To be starting to worry that Reform will win next GE?

[TortoiseMantle]

The polls have shown a consistent lead. Is there any realistic chance of Reform actually winning the next election?

I vote Labour, but it’s hard to see how they’ve managed to throw away such a lead in just a year, and it’s hard to see how their polling improves. The Tories maybe have more opportunity for improving, but we’re going to see a Reform government, aren’t we? Nigel Farage is going to be our next PM.

Completely agree. If Reform makes it into power the multi vehicle pile up will dwarf anything we’ve seen in our lifetimes.

Because there are 5 choices in the next GE, Reform command less than 25% of the (potential) vote.

The vast majority don't support nor want a Reform Govt.

We've a very poor voting system, with Labour showing no intention to change it, why should they?
Gave them a huge majority on a similar low level of support.

I think the breadth v depth thing will do for Reform, plus their woeful record in local government. They have a lot of support in some consituencies and little support in others., wheras it doesn't really matter of you have a little support in a lot of constituencies as long as you have more than the others, as Labour did. The areas where they have a lot of support have largely got Reform MP's mayors and councils, so they have a 5 year taste of what they are like. I think now that they are a dumping ground for disaffected Tories, the Conservatives may have a resurgence. Its far easier if you are Centrist ( which the majority of the country is) to hold your nose about some things and vote Tory instead of Labour than it is to vote Green or Reform.

No there aren't. There is the illusion of five choices. In reality most people look at their local candidates and go 'well it's a choice between that candidate or that candidate ' and vote accordingly completely ignoring all the other on the ballot.

I think it’s a possibility unfortunately.

I think already the cracks are beginning to show with Reform; various Reform-led councils spending money on flags and Farage leaving Clapton high and dry. However, the amount of media time Reform are given is worrying.

Labour have let the country down, which I thought would be hard to do seeing as the bar was so low after over a decade of Tory mess. Reform isn’t the answer though. I don’t know what the answer is to be honest. I’ll be voting Green and praying the universe sends some common sense and decency to the world the men hellbent on destroying everything for their own benefit.

I’ve always found that people are more tended towards voting for a party leader over a candidate. In my constituency reform are predicted to unseat my MP by a sizeable margin, yet no one knows who the candidate is yet. Loads are saying they love Nigel.

I always vote to keep my MP, but I get the impression most don’t give a stuff who is contesting the seat, only the party they represent.

The amount of tactical voting in 2024 doesn’t support that. It will be on steroids in 2029. It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if we end up with another coalition government.

I’ve never found this. I and everyone l know votes for a party.

Really interested to know who you think should win op? The country is in a shambles so would you really stick with labour? I don’t know who I would vote for yet but I’d say there’s a good chance reform could win as people are so fed up.

Can they do this? Surely council meetings etc are open to FOI requests. Their performance needs to be watched carefully, and given in evidence come the GE. This demonstrates who they are.
Scary times.
It's given me a thought actually a citizens panel on EVERY council with access to all council dealings. Then REFORM can't whinge that they are being singled out?
Aby thoughts?

That’s interesting. I suppose in Reform’s case it is the party but since they don’t really have any coherent policies then if they didn’t have Farage as the figurehead they wouldn’t have a cat in hell’s chance of governance. It’s his ‘man of the people’ performance that’s attracting a lot of support.

People are always saying they want a charismatic leader though, and that’s why a lot of people were saying they voted for Johnson, so in a lot of cases i think it can be the leader unless you have a long standing allegiance to one of the established parties.

I could be wrong, it’s just something I’ve noticed.

The pull of a charismatic leader has always been and always will be extremely powerful within politics regardless of the parties politics

people voted for Boris Johnson knowing he was a liar, that he was dishonest but felt he was the type of person that could lead us through Brexit

People voted for Trump for similar reasons he can make America great again

you have to remember the majority of people do not have much interest in everyday politics what is happening now will be largely irrelevant in three year time come election year especially when we have such quick changing politics as we do now

Labour would never ever have won three consecutive elections being lead by Gordon Brown a dedicated hard working politician that can’t be denied whatever your politics but Tony Blair absolutely had the charisma to carry Labour to win elections even in the third election when their popularity dropped considerably

It doesn’t mean they have to be likeable or as history tells us seen as honest but having a party leader that people listen too gets people attention is more powerful than having a set of election proposals that sound promising

@BIossomtoes, a coalition sounds promising, but which coalition? Keir and Kemi, with the most competent members of their respective front benchers possibly...

That’s where we definitely part company - good thing it’s as remote a possibility as me voting Reform!

I think there's a very real chance of them getting in because all the fools that voted for Brexit (and hasn't that been brilliant) will vote Reform.

People without a clue vote for whoever shouts loudest.

Farage is a narcissist right up there with the likes of Trump. They say exactly what they know people want to hear - and there are always enough not very bright people to fall for it.

There is absolutely a good chance of Farage being our next PM this has to be taken seriously

I think Reform are likely to implode before the next election Farage is great on the campaign trail everyday politics not so much and Reform is very much the party of Farage

I would welcome any coalition if the main parties if it meant Reform are not in government. I welcome the Tories winning back voters and let’s not forgot a number of Labour voters will also vote Reform

I would like to see Labour and the Tories together work on a strategy to keep Reform out I think this would be beneficial to the country it it won’t happen as both will be scrambling for voters

Oh my goodness! If anyone regularly watches the Reform Party representatives on BBC question time, how they conduct themselves and the antagonistic anti migrant rhetoric they spew - that alone is enough to put me off for life!!

Reform voters? Stupid, uneducated, thick...straight off the turnip truck. In my experience they're also the ones who believed Bojo the Clown's lies and voted for Brexit!
Haven't the grifting self-serving defectors taught them anything?

Farridge is a friend of Trump and is his puppet. Trump is the puppet of Putin.
We're all doomed.

This characterisation of Reform supporters is dangerous. It's like people haven't learned anything in ten years. It's increasingly not what I'm seeing either and that troubles me. There are some perfectly reasonable and educated people considering voting for him. THAT'S the problem.

Added to which, if you want to dissuade people from voting Reform, then telling them what thick, worthless gammon they are might make you feel good about yourself, but it won't win people over.

I’m getting my docs together to finally get my Irish passport sorted. I need an escape plan.

Ireland is also in a right mess and no houses left I hear....

I agree

but people don’t learn. The didn’t learn during Brexit (totally ignored the increased in UKIP support) and after Brexit. For years Farage was mocked and look where we are

Good politics is about listening and engaging not lecturing

by jumping up and down calling people thick, uneducated etc you are doing half of Farage’s job for him

Well I’m sorry but if they voted for Brexit and are still stupid enough to vote for Reform, and are also stupid enough to vote for reform purely because someone called them thick, then that’s exactly what they are.

Most of us have tried till we are blue in the face to have reasonable respectful debate. It doesn’t work. I for one I’m sick to death of trying to appease them. They weren’t ever open to it anyway.

You personally may have and who said anything about appeasing

for many it’s become a past time to mock and demand what they perceive as intelligent answers its not about wanting to change people minds for many it’s about telling people they are wrong

History tells us that division in society creates political change if people are not willing to understand why this is happening then history just repeats itself

and Trump and Farage manipulate both sides of the argument with a frightening ease