To be starting to worry that Reform will win next GE?

[TortoiseMantle]

The polls have shown a consistent lead. Is there any realistic chance of Reform actually winning the next election?

I vote Labour, but it’s hard to see how they’ve managed to throw away such a lead in just a year, and it’s hard to see how their polling improves. The Tories maybe have more opportunity for improving, but we’re going to see a Reform government, aren’t we? Nigel Farage is going to be our next PM.

Then why didn’t they say that in their manifesto ? Instead of making promises they knew they couldn’t keep.

No but I’d expect them not to say one thing before the GE and then completely lie about what they said after the GE!

Anyone who owns their own home, has savings, or is sick, disabled and not working for various reasons is deemed as not worthy of support.

Why do people write this nonsense? My parents own their home & another one abroad. They get winter fuel, AA due to disability, surely this is classed as support?

Oh I absolutely agree that all parties should be honest including labour but the electorate don't want to hear the truth hence why so many are pro Reform.

So what do you want ? The Tories back ? Reform ? Lib Dem’s ?

I want much more honesty and transparency but I think I am a minority.

They will win, I think Labour secured that for them today with the migrants rights to stay in hotels are more of a priority than the rights of the local residents safety! Labour will never get back in now.

It's ignorant posts like this that make me keener to vote Reform.

How on earth are they any of these things?

Keir Starmer didn't even know what a woman was until last week and the Greens want to carpet farmland with solar panels and think a woman can have a penis. In fact the leader of the Green's Women's Group was a man last time I looked.

Definitely not. I’m not completely anti reform, I agree with some of their policies. I’m not sure where I’m standing at the moment. I just don’t think labour should stay.

Is it better to have migrants on the streets? genuine question

But councils are more fickle, you often get very low turnout. UKIP got 4.5 million votes one year and only 1 MP, they’d need a majority in more than 50% of constituencies, it seems unlikely. Certainly the conservatives are looking pretty unpopular still, but it would take a huge change in voting habits.

That tax on large businesses would bring a lot in - if,
of course, they’d actually do it. But it’s the only bloody party to go after big business and banks in this way. Which is flipping annoying.

It might just be that Corbyn’s party does something weirdly similar with big businesses too.

Labour and Tories are too similar!

Yep. that’s about the size of things.

He could easily win a seat if a by-election comes up.

Theres been a lot of speculation regionally about him stepping back into Westminster politics.

It’s much more likely that he’ll become an MP again that Reform find 300 brand new candidates to swing enough votes in the next election to jump from just 4 MPs.

I’m hoping there are too many more moderate Tories who split the right vote. My family are all Tory voters (I’m not) but I can’t think they’d ever vote reform. They’re all too financially literate. I hope there’s enough of people like that.

Whilst I completely agree with you and completely see why it would feel like a hopeless task - educating others. I feel like it’s ok to disagree… just ask them questions. Why do they feel like it’s fake news? Agree with some of the arguments and present some more. You cannot persuade everyone but some people will listen. That’s enough.

Reform have no workable policies to actually manage the situation, it’s all hot air.

I can’t work out if this is sarcastic or not 😂

But I don’t think I would. People trusted Farage with Brexit to limit illegal immigration- yet here we are. So can he really do it this time?

People are being driven towards reform because of this county's weak stand on illegal immigration. And people arriving in the country on small boats. Where everyone else has to queue for hours at passport control.

Who was PM at the time of brexit? Farage? No Boris Johnson! Farage didn’t have to power to implement the brexit

It’s not nonsense. Look at Starmers’ own speeches in which he actually says that owning your own property and having savings takes you out of the realms of the ‘ordinary working man’. And the disability benefits of which you speak are as much under attack - if not more - from Labour than the Tories. Or have you been living under a rock for the last year ?

The first people to take the brunt of any cuts are the sick, the elderly and the disabled and next year there is a brutal cut coming in for working age disability benefits (PIP) which will see thousands of genuinely disabled people lose their support. It won’t save a penny either because the government haven’t learned that just because you stop supporting a need doesn’t mean that need disappears. The cost - moderate to PIP and carers allowance system - will pass to social care. Much more expensive, not to mention inadequate. Call that support ?

Yes and it was never ever going to happen. They were not ever consistently leading in the polls. Reform has for months.

I am talking about the net migration figures (legal immigration less emigration) of 431,000 in 2024, 860,000 in 2023, 872,000 in 2022 and 484,000 in 2021. Then you add in illegal immigration, who knows what the number is for those, and is it any wonder we have a housing problem?

For many people it’s not just about the huge and unsustainable numbers, and the strain on our infrastructure, but also the rapidly changing demographics which no one was consulted about.

What, like Labour?

I think that Reform win whatever the outcome of the vote is. The main parties are so scared of them that they are implementing reform style policies and manifestos to try and convince voters that they have the same ideas. No way "island of strangers" or most of what Kemi says would have happened without Reform. They make it acceptable without having to go to all the effort and red tape of running a country.