To be starting to worry that Reform will win next GE?

[TortoiseMantle]

The polls have shown a consistent lead. Is there any realistic chance of Reform actually winning the next election?

I vote Labour, but it’s hard to see how they’ve managed to throw away such a lead in just a year, and it’s hard to see how their polling improves. The Tories maybe have more opportunity for improving, but we’re going to see a Reform government, aren’t we? Nigel Farage is going to be our next PM.

District councils electing all the whole Council in a single election (the most cost efficient method) have an average cost of £201,566 per election cycle of 4 years. So running an extra one so that you don't go 6 years between elections effectively costs £100,000. (Croydon did spend £1.2million in 2022 - the highest cost council election cost - but I think analysing that discrepancy would be more appropriate than stopping elections.)

The cost of running a general election is about £150million, plus party spending in 2024 was an additional £93million. Let's not put temptation in Labour's way...

,,,Govt is providing £63million to run these additional elections.

£63m that could be spent more wisely.

the majority don't even bother to vote in Council elections, turnout is anywhere from 30% to 40%, in council by elections, its often lower.

To me, this issue is being used by opposition parties to attack Labour, rather than any genuine democracy concerns, esp as the Cons have cancelled council elections before, rightly so.

No party, outside of war, as ever cancelled a GE, so your "worries" (scaremongering) are unfounded.

It's @HelenaWaiting who suggested that Reform would cancel a general election. Reform have never cancelled an election - they've never been in power. Labour just tried to.

Oh, and the £63 million is for the re-organisation, not for the elections.

I haven't done a cost-benefit analysis on whether the cost savings of the re-organisation will justify the expense. How confident are you that the government has?

I will never vote again. Politics is full of untrustworthy people.

Honestly? none whatsoever.

As i ve told you before, i don't agree with everything Labour do, far from it.

They are being paid PLENTY of money to do anything. In private homes £400 plus a day, and the construction companies are making a killing, because there is no competition for jobs.

The problems in construction are not that there aren't enough people to do the jobs. It is the weather, travel, difficulties with planning, materials disposal, materials purchase and delivery, subcontracting and the CIS admin, cash in hand and tax evasion, and the brutality of the actual work.

Many people train and get halfway through and throw in the trowel because of the bloody nightmare of the realities of it.

Why aren't the housebuilding companies offering apprenticeships for this - when there's youth unemployment rising?

They don’t care about democracy. It’s to make themselves look like heroes upholding democracy.

They have an unelected leader and Home Secretary, that’s not very democratic now, is it? In a proper political party and not a limited company, both are elected. Zia paid Nigel £200,000 for a prominent position. Very dodgy if you ask me.

Nigel said he doesn’t want elected government, yet claimed that one of the reasons we should leave the EU was because it was full of ‘’unelected bureaucrats’’ (it wasn’t, that’s another lie)

https://www.ft.com/content/1af61dd4-b240-41d7-a627-21d255c3f888

He said three years ago that MP defections should trigger a by election with no exceptions. Until of course he accepted loads of defectors and then suddenly they didn’t matter!

He sings from the same hymnsheet as Trump, who is trying to destroy the mid terms in the states and wants to stay for a third term.

Farage says and does what suits him at any given time. He has no principles. The fact that people can’t see through him is frankly absolutely mind blowing.

The housebuilders subcontract to the contractors who usually DO have apprentices. What makes you think they don't?

They should!

In part because I’ve been trying to help my sons get apprenticeships and haven’t seen anything in my area despite huge amounts of housebuilding!

A Reform PM wiil see Wales, Scotland & Northern Ireland go their own way.

A Reform PM will have no credence or authority in the Celtic Lands.

That writing is already on the wall.

Imagine for one second Reform dictating to Sinn Fein that for Sinn Fein the ballot box has failed. Westminster has primacy, period.

Buckle up.

Reform are doing wonders for the SNP & pro-Independence.

Poll today has the SNP predicted to be just 1 seat short of a majority (with Greens & Alba that is an independence majority).

With a Reform PM in Westminster, 58% of Scots want independence.

But to go they’d need the support of Westminster. Toad face isn’t going to give that. He wants to keep it all together.

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow I'm not sure Westminster would be consulted this time.

It would not be pretty.

I don’t blame them. In the event of a Reform government and an independent Scotland I reckon the immigration rate there would be astronomical.

Re immigration, "New Scots" they are called by some up here & very welcome too.

Not sure that I'm onboard with that but, with a Reform PM...

It is disheartening. But untrustworthy politicians are a reason to engage more with politics, not less. We are the ultimate check on their power. (The judiciary and the media are the other checks - so we must also give our weight to keep them independent and non-political).

Forget party loyalty, do plenty of reading, and apply your own human judgement. Consider each party's published policies, but also check what they don't talk about - where they might spring a surprise on you - and whether you think they are trustworthy or just saying what they think you want to hear. Don't take any party's proclamation that they are the 'good guys' or their historic image/position at face value. Really look at who and what they are now.

And then use your best judgement to vote. Doing that - and really thinking about it - is more important than getting it exactly 'right' every time. It is our best protection.

The UK is the birthplace of modern democracy, from the Magna Carta through to the creation of Parliament and a constitutional monarchy; pioneers in human rights including stopping the slave trade and leaders in creating post-war international institutions; as a nation, we have decency running through our national character like writing through a stick of rock.

We're going through a dark time - and there seems to be an almost deliberate attempt to dismantle our sense of self, corrupt our understanding of the UK's history and nature; as well as politicise our institutions. But our democracy is strong. Keep faith.

Agree, whatever your politics, its important to vote.

I don't think our politics is anymore corrupt or dark than before, there is just so much more scrutiny and far less easier to hide, in the past documents could be shredded, now an email etc is almost impossible to fully delete....

I also think that for our democracy to grow we need electoral reform, FPTP might have been ok with 2 main parties, it doesn't with 4 or 5.

There are many instances of government spending money that could be ‘spent more wisely’ like the hundreds of millions spent on interpreting services in the NHS for example.

Democracy is more important though and who knows whether these council re-orgs will even happen? Given the number of u turns from this government - it’s clearly not a given.

The reorganisation has already begun so it will definitely happen. Incidentally the highest NHS annual spend on interpretation was £40 million. It’s a blatant waste of money to hold two elections in as many years.

Loss of public trust incurs many costs - this is just one of them.

Addressing the reasons for the loss of public trust is much harder - but would have much more positive impact - than trying to suppress the consequences of that loss of trust (which ends up reducing trust still further)