To wonder if anyone has or is considering moving to a country that's less likely to be involved if Putin attacks a NATO country. (title edited by MNHQ at request of OP)

[Carla786]

I hope that if WW3 happened, I'd be brave enough to stay and fight. I love Britain & I'd hate to leave it or see it invaded by Putin.

However, at the same time I'm wondering about the recent rush of articles suggesting conflict with Russia is inevitable by around 2030 and that civilians need to prepare to be conscripted to fight if NATO is attacked. I'd always thought Britain being land-invaded was fairly unlikely, but being called up to fight in a NATO war widens the options of what might happen.

Countries that are less likely to be involved include Austria, Switzerland, New Zealand, Republic of Ireland. I don't particularly want to move to any of these. If call-ups are likely to be imminent in about 4 years, I don't know..

The country I've always thought I'd move to if I did move is Poland (where I have family ties)- but of course that's far more likely to be involved in a potential war!

Isn’t that affected by climate change, though?

That’s more of a threat than Putin IMO.

When NATO’s Secretary General Mark Rutte addressed Chatham House in June, he stated that Russia ‘could be ready to use military force against NATO within five years‘. He thus gave voice to what might be called the ‘known future’: a widespread consensus, even a growing certainty, about a coming war with Russia. The question is not whether, but when Russia will attack. Indeed, there are over 35 official western declarations that envisage a potential Russian attack on NATO leading to war: scenarios predict a time scale (by 2030), the location (an invasion of the Baltic States), and the tactics (ever more drones).

Russian war strategy frames a war against a coalition (such as NATO) not as a limited campaign, but as a ‘regional war’ involving the whole European theatre, or, more likely given international alliances, a ‘large scale war’, global in nature. . In other words, a Russian invasion of the Baltic States would probably not be a localised conflict: scenarios should assume a war across the European theatre involving the use of a much greater level of mobilised state strategic capacity.

President Putin has repeatedly said that changes in the world order such as we are seeing today ‘have usually been accompanied by, if not global war and conflict, then by chains of intensive local-level conflicts’. And in December 2024, Defence Minister Andrei Belousov stated that Russia’s armed forces must be ready for any events, including a possible war with ‘NATO in Europe in the next decade’.

Senior Russian officials have indicated where Moscow sees potential threats. Some point to potential flash-points in the Baltic and in the Arctic. Other scenarios reflect concern about the eruption of conflict in the Pacific, especially between the US and China – which would also be categorised in Russian strategic terms possibly as a ‘regional’ or, more likely, a ‘large-scale’ war.

https://engelsbergideas.com/notebook/how-russia-sees-the-next-war/

Some interesting points here, though the article sensibly points out that Russia has had serious problems fighting Ukraine, let alone the whole of NATO.

Stopped reading this at the words “Daily Mail”.

Hopefully it will not. 🙏

If someone is sincerely opposed to fighting in any form, one can register as a conscientious objector and be assigned to a home front job. That requires explaining to a tribunal, they don't grant them lightly of course.

I know. As I said, the best articles I read on this are not DM ones. Posting them in a minute.

The man in that article is very important to our armed forces. Here's a BBC article which reports it much better

We need more people ready to fight, military chief says
Sir Richard Knighton speaking behind a lectern.
15 December 2025
895 Comments
The UK needs "more people being ready to fight for their country" as the nation seeks to deter a potential confrontation with Russia, the head of the military has said.

Chief of the Defence Staff Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton said "a whole-of-society response" was needed, including an increase in regular forces, cadets and reserves.

He also called for more school leavers and graduates to join the defence industry.

While the chief of the defence staff suggested there was only a remote chance of a direct Russian attack on the UK, he told an event at the Royal United Services Institute that so-called hybrid attacks showed the threat was worsening.

Sir Richard said: "Sons and daughters. Colleagues. Veterans will all have a role to play. To build. To serve. And if necessary, to fight.
"And more families will know what sacrifice for our nation means."

At the same time, Russia's military had become a "hard power [which] is growing quickly".

While Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine had been a strategic failure, he said, "we should be under no illusions that Russia has a massive, increasingly technically sophisticated, and now highly combat-experienced military".

Sir Richard, who became chief of the defence staff in September, said the UK needed to make itself a "harder target" for hybrid threats and to avoid war.
In recent weeks, both France and Germany have outlined plans for voluntary national service.

Sir Richard said he found himself in a position none of his predecessors had "looking at the prospect of the largest sustained increase in defence spending since the end of the Cold War".

The government announced earlier this year that UK defence and security spending would rise to 5% of GDP by 2035 at the latest.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62vd7dkdpyo

The situation isn't so rosy in Iceland either as the new ambassador appointed by Trump referred to the country as the 52nd state of the USA

It's hard to know where is safe especially now the USA has decided to follow a colonial strategy on many fronts - declaring their intention to take control in Venezuela, Iran, Greenland, Canada? .... and that is only this year!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/15/anger-iceland-incoming-us-ambassador-52nd-state-joke

I get that. Trump hasn't actually invaded Iran though & is unlikely to. Venezuela he's kidnapped Maduro but not actually invaded the country.

Canada & Iceland - hopefully posturing but won't actually do anything?

Greenland...I don't know...

This article offers more detail :

The Defence Select Committee member added: "Obviously if we get in a shooting war with Russia, then we're going to have conscription. There's no doubt about that.
"I don't think that's the right thing now. I think now it's about rebuilding the professional forces and that looks like at a minimum, an Army of above 100,000 back where it was 10/15 years ago."

Retired Lieutenant Colonel Stuart Crawford said the prospect of conscription "shouldn't be dismissed out of hand".

"The British Army is the smallest it has been since Waterloo and if we entered a major conventional war against Russia then we don't have enough troops," he said.

He continued: "The Army traditionally dislikes conscripts and prefers to work on the principle that 'one volunteer is worth ten pressed men'. But numbers matter and if we can't recruit sufficient volunteers then conscription may be necessary.

"How it is applied is another debate altogether, but younger single men and women would seem to be the obvious target demographic."

Ex-Conservative defence minister Tobias Ellwood, a former soldier and chair of the Defence Select Committee, added: "After what's happened so far this year, it's difficult to think what might wake us up to how dangerous our world's becoming other than a direct attack.

"We are still not having a serious conversation about preparations required for a very destabilising decade. NATO could easily fracture and America pull out of the UN.

"National service must now be a serious option to improve our resilience."

Several other countries have turned to military service to boost their armed forces in response to mounting tensions with Russia.

Germany has launched a new scheme amid manpower shortages in the Bundeswehr, while France is bringing in voluntary national service for mainly 18- and 19-year-olds from this summer.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/conscription-in-uk-is-a-very-real-prospect-unless-keir-starmer-does-this-1-thing/ar-AA1TKtQL

Russia doesn't have the capability to invade the UK.

Missile attacks, possibly. If they decided to go down the nuclear route, that would be over fairly quickly.

I agree, but that's not the main issue.

If Russia attacks a NATO country like Poland or Lithuania, conscription is likely as we don't have that many in the army.

The government is now going to make it easier to call up reservists up to 65 rather than 55 as it was before.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4grjxl4w06o

Forgive me for being slightly sceptical about all these military guys talking up the chances of war. Convincing governments to invest more in defence is literally their job.

Just stop reading the Daily Mail. It'll be a lot less expensive than moving to New Zealand.

More info :

https://news.sky.com/story/france-reveals-new-national-military-service-amid-fears-of-russian-threat-13476148

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-rapidly-developing-plans-to-prepare-for-war-says-armed-forces-minister-13482403

https://news.sky.com/story/everyone-in-uk-must-step-up-to-deter-russian-threat-of-wider-war-armed-forces-chief-to-warn-13483508

This one about who would be conscripted is particularly interesting.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/groups-most-likely-to-be-drafted-in-ww3-conscription-uk-402000/

Spot on.

It will be mostly men called up to do the killing and dying - what are you worried about?

Cant but actually thought this week that i'd leave this one if i were younger. Never thought that before.

What is it exactly about Britain that you think Putin wants?

The paranoia and self importance, Jesus

I get their potential motives. But it's not just the Daily Mail reporting. You'll see I've linked plenty of others.

I think war will probably not happen, but it's risky to automatically dismiss this as sabre-rattling or fundraising exaggeration. Plenty of people before WW1, WW2 & others probably thought similarly for quite a while.

You're missing the point. If Putin attacks a NATO member like Poland or Lithuania, the British Army might well conscript civilians here to fight.

That is far more likely than attacking Britain via land invasion as the main focus.

Several papers have noted that women are 3rd in the list to be called up (5 groups are the primary ones who might be).

They have also quoted polls saying over 70% of Brits support women serving on the front lines. I don't know if this would happen or not, but perhaps likely?

Given what Russia hasn’t achieved in Ukraine in the past three years what makes anyone think they have anything?

leaders have to take threats seriously but that doesn’t mean they carry any weight.

If putin had anything he would have taken Ukraine and he hasn’t. That tells you everything you need to know.

The US is a far bigger threat. Trump will invade Greenland and IMO it will be soon. And at that point nato will cease to exist.

Well, I'm at uni. I'd like to defend Britain, but otoh I don't much want to die yet.

I'd rather feel I've assessed the options over time and then decide rather than having a potential war and conscription come as a shock. There's no harm in assessing the future rather than hoping the war threat will go away.

Good post : otoh Putin has built up his forces & has far more still to draw on. The Ukraine war has also given his soldiers a lot of experience.

@Carla786 If ww3 breaks out it will be a nuclear war and nowhere on earth will be safe, its bend over and kiss your arse goodbye time. The only question you should be asking is if you want to die quickly (in the vaporisation zones) or slowly (from radiation poisoning).
My choice is quickly hence I live within 10 miles of a primary target as I know how bad a death from radiation poisoning is.
If (massive huge if) we were invaded i would have no problem fighting to defend my home from an invading army. But I'm a military brat and former reservist and was raised to believe that if you're not willing to defend you country you are a coward who doesn't deserve citizenship.
The question is are you a coward or a citizen?

Nuclear war is unlikely to happen first. Putin knows we have our own nuclear bombs.

What's much more likely than Britain being invaded first is that Putin will attack a NATO country like Poland or Lithuania & NATO troops will be conscripted potentially to fight there.