To ask how much you think income tax will rise by?

[Wonderofwimbledon]

We’re absolutely financially at our limit… I’m so incredibly stressed. An income tax rise will break us and we won’t be able to afford it. We won’t have money to eat.

What do you think it’ll be? I just want to curl up and cry- we can’t take anymore increases our bills , mortgage everything has increased we have no spare money at all

That thread got just 2 pages, her situation is unique to her, single parent for starters, spending time with her son, is very important to her.

Are you for real???? so it was not important to me to spend my time with DC, only to pay taxes to subsidies her??? so millions suckers working full time don't value time with their children??? and they are not exhausted, only her???

She wouldn't cost fortune if she worked full time, she wouldn't be able to claim UC, "only" 30hours childcare (which is denied to those on 100k who pay for her) and she would contribute more taxes and we wouldn't need that many foreign workers.

Our stupid welfare system encourages this. Can you imagine if all people did what she's doing? no?

Yes i'm for real.

I was PT when my DD was young, though i didn't qualify for Benefits, my DD benefited enormously.

Its important to spend time with children, we'd not have all the issues with MH in young people if there was more parental time with children.

Also, the point you miss, is her 12hr shifts rule out childcare & they could be at night, evening, weekends, home alone???

Her working FT, means more childcare assistants too, many of which we have to get from overseas.....

It would be different if she had a partner, able to help but she hasn't.

Oh and whilst they may have paid tax, she delivered their kids...... possibly worth a little more?

So if the money wasn't spent on services, infrastructure or other production costs - where did it go?

I’ve been asking that question ad nauseum for months. It’s been ignored every time.

Me too @BIossomtoes

The other thing that annoys me is we all want to take £76 PIP a week off someone with MH issues.... or make a midwife work 3 x 12.5 shifts a week, to save 5billion but don't moan about £29billion wasted on HS2 before it was cancelled or the 4% of GDP Brexit cost us, not too mention the x ch migration, costing us billions, all due to Brexit.

Or the billions spent on HB that goes to private LLs.

Oh no! lets screw over someone who has SFA.

I was in favour of HS2, but thought the build should have started in the North and worked south. A close friend worked on it at a senior level, and the big plan was to take a lot of heavy freight off the roads, a benefit which wasn't spelled out clearly enough, and the bat tunnel plus the gashes ripped through the Chilterns made it vastly unpopular in those areas. It was also apparently a rats' nest of infighting, before we get to the cost over-runs.

Cross channel migrants need tents and barrack accommodation, and rapid deportation. The pull factors have to be destroyed, which will also affect the benefits landscape.

In a country as small as the UK, HS2 is utter madness, just build a normal hi speed line.
But before doing any of that, figure out how to build it on time and on a budget other countries build line at.

Barracks style yes, tents no, we don't have the climate for that but again, before any of this, you have to be prepared to front the costs to guard these camps because people will abscond.

I suspect those shouting loudest for these don't want them anywhere near their back garden.

That wasn't the question.

I originally said: Whether you agree with private school VAT increase or not, they have done what they said they would and invested that money in state schools.

Another poster replied:

Have they? Please corroborate, because I assert this is incorrect.

I corroborated it by showing that the education budget has increased by more that the predicted VAT take from private school fees.

If someone had asked "What is the actual ££ benefit to the country on that 20% tax introduction?"

I would have replied with this:

It is not possible to know for sure yet because VAT on fees only came into effect in January 2025. This means that the first VAT return from schools would not be due until May 2025, falling into the 2025-26 accounting period.

While monthly data is released by HMRC about how much VAT is collected, it is not broken down by sector until the annual statistics are released. This is usually around November following the end of the accounting period. 2023-24 was released in November 24, 2022-23 was released in November 2023 etc.

This means that we will not know how much the 2024-25 income from VAT on private school fees is until November 2026 at the earliest.

What we do know at this point is that:

• The plans that Labour published that VAT on private school fees was estimated to raise £460 million in 2024/25 and £1.51 billion in 2025/26 (this was published in the previous post).

• It is likely to take a while to settle down with the full effect of VAT on fees not being seen for a while due to some schools issuing invoices for the spring and summer terms early to enable VAT to be avoided on 2024-25

• According to the monthly VAT data, VAT take has increased by £4 billion between April and September 2025 compared to the same period last year - an increase of 4.8%.

• According to the 2023-24 annual data, the average VAT received from the education sector between 2017-18 and 2023-24 (excluding 2020-21) is £426 million a year, so if Labour's plans come to fruition, if I am reading the data correctly, it will increase VAT from the education sector by 354%

(I think the annual and monthly figures are adjusted for inflation, but not 100% certain)

Although we cannot know what the actual VAT income from school fees is until next year (or earlier if the government put out a statement), the government are, none the less, https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/school-funding-statistics/2024-25 currently providing funding to schools at far beyond the amount they expect to get from VAT on fees

Only time will tell over the next 3 or 4 years, by looking at the VAT income from Education and ongoing school funding if they will continue to invest in state schools at the same level that VAT from fees brings in. All we can say for certain at the moment, is that they appear to have increased funding to schools in anticipation of getting the planned VAT receipts for 2024-25 and 2025-26.

Your post says money from the tax on Education has been put into the State system ( what money as your posts suggests it’s money from the new tax )

You’ve posted info on the education budget
but not proved that this money has come from the new Education tax
The budget info is irrelevant and your latest posts also do not provide proof
because
Labour keep saying they don’t know yet 🤣

Yet you do 🤨

All we can say for certain at the moment, is that they appear to have increased funding to schools in anticipation of getting the planned VAT receipts for 2024-25 and 2025-26.

For certain they appear? What new left wing jibber jabber is this?!?
What we can say for certain is;
-Rayner and others voted in 2019 to abolish private schools and appoint a social justice committee to move the kids to state schools despite the £4 billion cost to to the state in education costs alone.—They were forced in court reveal they’d lied repeatedly to underestimate the number of forecasted impacted children by the education taxes and would be forced out of their schools.

This had absolutely nothing to do with raising money for ‘our’ children in state schools, it was just an act of spite against the children of people Labour ideologically don’t see as people. The justification came later. It’s certain they appear to be utter b@stards.

If you earn more than 45k, you are not classed as a working person anymore and you may also find that your children aren’t classed as ‘our’ children by the Government.

You’re demanding a type of proof the UK tax system has never produced.

VAT isn’t ringfenced, it never has been, and there’s no mechanism that would let anyone track private school fee VAT to a precise state school budget line. It’s not evidence of a lie, it’s not evasive, it’s not political spin. It’s just how the Treasury works.

The only evidence that actually matters and can exist is:

1. How much VAT on fees is expected to raise (Basis)
2. How much state school funding has actually gone up. (Delivery)
3. How much VAT is actually raised (Success)
4. Have pupil outcomes improved (Outcomes)

We know the answers to 1) and 2) School funding has already increased by more than the projected VAT receipts.

That's it. That's the delivery - and it’s the only measurable test available.

Success and Outcomes will be measured through the VAT collection and pupil outcome data over the next few years.

If you want a comparison, look at the Tory sugar tax. The revenue wasn’t ringfenced then either, and nobody demanded a pound-for-pound trail from cans of Coke to children’s dental budgets.

1. The sugar tax was expected to raise money
2. The funding for related programmes rose in anticipation
3. The tax raised what was expected
4. Child tooth decay fell.

The policy worked exactly as intended without needing any magical money-tracking.

If you’re asking for a level of evidence the UK has literally never produced for any VAT category under any government, then you’re not looking for facts. You’re just trying to point-score.

I'm not interested in class wars. Yes, I am a higher rate tax payer, but I have enough common sense not to get wound up by badly thought out political soundbites.

You can keep going on all you like about political ideology - that happens on both sides, and is a waste of time distraction from the things that matter.

All I care about is whether outcomes and quality of life is improving and I will base my opinion about that on data and hard evidence, not whether I prefer the colour red or blue.

Good public services
A growing economy
Good infrastructure
Excellent education
Decent housing
Opportunity regardless of class, sex, ethnicity, age or sexuality
Decreasing child poverty and wealth gap
Low crime
A social safety net that isn't full of holes.

Over the last 14 years, the Tories have failed in every single one of those measures.

Its not about political ideology for me. The things above are the only things that matter and I will vote for whichever political party can evidence success in delivering them - even if I don't necessarily share their ideology.

If and when the country is working well and all parties can evidence progress and delivery, then that will be the time to make decisions based on ideology.

Until then - its hard, data backed evidence or nothing!

ou’re asking for a level of evidence the UK has literally never produced for any VAT category under any government

Labour taxed children’s education and vocational training for the first time ever to fund 6000 new state school teachers and a half breakfast muffin for every state school child. On the face of it, taxing education seems an incredibly backwards thing to do so asking for evidence really doesn’t seem too much of an ask.

Well we’re in agreement (for once) that we’re both not interested in class wars, but unfortunately we have a Government that clearly is. As far as it being common sense to not get wound up by it, if you had children you’d understand that common sense goes out the window if someone is trying (and succeeding) in hurting them.

Oh but you re not so concerned about the 93% of children that in many cases get a poor education and in almost all cases don't get anything like the education and sporting/music opportunities that children in the private sector get.

The Tories hurt them but that was all ok.

Over the course of the Parliament, this will raise over 5bn for state education.

The policy was in the manifesto, its a tax on those who can most afford it.

Schools could have mitigated the fees by larger class sizes, less after school clubs etc but still offer an education far better than in the state sector, but they didn't they chose to pass on almost all the increase, why? because they know that parents can afford it.

Well done on derailing the discussion onto just school fees VAT though!

What people are feeling isn’t imaginary at all. Moving on from the last two govs to this one there are people impacted by Labour now.

As a party they have created a self inflicted strain, one so obvious they could oust their leader and Chancellor.

The problem for them is the opposite, their soundbites and lines haven’t worked. People feel gaslit by them.

Nonsensical class war nonsense as usual. It’s tax on children’s education…nothing really else to discuss.

Derail the thread? PP brought it up and the thread is about Labour tax rises, not the Tories. For the hundredth time, the Tories are not in Government.

Yes they are but the damage caused over the Cons period in govt is why this tax had to be introduced.
The past affects the present and future, is this not very obvious?

The Schools and hospitals building program halted during their tenure, how do we pay to put this right?

Or doesn't it matter, your kids are in Millfield, who gives a hoot about the ones in the state sector.

As for your nonsense "a tax on children's education" its a tax on their wealthy parents.
Plus as i pointed out, the schools, if they bothered could mitigate the increase in fees but in the vast majority of cases have not.

Yes its a thread about tax rises, correct, well done, but this tax has been in for sometime, yet you seem fixated on just this one.....

At no point have I argued the right or wrongs of the policy.

Labour said they would put VAT on school fees to raise revenue and use that revenue to support an increase in state school funding

I said they had done that, another poster said they didn't believe they had, I provided the evidence.

That's it.

Absolutely nothing to do with whether the ideology is right or wrong or whether it has been a success.

There are only three things a government can be judged on:

1. Does what the government is doing / planning align with your values and ideology?
2. Have they done what they say they are going to do in terms of mechanism and delivery?
3. Is it successful?

15 months into a new government, only 1 and 2 can be answered. 3 takes time to evidence either way - you can only go by early indication and past performance.

In terms of VAT on school fees, it does not feature within my values or ideology beyond the increase in school funding, so I am not going to get into a debate about whether it is right or wrong.

I am concerned with whether they have done what they said they would and they have.

Whether it is a success will be determined over the next five years. It will be a success if:

• The amount predicted is raised
• State school funding increases by the amount predicted over the term of the parliament
• State school outcomes improve
• Analysis of the number of children in private schools and the reason for change

The first three are easy to measure with simple data. The fourth is more nuanced and will need to be qualitatively researched.

It’s a tax on children’s education, there’s no room for you to squeeze any ambiguity into this I’m afraid. It’s very clear.

Like I say, this is standard stuff. Here’s a tax or a penalty of some kind, if you don’t like it well then you’re selfish, don’t care about poor people and/or racist. It’s nothing new and it’s just tired and boring especially when its clear who was already paying for 60% of everything.

Obviously I recognise your world view, we’ve all gone to school with or worked with people who think like this. But pulling other people down simply won’t help you feel any better or improve anything. When you’re going after peoples children because of some endless past grievance against the Tories then it’s overstepped the line, especially when it’s my children.

Independent schools have nothing to do with the funding of state schools. This is just a link that’s been made up for usual identity politics/envy nonsense, that’s why you can’t demonstrate it benefits state schools. You might as well say the success criteria is whether or not the defence budget increases.

The success criteria is whether raising less than 1 billion is worth the negative affects.

I agree that they soundbites haven't worked. Their PR and marketing people are absolutely terrible! The issue is when agitators with alterior motives use those feelings of disappointment and people's natural reactions to feeling the strain of the cost of living to push an alternative agenda.

You can't just move on from the previous three governments because the issues the country is facing do not occur and cannot be fixed overnight. It is the repetition of a pattern seen over the last 40 years:

1979 - Tories get elected, blame the mess the economy was in on Labour (with some legitimacy). They proceed to wreak 18 years of destruction / selling off of public services, cause several recessions, hike interest rates to 15% and increase tax on the lowest earners while reducing it for higher earners.

1997 - Labour get in, reduce tax for everyone, improve failing public services, increase growth and avoid recession until the financial crisis which they didn't cause (but were recognised internationally for managing well) results in the Tories convincing everyone that Labour was somehow to blame for a global economic crisis and have wrecked the economy.

2010 - Tories get in, defund and run services into the ground, raise taxes for everyone, but especially lower earners, growth stagnates, they self-inflict economic damage through Brexit and the Truss budget, increase immigration and 14 years later, its still somehow Labour's fault that the country is in the pan and the Tories are the only ones who can possibly fix it.

2024 - Labour get in, inherit a stagnated, barely functioning economy, decimated public services, and an world teetering on the edge of a nightmare. They are trying to fix it but admittedly have made some fairly major misteps along the way.

People are feeling worse off, but that is the continuation of a trend not a new occurrence.

It is incredibly difficult to bring a runaway train to a halt - but it wasn't Labour that released the brakes and things are measurably improving, even if people aren't feeling it yet in their day to day lives.

The train may not feel like its slowing down yet, but it certainly isn't going any faster.

Do I agree with all of their methods? No - and I've made that clear - but attempting to throw them off the train because they haven't slowed it down yet, when the alternative is putting the people that caused the issues in the first place back in charge is short term reactionism that will only be more damaging in the long term.

This is a very pro Labour take. I get your strong feelings about Labour but this is too biased.

Tbf the person doing their best to derail rn is Starmer. Briefing against Streeting, and panicking over his leadership which may well be a self inflicted outcome.

The success criteria is whether raising less than 1 billion is worth the negative affects.

Exactly! That's the point!

Beyond personal ideology, it doesn't matter one jot whether the link is evidenced or ideological.

It has been made real through the enactment of the policy and the only thing that matters now is whether it is successful or not.

It won't be known for at least three, more likely five, whether:

• It has successfully raised the revenue predicted.
• State school outcomes improve from increased funding.
• The net effect on the number of children in private schools

You can argue whether you agree with it ideologically as much as you like - fill your boots.

What you can't do is say that Labour haven't done what they said they were going to do because they have - the policy is in place and state school funding has been increased.

No-one, supporters or detractors, can say whether the policy has been successful or not yet, and won't be able to for years.

Its predicted to raise £1.5 billion a year, £6.5 billion over the parliament btw, not less than £1 billion (£450 million in the first year is part year affect)

In your opinion......

I'm sorry but its no more a tax on children than any other tax, which it wasn't levied, could be used for other things, inc education.

Parents can use the state system, same as almost everyone else.

Its not dragging anyone down what so ever, children can and do thrive in the state sector but its a great pity, the state system has been so unfunded.

There’s no link to state school funding though, why can’t an increase in defence or health budget be a success criteria?

I can absolutely say Labour haven’t delivered the 6000 new teachers that this was supposed to.

I also think the 650k children affected come into this as one of the negatives, I know they’re terrible little people and only 7% but they do come under a duty of care from the Government.

Anyway, I disagree that we can’t say this has or hasn’t been successful. I think we can say the policy has been a massive success from Labours point of view though as it’s raised revenue, closed some schools and given the children of people they don’t like a bit of a kick in.