To be starting to worry that Reform will win next GE?

[TortoiseMantle]

The polls have shown a consistent lead. Is there any realistic chance of Reform actually winning the next election?

I vote Labour, but it’s hard to see how they’ve managed to throw away such a lead in just a year, and it’s hard to see how their polling improves. The Tories maybe have more opportunity for improving, but we’re going to see a Reform government, aren’t we? Nigel Farage is going to be our next PM.

😳

To be honest, so do I - he seems like the only adult in the room!

@GentleSheep Ben Habib has dangerous views on devolution.

Farage had a long radio interview on Radio 4 today. Farage is in large part responsible for Brexit, which has fucked and continues to fuck the UK. In the interview he had the cheek to say that the UK is in a complete mess and there's a big brain drain as people leave the sinking ship. And instead of acknowledging that this is in large part because of Brexit, he said that this was a reason why he needs to be in power.

That's only because he cannot resist any opportunity to get his foul face on telly.

The Petition signature link below is to ask Starmer to abolish FPTP in favour of a more representative political system.

actionnetwork.org/petitions/the-elections-bill-must-scrap-first-past-the-post?nowrapper=true&referrer=&source=direct_link

Absolutely not. I cannot abide this current government but I want a single party government that is capable of acting quickly and cannot dodge accountability.

He will never do it. None of the main parties will. FPTP is the only way any of them can get into power.

I don't, the UK's next Govt will be elected by less than 30% of the voting electorate, regardless of who wins.

So 70% of the UK will be totally unrepresented, that is not democracy and it will not lead to accountability, as we have seen over many decades.

One reason (among many) Labour get so much hate is because just 34% of people who voted, voted Labour - that is less than 10million people, leaves an awful lot of disgruntled voters.

Can you explain why you think Reform is a cult?

Afaik, cults (like certain religions) have pretty high barriers to exit. I’m not sure anyone will suffer any violent consequences if they decide not to support Reform?

Maybe the bit you have missed is that many people will find it impossible to vote for any of the other parties with their various terrible failings. What do you suggest they do?

Maybe that’s why Labour are so bothered about the Muslim vote.

Apparently in 2019, 80% of Muslims voted Labour. As there were 3.9 million in the UK at the time, (obviously more now), that is over 3 million of Labour’s 10 million vote.

That is a voter turnout of a good sized demographic that any political party would die for, and sounds like it would have quite an impact on an election result. Although tempered somewhat by fptp and the high concentration of Muslims in some constituencies.

Some of the more extreme groups are very upset with Labour, obviously expecting far more Muslim friendly policies than Labour are already offering - the reluctance to progress the rape gangs inquiry, definition of Islamophobia to limit free speech and refusal to address first cousin marriage not being enough. Will Labour go further to appease them in the next election? Their numbers will be greater by then.

www.electionanalysis.uk/uk-election-analysis-2024/section-2-voters-polls-and-results/changing-pattern-amongst-muslim-voters-the-labour-party-gaza-and-voter-volatility/

Out of interest, which party do you feel currently actually is working FOR British interests?

Well it’s not our lovely Labour Party is it

You think voter turn out among Muslims is 100% and 80% of them vote Labour.... you really think that?

Yes there are more Muslims in the UK, Bojo/Sunak let in approx 4m extra migrants mostly from Asia and Africa

Yet another rape gang inquiry is going forward and Labour are implementing all the recommendations from the Jay national rape gang inquiry that reported in 2022 but which the Tories totally ignored.....

Hardly in UK interests.

So it's on the news today that if / when Reform get into government they will get rid of the Equality Act. It will then be perfectly legal to discriminate against women (for being female or for being pregnant), disabled people, ethnic minority people, old people, young people, people who follow a religion, people who are gender critical, people who are gay, trans people, etc.

A smaller but significant problem is the severe shortage of construction trades and skills. Those people can’t be got, either domestically or in regional and national projects. A good may have gone back to EU countries, not surprisingly. So will Nigel Farage be plastering my bathroom?

I know and Reform are boasting about it!

It will also remove the right NOT to be victimised if you make a complaint in the work place!

Good news is Reform are down to 24% Labour on 18% Tories, remarkably only on 18%. (YouGov 17th Feb)

No single Westminster party represents Northern Ireland, Scotland or Wales.

In each "Celtic Nation" anti-UK parties are in the lead with Reform & Labour fighting second place.

Sinn Fein, SNP & Plaid like it or not are looking likely to return First Ministers.

No mainstream Westminster political party - Labour, Conservative or LibDem returning a UK PM can claim that they represent the Irish, Scots or Welsh by dint of sitting in Westminster.

One Nation, One Country is a lie.

If England votes that Donald Duck should become PM & Goofy his Chancellor then under the UK's current FPTP system that is what we all get.

True democracy is being stifled by a Westminster jealous of it's power, unwilling to accept that sufficient numbers of voters in NI, Scotland & Wales cannot stomach this current situation.

Footnote: for the 4th time in a row, the pro-UK Times has sponsored an independence poll. The results are not being published or discussed. Why? 51% of Scots, over 4 polls now want independence. This rises to 58% if Farage becomes PM.

Those wanting to keep the Union had better start sharing power better & reform FPTP.

Pay more money and they will get people to do those jobs. There are no "jobs British people don't WANT to do". If a job pays a million pounds a year, they will be overwhelmed with applicants.

You do actually have to train to do those jobs. There are not enough trained and experienced people to do the work that needs to be done. If you offer a lot, you may be able to poach a tradesman from someone else, but there remains a shortage.

So why didn't those industries invest in training a long time ago, the Brexit vote was 10 years ago? Do any of these jobs require 10 years training?

The UK has two Construction Industry Training Boards which train people, and pay grants to companies for training, and is fully funded by the industry themselves, since the 1960s.

Well, enjoy casting your vote. Because if Reform win it will be the last time you'll vote for a very long time.

What on earth are you basing that on?!

Reform have just forced Labour to U-turn on cancelling elections, by starting a law suit against them. Labour are paying Reform's costs - which suggests that they know their proposal was illegal.

Real previous actions clearly show the risk you talk about is from Labour, not Reform.

Well that may be the case but it will be the Council Tax payers in these areas funding another set of elections in a year or two's time, that'll be millions less for social care, roads etc and/or high council tax.

Not that the multi millionaires in Reform will care.

TBH, considering Reform say they will cut out waste, i can think of nothing more wasteful than voting a council that wont even exist very shortly.