To be starting to worry that Reform will win next GE?

[TortoiseMantle]

The polls have shown a consistent lead. Is there any realistic chance of Reform actually winning the next election?

I vote Labour, but it’s hard to see how they’ve managed to throw away such a lead in just a year, and it’s hard to see how their polling improves. The Tories maybe have more opportunity for improving, but we’re going to see a Reform government, aren’t we? Nigel Farage is going to be our next PM.

All those that keep saying reform don’t k ow how to run a country, like Keir Starmer does. He was a lawyer ffs. He came into government with no prior experience of running a country but that seems to be ok lol

Wasn’t me i agree with you about neighbours i also would not talk down about my neighbours if they vote differently to me , like the person i quoted. We can’t all think the same

Highly, highly unlikely they'll win. The numbers just aren't there and loudmouth 'Farrage the Garage' and his minions may gets few seats, sane British voters will soon get tired of his fake policies and talking crap.
I'm betting 6 seats out of 500 plus? So the annoying noisy little shit gets some attention from the wrong crowd ... and that's it.

What really annoys me as a British national (not at birth) is this disdain people cast over reform voters. Labelling people, shutting them down, making them feel ‘small’ is exactly what won Trump’s election in the US. If we want to avoid Reform government we have to stop dismissing people who have concerns. We need to give them a platform to vent without feeling that they are being judged and educate them. A bit like dealing with a teenager. Being anti-Reform doesn’t give anyone any badge of honor and doesn’t automatically make you a better person with a ticket to Heaven, right? That neighbour of yours displaying a St George’s flag - talk to them. Don’t shout your point across. Have a civilised debate, give them facts. Then leave them to mull things over.

I don’t want the tories back anytime soon, the disrepair this country is in lies solely at their feet. Labour so far are not delivering what I had hoped and I don’t want another term with them in power. What they’ve done to the job market alone is enough for me to vote them out. But I don’t want reform either so what choices have I got left? I’m guessing in four years I’ll have a clearer idea as a lot can and will change

We have never had a party swing from 4 MPs to overall majority, it’s just not how FPTP works. They may well significantly increase their numbers, but I can’t see them winning. They offer simple solutions to complex problems that just won’t work. It would be a disaster.

Posted this already but the majority of the country don’t want Labour either.

Why?

Labour out.

Nope.

Reform is attracting Tory voters not Labour voters. So people who vote Lib Dem or Green will switch to Labour to keep them out.

Or they may all form a pact to keep them out.

@LoveItaly - what exactly do you mean by “mass immigration”?

Do you mean the people on boats?
The Hong Kong citizens allowed to move over here and Ukrainian refugees?
The 326,000 approx allowed working visas who I imagine would range from social care workers, fruit pickers, skilled experts in key service areas?
30,000 odd international students who pay uni fees?

On TikTok are you seeing stories suggesting people are sneaking in some other way? Or staying illegally?? I’m interested where this mass number is coming from to cause such harm to our economy? Or do you think that 50,000 people per annum arriving on boats since Brexit are the major drain on our economy and if they went this could fix it?

You can’t possibly know that and what about all the younger voters? A lot like reform or the greens , not the main two parties.

No, and I think that's the issue. Actually implementing much of this would send the country into bankruptcy.
It is really easy being in opposition, you can promise the world and you never actually have to deliver a thing!

A somewhat simplistic view but if it makes you happy…

Its not 50000 on boats since brexit though is it, look at the figures last couple months , if it was that people would not be concerned

Labour will win again, people still won’t be over hating the tories so Labour will get another chance. Reform will do well though, I reckon. But… who knows. Can’t call it. Nobody thought brexit would happen… until it did.

I'm not that worried about reform, I think they will implode before the next election. The real concern for me is a major lurch to the right from the Tories as they seek to mop up Reform supporters.

I’m probably really stupid saying this as I don’t know how a lot of it works but maybe it’s time we realised voting isn’t enough? There’s no good option . How hard (and how expensive?) is it to start a new political party ? Surely someone somewhere has enough money to start something new and with a better vision and ethos than what we are being presented with as choices now ?

Do you think young people like Reform @healthadvice123 ?
I personally haven’t met one person under 30 who likes reform. I see it as a pale male stale party not super appealing to Gen Z / Alpha and young millennials.

Sorry read per annum, that is a lot per year in a country that is already struggling and set to potentially go up if you look at recent numbers .

It doesn't take anything magic though. Public opinion is a fickle creature and many a politician has been caught short because they got complacent.

All it takes is for people to get bored and move onto the next cause celebre. For the weather to cool and the rains to come and for everyone to go home (protests / riots / ill feeling are well knows to be exacerbated by hot weather). Hell if England does well in the upcoming football and rugby world cups it is likely to change the polls.

It's not denial to say that we can't predict the next general election based on polls today, it's simple fact. If we were two weeks away from a GE you would have a point!

Ds works as a political commentator on national press.

That’s the general thinking.

Labour are only one year in.

It’s 50,000 per anum. But they’re deporting or some once they’re processed are being given asylum

Whenever I've seen a Labour politician interviewed in the last few weeks it is patent that they now regard Reform as the opposition. Obviously their own research and polling shows them who is the danger.

I'm not a fan of Reform or all this flag stuff (which on the three occasions I've seen it in the last week has been in middle-class suburban areas) but the mainstream parties give the impression they are inert and powerless in the face of unelected bodies and rich corporations and that they have forgotten they are elected to represent the will of the people, not to scold and patronise the people and issue diktats.

It doesn't feel like we are in a true democracy but, scarily, it does feel like we are headed towards some Northern Ireland style sectarianism.

Unless there is a snap election at some point people will have 3/4 years before the next GE to realise they are rubbish

All those councils that are now reform won’t succeed and will get worse, people will remember that and understand if they can’t run one single council they certainly can’t run a country

theres also time for Labour to get their act together on immigration which is really what reform are all bout and get it sorted, same with the economy, although I am not sure Labour will

But by the next election the Tories should have bounced back