To be worried there will be a war in Europe

[Viviennemary]

I don't think there will be. But the media seem to be hell bent on
winding us up about it. I dont understand Trump's attitude at all. He's like not our problem. I thought the USA was meant to be in NATO.

When will the European leaders realize they have to step up?! They haven’t even confiscated Russian’s frozen assets and have been buying oil from them until recently, (I believe Hungary, Serbia and Turkey still are). It seems they still imagine Trump can be persuaded to do the right thing?!
it isn’t completely obvious that Trump is an ignorant, stupid , self interested moron who actually isn’t even capable of grasping the basics. He’s just sent his son in law and realtor friend to negotiate a peace deal with Russia ?!!
Europe needs to wake up.

I'm not sure you understand what NATO is...

It's not as if they can suddenly "step up" tomorrow. It would take a decade or two for European countries to develop adequate military capabilities that are not reliant on (and susceptible to the whims of) the US.

Currently, they're likely just trying to buy time.

Unless you mean step up by starting the necessary investment process, which I would agree needs to happen now (or needed to happen a decade ago...).

I think you’re crediting Trump with far too much intelligence, he has the attention span of a goldfish and is unable to think strategically. His only drive is to do what benefits himself in that moment.

As an American I quite agree with you with just one caveat, Trump is not enriching America, just himself.

They could seize the frozen Russian assets tomorrow, that’s billions they could pour into Ukraine. Instead they have been pontificating about it for years.

So everyone should sit back and let trump and putin play with their lives?
This is unlikely to be a land war, it’ll be cyber.

I’m afraid we are starting to become the enemy of Trump as he sees us as a majority Muslim country now. I read that he is trying to make allies of Hungary, Poland, Italy and Austria. I’m going to assume because they’ve kept the pesky immigrants out. I don’t think he is particularly allying himself with Russia though. That wouldn’t make any sense.

@Buffs I hate being put in a position where it looks like I'm defending the trumpton but in terms of thinking strategically I have seen a clip of him asking Germany etc why they are buying Russian oil years and years ago in his first term and to invest more in nato.

I don't think for one moment he's pal with Putin either nor would abandon us take on Putin.

If it comes it's most likely going to be a cyber attack. Putin doesn't have the men or funds for physical war.

Putin absolutely hates the UK with a passion, that much is clear.

For the last 6 months I've started a store canned goods, water, battery power sources and most importantly cash. It won't last long at all, but would mean that if we did suffer a cyber attack we have about a weeks amount of stuff.

And if that makes me sound insane, so be it.

Which is why Europe should have weaned themselves off the Yanks. The moment many of us dreaded has come. If Europe doesn't pull up it's big boy pants & get seriously behind Ukraine, there will definitely be a war in Europe & the good old USA won't lift a finger unless there's $$$ in it for them.

Who? Putin? You've got to be kidding!

It's not really that simple.

The legality would be (at best) questionable and, if the EU does start allowing and conducting exporpriations, could well lead to other non-EU persons pulling their investments from the EU, devalue the Euro, and so could easily result in a net loss.

It would also, seemingly, aggravate the US - who are lobbying hard against the EU using those assets (presumably in part because the US wants all or some of them). If the EU did proceed, it could likely expect some form of retaliation (fiscal) from the US, as well as Russia.

The EU and the UK are between a rock and a hard place. They're there, in part, because of decades of complacency and, if it's possible for them to dig their way out, that'll take years/decades too. All they can really do in the interim is stall and hope...and "hope" really is the word, particularly when (US-backed) Russia UK are doing so well in the polls.

I was listening to the news on Radio 4 this afternoon, around 3 or 4pm, and being interviewed was someone representing the UK Government, I think he was military and he was talking very seriously about the number of covert attacks/sabotage being made on the UK by the Russians and pointing out that we were unprepared for an attack. He cited Ukraine a few years ago which seemed European and all hunky dory with infrastructure that worked, IT, energy supplies sorted, hospitals open and working and look at it now.
He may have been manipulating for more funds for his military budgets, he might have been either the Secretary of State for Armed Forces or the Minister but I was beyond chilled and scared by what he was saying, he repeated how serious the situation is and emphasised how lacking in allies we are now and how vulnerable.
Who knows but it didn't make me feel like we could be complacent. This is the worst scenario I've envisaged in my lifetime.

It's not so much that we,or Western Europe will be invaded by the Russians. It's the fact that he will take down the old possessions of the Soviet Union/Russian Empire (all the same thing in the end), some of which are currently in the EU. All the rest of us will be vassals of Putin &/or his successors in a way that we never had to worry about before we suicidally brexited. By the end of my life, everything will have gone to ratshit because the 'electorate' are a load of dumbfucks who are so desperately complacent, it's like they don't understand anything except shopping & Strictly.

There's only about a 1% difference between the proportion of Muslims in Italy vs the UK.

I don't think its about "allying" with Russia, so much as dividing the world up into "spheres of influence" - the US, Russia and China each having their respective geographical areas of control. So long as the US maintains military supremacy over Russia, I don't think Trump really cares what they do, and has no interest in continuing to bankroll the rest of Europe as a strategic ally against Russia (when resources could be spent on better bringing the rest of the Americas, and Greendland, under the US's heel).

I thought the motto of NATO is an attack on one is an attack on all. Which is why Putin is demanding Ukraine doesnt ever join Nato.

And why do you think the old gangster would demand that eh? Puzzles me....

Not technically it motto but yes, that's the basic premise - it is (was?) a military and political alliance between its member states, and can only act with the unanimous consent of its members.

That unanimity often requires the majority of members exerting a lot of diplomatic pressure on the others.

Even if every other member wanted to take a more aggressive approach against Russia, that isn't going to happen if the US (Trump) wont agree. Given that the US is by far the most powerful and important member, there's not really much pressuring that can be done.

So when the PP says:

"Trump is not the issue
....
USA does not want to get involved in other people's wars - that includes Europe
....
The issue is Nato which is weak
Russia committed an act of sabotage in Poland that is an attack on a Nato county
Noto response was zero"

that doesnt make a lot of sense. NATO's response is largely informed by what the US wants to do.

Incidentally, the apparent divergence between US and European interests is something we could well see mirrored in the UK.

The reason Russia promoted Brexit, and has seems to have developed ties with Reform UK (or at least, various of its members) is because straining relations between the UK and the EU further weakens NATO.

Quite where that would leave the UK in terms of national defence, who knows. I assume it would become even further dependent on the US, which might suit the US for strategic purposes, or might come at a price (likely in terms of trade).

Certainly a lot of "divide" going on, whether and to what extent the "conquer" happens, who knows.

I'm not meaning to re-litgate Brexit, by the way. European nations don't have to be in the EU to be aligned on defence but, if the goal is to ultimately drive a wedge between one nation and the rest of Europe in the area of national security, separating them fiscally and regulatory is likely the necessary first step (and the rest doesnt have to follow).

I'm not a Conservative voter but a Tory win has never made me fearful for the UK's longterm national security. On that front, the prospect of Reform win scares the crap out of me.

If we do go to war, we’re fuked because we’ve no weapons, ships or planes, dues to our pathetic governments past and present getting rid of everything 😡

This is one of the areas where I think the current government are doing a pretty good job. They've meaningfully increased defence spending and, where there have been early decommissions/disposals, they've been on assets that are outdated and uneconomic to service and maintain - its necessary modernisation.

I'd probably rather they increased spending further and quicker, but increases in spending aren't exactly easy to achieve at the moment.

Russia is in Europe. Ukraine is in Europe.
Russia invaded Ukraine.
Russia and Ukraine are at war.
There is a war in Europe.

If you're asking about escalation, I'm worried, too. Mainly because so many of us are not ready for it, and I feel it is only a matter of time before it does escalate - and not much time, for that matter.

Heard this earlier -
news.sky.com/story/uk-rapidly-developing-plans-to-prepare-for-war-says-armed-forces-minister-13482403

I think you are massively underestimating Trump here. Which is a common mistake. Most of the mainstream media seem to make no effort to actually look at the big picture of US policy, instead preferring to simply declare it stupid and wrongheaded.

It's differernt than what other people have done and out of the box, and maybe won't work, but it's wrong to say there is no strategic direction.