To be starting to worry that Reform will win next GE?

[TortoiseMantle]

The polls have shown a consistent lead. Is there any realistic chance of Reform actually winning the next election?

I vote Labour, but it’s hard to see how they’ve managed to throw away such a lead in just a year, and it’s hard to see how their polling improves. The Tories maybe have more opportunity for improving, but we’re going to see a Reform government, aren’t we? Nigel Farage is going to be our next PM.

We understand full well why this is happening, but Reform is a cult. You can’t get through to most of them. They have made it part of their identity thanks to clever and persistent manipulation that made people blame foreigners for every ill, it’s a tale as old as time. I’m sick of trying, as I imagine are most people.

I won’t lie, I’m scared of the future, not just for me but others, but I have become more accepting now. I can’t control how people vote or who gets into power, so we will just have to suffer the consequences, sadly. I’m tired.

Most of us have tried till we are blue in the face to have reasonable respectful debate.

I voted Remain and I will never vote Reform, but I must admit, I have not really seen this.

But if you think it's a lost cause and there's no point actually trying to dissuade people from voting Reform, fill your boots with the "stupid, thick, uneducated" stuff. I guess you might as well, if it really is impossible to change. Also pointless worrying and complaining, if it's already inevitable.

I see Reform supporters as people who have reached their limit with the main parties. They feel lied to and let down on repeat. I don't see it as a reflection of low intelligence or comprehension.

I don’t think it’s necessarily inevitable. There could be a strong enough appetite to keep them from power that people vote tactically like hell, but what will be will be. It would be more productive to bang my head against a brick wall than try to reasonably debate the with reform supporters.

It’s no one else’s responsibility to pursuade them. There are non so blind and all that. You can’t convince someone using logic if they didn’t use logic to arrive at their position in the first place.

It’s both. It’s multi factorial.

Unfortunately, people are unwilling to look beyond themselves, and Farage knows that. He plays up to the herd mentality.
I saw Starmer's response to Trump's tariffs on FB earlier. Trump is a dangerous, dangerous man. I really feel for the people of Greenland right now, and if Trump does try to take it by force it will have worldwide ramifications, especially for NATO.
Still, the comments to Starmer's post = "Yeah, but what about the boats?" "Why do you care so much about the people of Greenland, and not about the boat people invading our own country?". People just can't get beyond that. Farage knows that. Still, the poor guy was too unwell today to face Laura Kuenssberg's questions about his mate's tariffs. I hipe he is recovering well at home in Clacton ...

Well, if you don't think it's inevitable, then you can think about whether telling them they're thick and stupid and uneducated etc is the path to changing course. It definitely won't sway people who already vote Reform. And I don't actually think it will stop people voting Reform if they are considering it. It'll just stop them from telling you.

Reform are seeing what people are fed up with regarding the major parties, which have definitely cocked up in a number of ways. Telling people they're thick and stupid for being pissed off with the main parties (which is where I suspect a lot of Reform support really comes from, rather than an inherent love of what it stands for) isn't going to change that. Ironically, it's not a very intelligent or educated approach.

I guess you're right that it's not your responsibility to try to persuade people, but if you care that much about keeping Reform out then it seems a pretty weak response. Why bother even going on about how stupid etc they are, if that's the case? To what purpose is it?

I really hope Reform will a lot of seats in the May elections (at least some of which have not been cancelled because the councillors are scared of losing) and I hope they win the next general election

It has no purpose, I suppose, but you get to the point where you start thinking I’ve had enough of treating people with caution in case they react a certain way and/ or vote for reform. All it’s really doing is validating their bigotry.

Time to call a spade a spade. I might try and talk to someone quite clearly on the fence with rudimentary knowledge, but otherwise debating does no good except making people double down anyway. Most people have already nailed their flag to the mast.

In what other areas of life would you be too scared to say what you think in case someone reacts in a way you don’t want? You’d think that person needed to learn self regulate like a grown up, wouldn’t you?

Responding to the last 20 ish posts only, I hate Farage and will never vote for him or any of his sympathizers. But I also dislike the current versions of both major parties and as a very centrist person, I am never going to vote for a Green party or any fringe. My vote right now, if only for a few days, is going to Kemi. Because I just think she is pretty sensible, and so too is Keir. I really don't mind between then. I also like Wes Streeting and Shaban Mahmoud. On the Tory side, the options are thinner, but I would like to see Rishi Sunak back in the frame;

but you get to the point where you start thinking I’ve had enough of treating people with caution

Ironically, I think that's how Reform supporters feel and it's largely why they vote Reform. I guess it depends on what circles you move in, but I think it generally pretty unpopular to admit to voting Reform, and yet so many people do that we are legitimately concerned they could win the next election.

I guess it's time to think of outcomes, what you think you can help to make happen and what you're willing to do to make that happen. If the outcome you want is to stop Reform taking power, you need to rethink the strategy of calling its supporters all sorts of names because that isn't going to give you the outcome you want. If the outcome you want is to vent your frustrations and feel like a good person, then by all means keep on with it, although it doesn't really seem to be soothing you.

My local council is Reform controlled now and honestly I don't want that rot to spread further and I'd like them to lose power the next time we get the chance. Even if it's not my responsibility to persuade people, even if I've tried being nice for years (I don't think many people have, whatever they say), whatever, that is the outcome I want. The more people who drive Reform support by telling everyone they're stupid and inferior and have no legitimate concerns, the harder that's going to be.

The problem is that we’ve had both political parties have terms in government and it hasn’t worked out.
The government should be getting involved in lowering food prices and energy costs.
The government should be stopping the men coming over on the boats and let’s be honest here, the illegal immigrants are mostly young men.
Illegal immigrants could be helping their local communities by doing voluntary work such as litterpicking, gardening, painting and making a difference. They are getting a good life and all bills covered and living in a warm hotel.
There is a migrant hotel in the town I live in and there have been a lot of issues regarding inappropriate behaviour from some migrants. If people saw them contributing to the area it would be beneficial for them and the locals.
Lowering taxes for people or increasing the minimum wage would make such a difference.

There is a migrant hotel in the town I live in and there have been a lot of issues regarding inappropriate behaviour from some migrants.

Same here. I have talked to a few people in the immediate vicinity and they have had issues with break ins and women not feeling safe due to certain behaviours. One of them said she wanted to have a conversation about it that didn't devolve into racism, but she also didn't want to be called a thick racist for wanting to have the conversation.

@Teaandbiscuits , I don't think most people are very committed to politics or parties. I am engaged with politics, but not with parties. I have never joined any organisation ever in 70 years. It doesn't mean that I lack opinions or convictions. I have plenty of those, expressed here regularly for all to read/see. But my life has not left me the time or opportunity or desire to wish to seek to be the representative for my community. I applaud and cheer everyone who does, and I am grateful to them for doing what is a fairly thankless task, and not paid well enough for the job IMO.

The government should be getting involved in lowering food prices and energy costs.

@dentalflosser How? Food prices are based on the cost of producing food, plus a living for the farmer. Likewise energy. How do you think food and energy can be made cheaper?

Dairy farmers with milking herds have had their payments decline almost 25p per litre produced since October. They are now getting less than the cost of production. Would you slaughter 25% of your herd to reduce the amount of milk you produce to keep your price, which will mean your milk costs 25% more at Tesco? You choose.

I choose to buy milk from the farmer's milk station locally. He fills it, it's automated so I pay electronically, and my litre bottle is filled. The farmer gets the money and it is his money. I see his cows grazing the fields; I see them go in for milking and coming back from milking 90 minutes later. I watch that farmer fertilise his fields, I smell the shit he sprays to help the grass grow better. He works from 5 am to 9pm. I know, because I see him doing so. You?

Farage represents the wishes of oligarch lobbyists. Not ordinary people.

Putting him in Clacton was taking the piss out of the people there as he does not care for them at all. He’s going to WEF in Davos - what the tits does that have to do with Clacton ?

The guy represents billionaires, appears to have taken Russian money, and is absolutely not working in the interests of the people of Clacton or even the UK as a whole.

Anyone voting for his party is voting against British interests.

Most of us have tried till we are blue in the face to have reasonable respectful debate.

I dispute this.

What a lot of remainer did was talk AT people and tell them how wrong they were etc.

What few have done is really LISTEN to grievances which for the most part, I've actually thought fairer than most give credit for - what i disagree with is the rational and apportioning of blame attached to those grievances.

But in dismissing the grievance and acknowledging the legitimacy at the heart of it, Remainers have failed create alternative narratives, thereby alienating even further. They've failed to come up with any practical solutions.

Much of this is connected to economics and opportunity. A lot of Green supporters have a lot in common with Reform supporters. Its really weird to watch. What they do is apportion blame differently for the same core issues. And much of this is a reaction to the failure of the mainstream parties to acknowledge and deal with the issue.

I find both equally out of touch with reality but Green supporters have created this idea that because they tend to be more educated they know best. In reality they show just as little in depth understanding of issues as Reform supporters.

Its fascinating to watch playing out and the political egos.

The worst part is there too much talking and not enough listening. There actually substantial agreement on a lot of issues, if only people approached the same subject from a different angle with less closed minds.

Its surprised me how much common ground there is on a lot of subject - but no one is really looking for this because they are too busy shouting about how wrong everyone else is on the same subject.

No one listens to other people, not really, not you @RedToothBrush me or anyone else, we have our own ideas, beliefs, you recently completely dismissed an argument i put forward, no attempt at "understanding.... you've a huge political ego... as no doubt i have too!

Common ground? what would that be?

Take Brexit, binary issue, their cannot be even partial agreement.

Back then i did try, join EFTA, utter waste of time "Thats not Brexit..." reality is, it would have kept me and most remainers happy, whilst still leaving the EU and being able to make our own FTA's....

Could Brexitiers (on here or anywhere else) agree? nope.

So now, i've realised its a waste of time, people engaged in politics, have already made up their minds.

I think it's worse than this. Most people don't understand how they are governed, who does what, who pays for what and how etc etc.
I have a pretty good working knowledge because I've worked as a journalist. My children have absorbed that knowledge from me.
But many people's politics are reduced to sets of beliefs without realising that they are unrealistic, unworkable or unaffordable.

The only way to stop the rise of Reform up here is to vote SNP which I will do so.

Scottish Conservatism is a busted flush.

Can anyone actually imagine Farage turning up to the HoP as Pm and putting in a solid days/weeks/months worth of work?!?

Hes never done that in his entire life has he, let’s face it. Snipes from the sidelines and then off to the pub for a pint and a fag.

He’s going to absolutely buckle under the strain isn’t he…

He said the other week in a times radio interview (that he did for £££ instead of attending PMQ’s because he was having a tantrum over it not being about him enough) that he would hold PMQ’s twice a week as its only fair to the electorate 😂😂

I love Ben Habib - he is the man I want in No. 10 under the Advance UK party.