To be starting to worry that Reform will win next GE?

[TortoiseMantle]

The polls have shown a consistent lead. Is there any realistic chance of Reform actually winning the next election?

I vote Labour, but it’s hard to see how they’ve managed to throw away such a lead in just a year, and it’s hard to see how their polling improves. The Tories maybe have more opportunity for improving, but we’re going to see a Reform government, aren’t we? Nigel Farage is going to be our next PM.

Oh so it must not be true then , I have. I also think it very much depends on where you live who you work / mix with. If you only go in certain circles etc you will only see certain things

I stopped by to say exactly this. God help us all if Farage and co get in. They represent the worst of this country and how anyone could trust Farage after the self-inflicted disaster that has been Brexit is beyond me.

Labour have been in power for 13 months, it was never going to be possible for them to fix the mess in that time. I hope that the polls are just reflecting a general sense of frustration (and unrealistic expectations/ impatience) rather than genuine voting intentions.

Labour have done one thing badly, and that communicate with the public. If they can crack that and learn to play Farage at his own game (social media etc) and start reminding people daily that he caused Brexit in the first place, then hopefully they will stand a chance.

Remember 2010 when there was serious talk of the Lib Dems taking it, @TortoiseMantle ?

I’m petrified!!! Our MP is the highly unpopular Kemi Badenoch, she only just clung on to her seat and Nigel Farage keeps campaigning in this area! I think he has his eye on her seat 🙈!! If he wins I will move!! Sadly, there are a lot of people in the area who align with Reform and I keep driving past bloody Union / England flags too 🤯!!! What a miserable time to be alive!! Reform are like a grey cloud that keeps threatening to pour down!! 🤦‍♀️😩

How long do we give them? People were giving this excuse as them only being in after 1 month, then after 3 months, 4 months, 6 months and now it’s a year. Are we going to go on forever saying “labour have only been in x amount of time” right up until the next general election? And even then, people will say “but…but… they’ve only been in 5 years”.

They’ve had long enough to do plenty in one year but have failed to do so. The only thing they’ve done is anger an awful lot of the population

How are you so certain of who you’ll vote for in several years time? Surely you make a decision based on some kind of critical analysis of the previous X amount of years and the proposed policies?

The numbers very much are there. In the polls and in the local elections.

Some of Reforms policies are much more left than Labour, things like not charging interest on student loans and scrapping the two child benefit cap. They also want tax large businesses an online delivery tax.

they also plan on scrapping hs2.

As a small business owner they are appealing in some ways - I’d save a heck of a lot of money.

I also get frustrated with labour’s pro big business and public sector policies which limit small businesses and the middle class private sector workers.

But what I find most bizarre is that Labour don’t really benefit the working class, disabled, elderly etc - people who they should really represent.

Labour’s ‘target market’ so to speak appears too small for them to win. They’ve upset too many people.

i couldnt bring myself to vote reform I don’t think - but if you do read their policies they seem quite sensible.

Yeah, I mean Labour have done such a great job.
None of them have ever even run a business or had a job outside the public sector.
They haven't got a clue.

Labour are an established party with a large number of experienced MPs, whatever you think of them. If they are not happy with Starmer, there is a process to remove him and pick someone else.

There is no such process in Reform. It's Farage and no one else.

You vote Labour despite them creating a dodgy dossier to kill 500,000? Shame on you. Have you no morals?

This is a fair point and I agree alienation isn’t good.
i guess it’s because there’s a lot of inherent rascism embedded in Trump and Reform’s policies and it’s this, as a red line, that people have an issue with and can’t separate out other parts of their policies.

We’d never had councils go from 0 Reform councillors to controlling the council.

We do now.

This is what I find weird as well.
Why are Labour not representing the working class? I thought that was what they did?
I mean, Reform certainly won't but I can also see why people think they might.

I wouldn't be surprised... look what has happened in America. Not listening to the concerns of the public is a dangerous game to play. Starmer is out of touch and the rest just seem incompetent.

Well you’ll be contributing to a full on disaster then won’t you ? Reform are racist, sexist and ableist and have no idea how to run a country. So if you want race riots, womens’ rights rowed back and every single advancement of the rights of disabled people, including the disability benefits on which they rely decimated, carry on regardless.

They’ve had long enough to do plenty in one year but have failed to do so. The only thing they’ve done is anger an awful lot of the population

@Mumofnarnia you expected any government to grow the economy in 1 yr after nearly 2 decades of low growth?

This isn’t true. Labour voters are switching to Reform. Labour is haemorrhaging safe Labour council seats which have never been anything other than Labour to Reform.

But what I find most bizarre is that Labour don’t really benefit the working class, disabled, elderly etc - people who they should really represent.

Labour’s ‘target market’ so to speak appears too small for them to win. They’ve upset too many people.

Because they are acknowledging the reality that the shrinking tax paying base is a problem.

Labour have a very narrow view of what the working class actually is. Anyone who owns their own home, has savings, or is sick, disabled and not working for various reasons is deemed as not worthy of support. Meanwhile the middle are squeezed and the rich continue to get richer, and those who have had the foresight to be self sufficient or have their own business are fleeced. What’s there to vote for ?

You like their policies - I can see this is challenging for you and carries null woke points, yet you have saved the day by stating that don't want to vote for them.

I was talking about Starmer!

i couldnt bring myself to vote reform I don’t think - but if you do read their policies they seem quite sensible.

Some of their policies sound great but they are completely unaffordable

Labour have been established for decades… doesn’t mean that everyone we get as a labour PM has any experience in running a country! None of those in government today have had first hand experience, it’s a ridiculous comment to make that just because a party has been established x amount of times that they are going to be great at running the country. All that the current labour government have proven is that the current PM lacks experience!

Nigel Farage is an ex Tory and probably been in politics way longer than a lot of those currently in the labour government. A lot of their members have moved from the tories so quite a lot WILL have experience.

Thats not to say I’ll be voting reform but to say they have no experience when some of them were part of long established parties before turning to reform is just ridiculous! They have as much experience as everyone else

I agree with all of that, however the problem is social media and people's refusal to listen to facts which are dismissed as fake news.

I talk to people a lot about climate change and so many people simply will not believe actual empirical evidence collected by professionals whose job it is to gather data about warming oceans and changes in plankton distribution. Fake! All fake! It's just summer.