To be worried there will be a war in Europe

[Viviennemary]

I don't think there will be. But the media seem to be hell bent on
winding us up about it. I dont understand Trump's attitude at all. He's like not our problem. I thought the USA was meant to be in NATO.

Haven't read the full thread but I've worked with managers like Trump who are on the side of the last person they spoke to with any sort of plausible argument. Hence the back and forth.
Mainly they want what's best for them and an easy life..

@Iwantitidontwantit I think it's a good idea for us all to have some cash to hand

Trump honestly has decent foreign policy

The Putin situation is horrendous. For the millions being forced to fight and those who have to counter it in Ukraine. Just awful.

The overarching picture will be China v US as pp said, and that will be about AI and rare minerals. People in the US will be ok as they can likely counter. EU / UK needs to spend more which they are being kind of forced to do.

It’s the AI race that US and China are working towards.

The idea of a hot war in Western Europe is farcical. Were it to happen, it would probably the last ever war as nukes would end up being used.

Russia is not a meaningful military power in any sense and, if the rest of Europe ended up retooling their factories to make weapons, Russia would be defeated very quickly (even without calling on the U.S. under NATO).

Will Russia test out our cyber defences and undersea cables? Probably.

It suits various people, especially the military, to pretend Russia is a meaningful threat, but they aren’t.

I think wide spread civil unrest resembling a civil war is much more likely in Western European countries than a war with Russia. I’d put war at 1/10 and civil war at 4/10.

Might be of interest to some and for info: Very recent Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) article on " Are We at War with Russia?...."

"Russia’s hybrid campaign against Europe since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine shows that war in the 2020s is not defined by the moment tanks cross borders. Conflict today is a continuum, one in which hostile states use non-kinetic, unattributable means to degrade the ability of an adversary to function long before conventional forces engage. The West still tends to treat these actions as ‘pre-war’, or something separate from conflict itself. They are not. They are part of an escalatory strategy aimed at undermining and degrading our deterrence logic. This makes it difficult to ascertain where Europe is on the ‘spectrum of conflict’ with Russia."

www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/are-we-war-russia-how-wardens-rings-map-russias-hybrid-strategy

But then you'd find that the agitators pushing for civil unrest would include many Russian puppets.

Historically, were "due".
Europe only? Doubt it
Trumps messing up everything, EVERYWHERE.

The Gaza peace plan?

Russia can’t go to war with Ukraine. With truly no offense to Ukraine, who have been incredible - if Russia can’t win in Ukraine, it can’t win against Europe, or even a US-less NATO. A lot of indicators that suggest Russia’s economy is in big trouble, too.

That said, it’s no time to be complacent. Ukraine needs full EU support and sadly defence spending has to increased everywhere.

Sorry but barely any of this is correct.

This.

The hysteria on this thread!

What bit about this post isn’t correct?

@Lemonfrost ,

That isn’t really a meaningful refutation.

Care to explain further?

Can you really see a land war in NATO countries?

Do you not think that, if that ever happened, it would fairly certainly lead to nuclear war?

Could Russia meaningfully project force a long way from home?

Possibly they’re behind it, it wouldn’t be the first time a bad actor has used migration to try and destabilise states.

How are we supposed to defend Ukraine when our politicians don't seem to be able to defend our own borders? And there doesn't seem to be much urgency in increasing defence spending if the last budget is anything to go by - funding increasing welfare seems to be more important.

Russia must think they have already won the war considering how disorganised and chaotic Europe and the UK look right now.

Exactly this. We have much more pressing issues than Russia to ending our way of life, our own Government do it every day inch by inch.

How are they doing this exactly?
I don't know who else you have in mind as an alternative right now but MAGA/Russia puppets won't improve our way of life in the UK, that's for sure.

How can they go doing it every day inch by inch?

They’ve in power 17 months.

Allowing mass and undocumented immigration, two tier policing, custodial sentences for tweets, non custodial sentences for violence when perpetrators have protected characteristics, continued grooming gang cover up, tax burden on families to move towards state allocation of resources, removal of tax free non state education options, blasphemy laws through the back door, tighter grip on housing allocation, enforcing IDs, not allowing local elections …..things like that. Small monthly changes that over time will drastically change how you live your life.

This. Russia’s war is a shadow one, and it’s using strategy first employed by the Soviet Union, updated for the present day.

As an aside, If anyone wants insight into Russian tactics I would recommend the Mitrokhin Archive.

I genuinely don’t think Russia wants all of Ukraine, or the old Republics. I think it suits Russia to stoke those fears though, and sow confusion, as it puts them in a better position to ‘settle’ for keeping NATO off the border, and retaining the regions they already have control of, the territory they wanted in the first place.

The Donbas is the industrial heartland, and very important for the economy. It’s also the traditionally ‘pro Russian’ area, as in it’s Orthodox and was/is largely Russian speaking. Western Ukraine, parts of which used to belong to Poland until ww2, isn’t as appealing.

Honestly I agree. Trump's the complete opposite of that. He's been going full force on deportations and being tough on crime.

I know someone will be along in a minute to say ‘ no you’re wrong, Trump is the one to worry about’ it’s pretty absurd really.

@Newbutoldfather

Could Russia meaningfully project force a long way from home?

Depends of what you define as meaningful..

Their submarine fleet is pretty much untested and despite Ukraine's best efforts a high percentage of the Russian long range air force remains operational...

I'd say they still have the capability to make eyes water a lonf way from the Motherland by non nuclear means, at least for a few hours, if Putin was so minded.

As soon as I can get back on my laptop rather than my phone I would be more than happy to do so.