To be starting to worry that Reform will win next GE?

[TortoiseMantle]

The polls have shown a consistent lead. Is there any realistic chance of Reform actually winning the next election?

I vote Labour, but it’s hard to see how they’ve managed to throw away such a lead in just a year, and it’s hard to see how their polling improves. The Tories maybe have more opportunity for improving, but we’re going to see a Reform government, aren’t we? Nigel Farage is going to be our next PM.

But you are othering them "privileged kids" ie not like normal kids. You are making assumptions based on stereotypes and applying those to all children in independent schools.
Just for balance this is court verdict on these "privileged" children:

I don’t wish to derail the thread. I thought my point was pertinent as education tax and associated rhetoric is just one example of weaponising ignorance and scapegoating Labour have used. It’s hypocritical of Labour supporters to accuse other political parties of the exact same thing.

@ThatWaryOchreQuoter have you got it out of your system now? This was an interesting thread...

When you’ve been screwed over repeatedly by the only other viable choice, l can understand how sometimes robotic, lifeless and wooden can seem like the safe option. The Tories were an absolute shitshow of monumental proportions by the time the election was called. People here have very short memories.

You are still othering them though: '
"Wealthy members of society" ie not like "us" ie othering. Because these so called wealthy people are not like us then it's fine to tax them more.
You are using an assumption based on stereotypes when the court clearly stated it wasn't the case.

VAT supporters always accuse thread de-railing wrt taxing children's education as not being relevant, yet seemingly it's relevant to continually bring up Truss and the Tories.

@twistyizzy the vast majority aren't impacted & don't care. And I say this as a parent who hasn't ruled out private.

That’s not the same thing at all. Labour’s education tax wasn’t “weaponising ignorance” – it was a financial policy change. People could agree or disagree with it, but it wasn’t about blaming or dehumanising anyone, and it certainly hasn’t led to people being harassed or attacked.

Labour voters weren’t being lied to about VAT, or encouraged to go out and set fire to schools. Compare that with the way Farage and Reform deliberately weaponise ignorance around refugees – feeding people a steady diet of lies and fear until hotels are attacked, families are harassed, and lives are put at risk.

Yes, you can call both “comparisons” in the loosest possible sense, but it’s wildly unfair. One is a policy argument. The other is a campaign of sustained scapegoating that’s put real people in danger.

Refugee scapegoating isn’t the same as taxing private schools

Non-state school children scapegoating isn’t the same as border control. I’m not sure you understand due to your biases.

There are many other alternatives than labour. Someone who is lifeless and robotic, with no personality and who dodges questions was never going to be a better alternative.

Can Labour come back from the mess they have made? Can the Tories show credibility before the next election?

Equating the two is dangerous. A policy about taxing private schools is not scapegoating children – nobody is blaming kids, nobody is calling them parasites or invaders, and nobody is being stirred up to attack them. It’s a debate about privilege and taxation, full stop.
Refugees, by contrast, are explicitly dehumanised – called criminals, invaders, and worse – and that rhetoric has fuelled real violence. Pretending those two things are “equal” doesn’t just blur lines, it trivialises the danger of sustained scapegoating and makes it easier for it to continue.
They are not the same. Not even close. And treating them as if they are only helps the people who profit from weaponising ignorance in the first place.

Labour’s education tax wasn’t “weaponising ignorance”
I’m sorry but it’s a blatant example.

Labour voters weren’t being lied to about VAT
Are you being serious?

or encouraged to go out and set fire to schools
Are you implying Reform have encouraged this?

"Labour voters weren’t being lied to about VAT" yes get were! They were lied to that money was going to state schools, the impact on SEND, the number of independent schools that would close and the numbers of children who would leave independent schools and therefore have to be funded by taxpayer.

"nobody is calling them parasites or invaders"
Er posters on MN have called them (ie children) cunts and twats. Even the words entitled and privileged have huge connotations

FFS

Where did I say they're "not like us?"
I fall into the same financial bracket as many of the better-off parents who send their kids to the local private schools. I do not receive any benefits, and I pay a frankly depressing amount of tax because of this.

They weren’t calling disabled people turkeys, it was a continuation of the previous comment about turkeys voting for Christmas. And why have you assumed they were talking about disabled people when the reference to cutting benefits wasn’t specific ?

There were many other alternatives l agree, but l said ‘viable’.

Look let’s not let this thread be derailed into an education tax one, the results speak for themselves that it was scapegoating and weaponising of ignorance and spite. One of many examples of Labours doing this.

There are lots of legitimate points to argue against a Reform Government, but it’s extremely hypocritical of Labour supporters to accuse them
of ‘weaponising ignorance’ and only further hurts their cause.

They might well get in. Most people will vote Anyone But Labour I expect.

Actually Suella Braverman literally called them invaders

https://www.kcl.ac.uk/suella-bravermans-talk-of-a-refugee-invasion-is-a-dangerous-political-gambit-gone-wrong

But im talking about the reform supporters you see in swathes on social media and speak to outside the hotels.

They call them far worse than invaders and parasites, im afraid

Reform would be a disaster. All Farage does is rile up the masses. He basically throws a hand grenade into the room and runs away. He’s all talk but scarily too many believe the crap that comes out of his mouth. My biggest fear is that he’ll get rid of the NHS. It’s too bad that so many believe his lies. It’s the poorest in our society that will be hit the most by what Reform would do to this country. And yet it’s the poorest that he targets with his spin.

I encourage everyone to listen The Trawl podcast to get an understanding of what a disaster Reform winning the next GE would be.

Bring up what you want, thats what a forum is about isn't it?

Truss is in response to posters bringing up Gilt yields, she increased them by almost 300%, they have gone up around 15% under labour

VAT on school fees? people don't like new taxes, we need money for the things we want.
I don't like it that my pension is now inc in IHT but i accept that if we want better public services, they need paying for.

My view is PS is a luxury, hence should be taxed as such, there is a state alternative but if over the next few years it raises nothing, then it should be reversed but the IFS thinks it will raise around 6bn over the course of the Parliament.