To wonder if anyone has or is considering moving to a country that's less likely to be involved if Putin attacks a NATO country. (title edited by MNHQ at request of OP)

[Carla786]

I hope that if WW3 happened, I'd be brave enough to stay and fight. I love Britain & I'd hate to leave it or see it invaded by Putin.

However, at the same time I'm wondering about the recent rush of articles suggesting conflict with Russia is inevitable by around 2030 and that civilians need to prepare to be conscripted to fight if NATO is attacked. I'd always thought Britain being land-invaded was fairly unlikely, but being called up to fight in a NATO war widens the options of what might happen.

Countries that are less likely to be involved include Austria, Switzerland, New Zealand, Republic of Ireland. I don't particularly want to move to any of these. If call-ups are likely to be imminent in about 4 years, I don't know..

The country I've always thought I'd move to if I did move is Poland (where I have family ties)- but of course that's far more likely to be involved in a potential war!

why should a country take you in as a refugee?

OPs gone very quiet.

It's Sunday lunchtime in Russia.

Something I've noticed is that during any discussion about the possibility of a situation that would change our way of life (typically war, a disease, climate change), there is a core of people who seem to believe that it's absurd to think that our way of life CAN change.

I wonder if in the early stages of the Black Death, our Civil War, the French Revolution, WW2, etc etc etc, there were people saying, "When I look out my window everything's fine, so stop scaremongering." Everything staying basically the same isn't a guarantee, and it's not ridiculous to think about what you would do if things change.

I agree with EligibleTern. We've got used to living in a relatively stable and well-off country, where we're led to believe that other, grown-up people are in charge and that we will be protected if we lose our jobs, become disabled, etc (although we're less well protected than we may like to believe). It can be easy to think that nothing really bad can happen. It's like the young people in the Swiss nightclub - some of them stayed in the room and took videos of the fire, rather than using the extremely short window of opportunity to get out. They had been looked after by their parents and teachers all their lives and couldn't fathom that something bad would be allowed to happen to them. They paid with their lives.

Well yes there is lot of head in the sand stuff. It makes people feel secure. A few years ago in the UK we were all legally made to stay in our homes by the government.

Nothing stays the same forever. The world is unstable. More so than at any point since 1945. The world is rearming. It’s redividing in areas of political influence. The Americans are gearing up to fight each other and their neighbours.

I know! Completely laughable that some people cannot imagine that every country will shut down airports, close every port and border and would post armed guards to stop anyone entering! There won't be any way to leave your country apart from walking - all roads would be jammed, no petrol to be had.

How far can you walk carrying everything you need? What will you drink and eat?

The OP seems to think that if it looks like conflict is imminent she can set off for the airport and catch the next flight to NZ - and she'll be the only one doing so!! 😂

No point in scare mongering. What are people going to do, move?

If not then why spread it’s all going to change rhetoric.

Yep if people think everything will change or whatever then move now. There’s no point in waiting for it to happen, it’ll be too late.

But there's a big conceptual difference between "If it's going to happen, there's nothing any of us can do so why worry" and "People have been saying this for decades and things have been fine, I'm just focusing on my family, nothing happened when everyone was so worried during the Cold War" etc like change is pretty much impossible, as though the last few decades of relative stability are for some undefined reason now set in stone as what life is like (at least for us in the west). And acting as though that blinkered view is the basic, common sense truth. It's just annoying, that's all.

You're watching too much news, politely you sound insane. Turn your tv off and go for a walk or something

Russia hasn't even managed to take Ukraine after 4 years trying

Putin thought that a 1960s-style, Soviet invasion of rolling some tanks into town would be enough ... but clearly didn't think beyond that

I don’t see the comparison. The threat of Hitler was clear.
And not even he tried to invade the UK until
once WW2 had started.

I just cannot see a situation where Putin decides he wants to attempt to invade the UK. Especially where he has not been able to take Ukraine in almost 5 years of fighting.

Come on now.

I'm not saying it about this situation specifically, I'm talking more generally about people who don't think any significant change is possible, whether via war, disease, climate change or anything else, as though we are somehow protected now.

I agree.

There is an incredibly stupid man loose in the world who in the fact few weeks swooped in, murdered guards and abducted the president of another country.

He also announced plans to annex a large territory which has never belonged his country and which has no linguistic or historical connection with it (unlike Russia and the Donbas).

He has also had armed troops on the streets brutally suppressing his own citizens
.. protest, and you get shot multiple times in the head like Renee Nicole Good.

He also has a well-equipped army, a large budget to be diverted from things like education and vaccines for babies to the army, and a wildly erratic personality disorder of some kind.

People should be worried because there is a giant fucking baby with his finger on the button that makes the missiles fly.

And people are still fixated on the evil Rooskies.

Tbf the casualties and wounded are over a million so even if we don’t think it’ll impact us directly Putin is making many suffer in an awful war.

Why not move to a part of the UK that historically is Excluded from conscription? Namely, N Ireland.

• When the UK introduced conscription in the First World War (1916) and Second World War (1939–60 period), Northern Ireland was explicitly exempted from the conscription laws, even though it was part of the UK.

Short flight to England / rest of UK. Easy transition with many UK companies having offices in Belfast etc. Same currency / banks / tax system etc

Disingenuous at best 😐

Huh? I was just reacting to the part of the OP asking about moving countries to avoid conscription. I thought, genuinely as it happens(!), that perhaps it wasn’t widely known that N.I has historically had a different situation than the rest of the UK re this point. It’s also a fantastic place to live with great people, super schools and access to some amazing natural sights. Not sure how that’s disingenuous, I feel like you may have misinterpreted my post. 💓

You mean ICBMs and nuclear bombs? I agree the whole world is unsafe due to stuff like that, to some degree.

Otoh some place are clearly bigger targets than others. Any European country, for instance, would be more likely to be dragged into a Putin-NATO conflict, for instance.

Agree re ordinary people doing their best..

I agree.

And obviously there are things one can do besides move. As pp mentioned, purified water tablets etc. After all, civil war is another possibility of what could happen. Or more likely, maybe, an attack on the UK short of full-scale invasion, maybe with cyber or chemical attacks

🤣 I have stuff to do, and I don't like to check in too much in the day as I think it's bad for concentration.

I am very grateful for all the replies.

I've said that this is a plan for well in advance. I know that moving once conflict is obviously imminent will not work.

Where I live is in my control.

I agree anxiety in itself is not good, but that's not the same as assessing the situation and
making practical plans according to one's assessment.

Probably not likely to happen soon - hopefully not. But the whole situation is pretty unpredictable and the top government figures & army people I've quoted from the UK & other European countries DO seem quite worried. This can be exaggerated or mistaken of course, but just because they has been the case in places like Iraq doesn't mean it necessarily is this time.

Well have you researched whether NZ would want you for starters?

I totally agree that where you live is in your control.

But as you say, the whole geopolitical situation is unpredictable. So I’m wondering how you/we can assess the situation when it’s so changeable - and how worthwhile it is to do that.

How can you/we make a practical plan if we have very little idea about Putin’s plans? All we know is he will continue attacking Ukraine until he has colonised it fully. And if that plan is successful, he may do the same to other countries.

I’m wondering why you’re thinking about radically changing your life to avoid a potential Russian attack when there’s little clear evidence that will happen?

I just don’t think war gaming a move to a distant country that may or may not also be invaded by Putin makes sense - have you thought about where you will live in that country, how you will earn money etc?

As an example, I live in London, and neither me, nor my friends or family here have been talking about Putin attacking the U.K./London and any plans to move country to avoid an attack.