2026 18:33

Personally, I think you're bonkers worrying about Reform being elected. I'm actually worried for everyone that Starmer will stay and Labour will limp on until the next election. That won't happen now though. He's stopped Andy Burnam from standing for Labour so the far left will be up in arms. Will Starmer change his mind? Why not he's done it 14 times in 18 months already so another once shouldn't make a difference. Reform are not going to charge for NHS at the point of contact. They will be cutting benefit bills and they will be dealing with the problems of immigration, justice, prisons, taxes and the list goes on. Why would anyone want a government that hates its own voters, prioritises migrants over the UK residents. Do you realise we tranlate English in this country into 29 different languages, only country in the world that does this. Just an example of the woke nonsense employed by this government. Be afraid of Labour and the Tories, neither tell the truth and if anyone thinks that voting for a hypnotist with the power to change breast sizes or Ed who presided over the post office scandal is a good idea, you really need help.

If you think for one minute that Reform UK will improve things in this country you are burying your head in the sand. A party run by a millionaire, full of failed Tories who ruined this country by their incompetence, billionaire donors. They're looking down on the UK population laughing their nads off at how many are swallowing the Patriotic stop the boats narrative. Just look at the US. ICE murdering law abiding citizens, food prices through the roof and people losing their homes because of medical bills. I have a friend in the US and they don't like what is happening in their neighborhood.

BeAmberZebra · 29/01/2026 15:08

MrsOlderButWiser · 29/01/2026 14:54

If you think for one minute that Reform UK will improve things in this country you are burying your head in the sand. A party run by a millionaire, full of failed Tories who ruined this country by their incompetence, billionaire donors. They're looking down on the UK population laughing their nads off at how many are swallowing the Patriotic stop the boats narrative. Just look at the US. ICE murdering law abiding citizens, food prices through the roof and people losing their homes because of medical bills. I have a friend in the US and they don't like what is happening in their neighborhood.

This isn’t the US and Farage is not Trump. These things simply will not happen and are not Reform policies. Nobody will lose their house because of medical bills as it will always be free at the point of use although under the current and previous government this was cold comfort as medical care was and is impossible to access without absurd waits. In the UK prices for food and everything else is going through the roof as a result of Labours actions. The people murdering law abiding citizens in this country are not the police or border force.
Farage derangement is getting absurd.

Khayker · 29/01/2026 15:26

MrsOlderButWiser · 29/01/2026 14:54

If you think for one minute that Reform UK will improve things in this country you are burying your head in the sand. A party run by a millionaire, full of failed Tories who ruined this country by their incompetence, billionaire donors. They're looking down on the UK population laughing their nads off at how many are swallowing the Patriotic stop the boats narrative. Just look at the US. ICE murdering law abiding citizens, food prices through the roof and people losing their homes because of medical bills. I have a friend in the US and they don't like what is happening in their neighborhood.

How nieve are you? Do you honestly think Starmer isn't a millionaire? He ownes assets in London in excess of £4,000,000 on top of his cash assets which have never been made public. Ed Milliband on the other hand has made his financial status clear, he's worth £15,000,000. I suggest you look again at what you've said and get your head out of the sand. We are not America, we don't carry guns and generally those law enforcement officers in the UK that do carry guns rarely shoot anyone. The people ICE are targetting albeit in a rather blunt way are rapist, drug dealers, paedophiles and overstayers. They are doing it to protect the public. In this country, we do very little to protect ourselves from a minority of the immigrants in this country that commit the same crimes as those illegal immigrants in USA. Why would anyone in the USA be supporting these vile people and interfering in an arrest which will only have one winner. The key to not becoming the USA is to learn from their mistakes and intervene before it gets too late to stop the influx of undocumented males. As far as health is concerned Farage has repeatedly said the NHS will be free at the point of contact which is the case now. Having not long paid out £1,400 for a tooth extraction which if left could have had serious health implications, I can say without a shadow of a doubt, the NHS is overburdened as my only other choice would have been to wait 2 years for my turn. Not much point having something 'free' if you can't access it. So think again about your choices, being gullible is not an excuse to inflict these Labour/Conservative politicians on us for a moment longer.

Hazlenuts2016 · 29/01/2026 16:01

@Khayker after the fiasco of Brexit, which has wiped billions off the economy ( as well as led to a rise in the very illegal immigration he is powering his campaign on) can you honestly believe a word Farage says? Of course their manifesto won't say they are going to remove access to the nhs for those who can't pay. Because he would lose most of his voters if he did.

EarthlyNightshade · 29/01/2026 16:02

Mrsknowitall · 29/01/2026 00:02

Open your eyes, the country is already unrecognisable! How could it possibly get any worse?

Do you really think there are no countries worse than the UK?

MrsOlderButWiser · 29/01/2026 16:09

@Khayker and @BeAmberZebra I will not be voting for Reform UK. I work in the NHS and I can assure you that you are spreading misinformation on a huge scale!
Yes we have a back log of patients, we are working hard to see everyone, but we've had severe underfunding from the Conservatives for many years and a pandemic to deal with. It can't be fixed by getting rid of immigrant colleagues who work their backsides off in many of the other departments within the hospital or the care industry. I believe the current government are trying to address this, but it won't be fixed overnight.

BeAmberZebra · 29/01/2026 16:48

MrsOlderButWiser · 29/01/2026 16:09

@Khayker and @BeAmberZebra I will not be voting for Reform UK. I work in the NHS and I can assure you that you are spreading misinformation on a huge scale!
Yes we have a back log of patients, we are working hard to see everyone, but we've had severe underfunding from the Conservatives for many years and a pandemic to deal with. It can't be fixed by getting rid of immigrant colleagues who work their backsides off in many of the other departments within the hospital or the care industry. I believe the current government are trying to address this, but it won't be fixed overnight.

When did I mention immigrants? My problem and lots of others problem with the NHS is massive inefficiency, poor systems and inability, as in most government or local authority structures, to get rid of incompetent staff.
We have all come across the angels who should be paid double but also the people who would have been sacked fairly quickly in the private sector.
We have all had very positive experiences with amazing staff providing great care but have also had experiences where lack of communication, inefficiency and general incompetence has led to wasted time and resources leaving patients untreated and in pain.
A bizarre amount of money is spent and by most metrics we are having worse outcomes than many comparable European countries. We are spending increasing amount of GDP with less and less effect.
There are not only two options being the appalling US system and “our” NHS. This needs thought and pragmatism which only Reform has the appetite for before it bankrupts the country and we all die in our beds waiting for treatment. Reform will always protect the NHS but will also save it and make it work.
There are many productive and wonderful immigrants working in the NHS. However there are also many immigrants on the waiting lists leaving aside the resources being used by the illegals. We are also taking healthcare workers from some of the poorest countries in the world rather than training our own. So the NHS immigrants calculation is a two edged sword in many ways which also needs some careful and compassionate thought.

Khayker · 29/01/2026 18:47

MrsOlderButWiser · 29/01/2026 16:09

@Khayker and @BeAmberZebra I will not be voting for Reform UK. I work in the NHS and I can assure you that you are spreading misinformation on a huge scale!
Yes we have a back log of patients, we are working hard to see everyone, but we've had severe underfunding from the Conservatives for many years and a pandemic to deal with. It can't be fixed by getting rid of immigrant colleagues who work their backsides off in many of the other departments within the hospital or the care industry. I believe the current government are trying to address this, but it won't be fixed overnight.

The NHS is undr pressure from the extra burden of immigration and the NHS is not underfunded, the funding is wasted for example defending the case for transgender men to use women's spaces. There is no accountability in NHS for the amount of waste produced. Here's something you may find interesting to support what I've written
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/insight-and-analysis/blogs/holding-the-nhs-to-account-wasteful-resources
Taxpayers cannot carry on like this, putting money into the service and getting little out or paying for immigrants who have never contributed. I once worked with Public Health Wales on a project looking at systems, not just computer systems but how services were delivered and the amount of bureaucracy was frightening. My own personal experience of the NHS came on 17th December 2019. My mother had a stroke and led on a kitchen floor for 9 hours waiting for an ambulance. The ambulance took that long because they were stuck at A & E being used as triage units. When we got to the hospital we waited another hour befor anyone saw her. She died a month later after never regaining consciousness and an appalling lack of treatment on the ward by the nurses on duty. I never want anyone to go through that and as much as I had apologies from the Trust, nothing has changed. You may think you work hard but I know the nurses on that ward didn't and the agency nurses on the nightshift had to be dragged out of the back room to attend to, not just my mother but my husban who was recovering from a hemicolectomy, my father in law who had dementia and my mother in law who the ward nurses 'forgot' to give medication to after a bowel cancer op. I've had a lot of experience of NHS and for the above reasons I will be voting Reform. Nobody else should die from, waste, inefficiency and a lack of accoutability.

Alexandra2001 · 29/01/2026 18:48

BeAmberZebra · 29/01/2026 09:36

Can’t quite follow you here. You asked what the technology was and I answered.
its interesting on how it developed but again without research I had understood it had greatly improved in later years and this prompted the move to the boats. I don’t think anyone would have taken this incredibly dangerously journey over the channel if the lorries were an alternative and leaving the EU didn’t make the lorry route more attractive or viable or it would be being used rather than the boats.

Re using the ECJ. Not sure if it was ever tried but if it would have been effective why wasn’t it for so many years and why isn’t it being used by EU countries who still have the same problem today.

No, i asked which NEW tech would explain why in 2020 so many decided to go via the channel instead.

BIossomtoes · 29/01/2026 18:51

The NHS is undr pressure from the extra burden of immigration

It would be under a hell of a lot more pressure without its immigrant staff.

Alexandra2001 · 29/01/2026 18:57

Khayker · 29/01/2026 18:47

The NHS is undr pressure from the extra burden of immigration and the NHS is not underfunded, the funding is wasted for example defending the case for transgender men to use women's spaces. There is no accountability in NHS for the amount of waste produced. Here's something you may find interesting to support what I've written
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/insight-and-analysis/blogs/holding-the-nhs-to-account-wasteful-resources
Taxpayers cannot carry on like this, putting money into the service and getting little out or paying for immigrants who have never contributed. I once worked with Public Health Wales on a project looking at systems, not just computer systems but how services were delivered and the amount of bureaucracy was frightening. My own personal experience of the NHS came on 17th December 2019. My mother had a stroke and led on a kitchen floor for 9 hours waiting for an ambulance. The ambulance took that long because they were stuck at A & E being used as triage units. When we got to the hospital we waited another hour befor anyone saw her. She died a month later after never regaining consciousness and an appalling lack of treatment on the ward by the nurses on duty. I never want anyone to go through that and as much as I had apologies from the Trust, nothing has changed. You may think you work hard but I know the nurses on that ward didn't and the agency nurses on the nightshift had to be dragged out of the back room to attend to, not just my mother but my husban who was recovering from a hemicolectomy, my father in law who had dementia and my mother in law who the ward nurses 'forgot' to give medication to after a bowel cancer op. I've had a lot of experience of NHS and for the above reasons I will be voting Reform. Nobody else should die from, waste, inefficiency and a lack of accoutability.

Need to read the link ....

The first saving is a theoretical 300m if ALL the medicines thrown away, were not... that simply wouldn't happen.

The second is on energy waste, caused by under investment in building... ie under funding.

Third is Single Use and they give the example of baby feeding bottles, yes i m very sure new mums would be happy with that, same with gowns, what next re use masks??

Plus even if ALL these saving could be achieved, its a small % of total NHS funding.... it wouldn't transform the situation.

Which is decades of 1 or 2 % less than our European neighbours have spent and over time, that adds up to huge differences.

Immigrants? well most are young, so yes to maternity services but when i go to my hospital and GP surgery, its packed full of the white indigenous elderly and our waiting lists are some of the worst in the country.... with very large numbers of black and brown faces among the staff......

I'm sorry you had a terrible NHS experience, my FiL is not getting great treatment either atm, its very disappointing, however, Reform will make matters worse, i ve seen nothing that suggests otherwise, the first thing that will happen is immigrant staff leaving....

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