To be starting to worry that Reform will win next GE?

[TortoiseMantle]

The polls have shown a consistent lead. Is there any realistic chance of Reform actually winning the next election?

I vote Labour, but it’s hard to see how they’ve managed to throw away such a lead in just a year, and it’s hard to see how their polling improves. The Tories maybe have more opportunity for improving, but we’re going to see a Reform government, aren’t we? Nigel Farage is going to be our next PM.

What they say still carries weight as respected Labour politicians though. People will listen to them.
You've also superbly missed the point 👏 the fact that mere months after Farage said it, Labour politicians are now also saying it.

I am very sorry to hear that. I worked at a private school up until Easter and I saw none of it, so I am lucky perhaps.

Its still not the same as continual headlines, dehumanisation and street violence.

Labour are basically doing what every government does, i.e.e getting the unpopular stuff done at the beginning of their term. The shit show they inherited was unprecedented, because Johnson and Truss were so spectacularly useless and Sunak was ineffective.

I do think however that Labour are going to have to bite the bullet and put tax up, rather than trying to save money on things like SEND provision. Doing something effective about tax evasion would be an excellent start.

I’ve just complained to the bbc about their unfair coverage of the parties: https://www.bbc.co.uk/contact/complaints

I said the below: Dear BBC complaints,

I am writing to highlight concerns with the disproportionate and biased coverage given to Reform UK on the BBC, seemingly against your own Editorial values to “operate in the public interest – reporting stories of significance to audiences and holding power to account.” and “seeking to reflect the views and experiences of audiences, so that its output as a whole includes a breadth and diversity of opinion”

Reform UK has just 5 MPs, yet its leader Nigel Farage is given significantly more airtime and prominence on BBC programs. In contrast, the Liberal Democrats have 72 MPs and represent a much larger share of parliament, yet receive far less coverage.

The BBC news app yesterday had multiple different articles about Reform’s policies as the lead stories on the home page throughout the day. They have never done that with the Green Party who have the same number of MPs. Add in “Almost a quarter of women aged 18 to 24 voted Green last July, roughly double the number of young men who voted Reform, though predictably it’s the latter who have since got all the attention.” From the article: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/25/young-men-reform-women-green-voters

This lack of proportionality misleads viewers about the real balance of political power in the UK and undermines the BBC’s duty to provide fair, impartial representation.
Please explain how the BBC will address this imbalance and ensure that the coverage reflects actual parliamentary representation.

Thank you. 

I haven't said it is but there has been a slew of hatred towards children which was created by Phillipson and the divisive language she's continually used.

@awkwardasfuck This is a great example of weaponising ignorance, it’s so ingrained you are unable to see the hypocrisy. It’s okay to scapegoat U.K. children but not refugees, I don’t agree.

That’s not the point.

The point is that the Overton window on leaving the ECHR is clearly moving.

kids whose wealthy parents might have to pay VAT and can no longer afford private school are in a completely different world to children fleeing warzones, famine, violence and persecution. One is about privilege and access to elite education, the other is about basic survival. Equating the two is lazy and ignores the scale of harm that scapegoating refugees has already caused.

Starmer seems to veer between blaming the last govt for everything and then suddenly shifting to oh, it’s fine, we’re fixing it, nothing to see here. Labour’s comms are terrible but I think that’s because half the time they don’t know what to say.

You’ve put words in my mouth. I’m not Labour, I don’t vote Labour, and I’m not blaming any children. The point is that refugee scapegoating is long-term, systemic, and aimed at some of the most vulnerable people with almost no voice. Criticism of private schooling is occasional, clumsy, and about inequality in a system of privilege. One has led to real-world violence, harassment and arson attempts; the other is just political point-scoring. You don’t have to like Labour to see the difference—you just need to think it through.

At no point have I AGREED that Labour was right to scapegoat privileged kids. I saw through it. i worked at a private school until earlier this year, and believe me, nobody left because of the fee increase, business cracked on as usual. No kids were demonised, they all still went on their ski trip.

Just as I see through reforms scapegoating of refugees which is broader, more sinister, and is whipping swathes of the country into a frenzy. There was not a frenzy about schoolkids.

Nope. It’s the Lib Dems in 2008 all over again, when it comes to it people won’t vote for them.

You’ve been manipulated to view a group of children as ‘other’ and to blame for something you are not happy about in your life, it’s basic stuff.

Have I?

Who am I blaming? What am I not happy about?

who is scapegoating private school kids? Labour briefly, whilst VAT was placed on wealthy members of society. Who bought it? perhaps a few. not me - and it's old news now.

who is scapegoating refugees? Farage - who has whipped up the vulnerable in our society to blame anyone coming here to escape horrors we will never understand, distracting them whilst his rich mates ransack the place.

Is this going to be another thread derailed by VAT on private education?

Thanks to @ThatWaryOchreQuoter- I believe so

Exactly

Who are they accusing here? I don't see anyone who believes privileged kids are "other" in any way shape or form.

They're fortunate. Nobody is blaming them for that.

Exactly!

The blame shifting though is getting ridiculous. They can’t blame the tories for a 50 billion pound black hole when it was only a 22 billion black hole when they first got into power.
The “oh we are fixing it” are just empty words because they have no answer.

@Julen7 I don't think the electorate wants to acknowledge the shit storm we are in. I genuinely think some voters have turned to Reform because they want to believe we can have low taxes & great public services. I would like a party to be completely honest but I don't think that would make them popular.

He wasn’t Rishi Sunak ?

Is that the only thing Labour voters base their decision on? How anybody can vote someone in who looks robotic, lifeless and wooden and are unable to answer questions is beyond me.

I‘m equating the two, in that it’s both about weaponising ignorance and scapegoating. Either it’s a legitimate way for political parties to behave or it’s not, your personal prejudices against different groups of children should be irrelevant to its legitimacy.

Each party has clear policies they align with. Given that the poster I responded to said they would vote for them, I’m curious as to what particular policies they are so keen on?

Refugee scapegoating isn’t the same as taxing private schools. One is decades of dehumanising vulnerable people—fuel for violence, harassment and arson. The other is a policy debate about whether wealthy parents should pay VAT. No one is demonising those children’s right to exist or turning them into tabloid hate figures. Pretending they’re equivalent is disingenuous because it ignores the implications of each campaign.

Scapegoating refugees predictably leads to real harm and danger, and the politicians pushing it KNOW that. If you truly believe they’re the same, you’ve just admitted you can’t tell the difference between scapegoating inevitably leading to taxing privilege and scapegoating inevitably leading to fuelling violence.

Ah yes, just what this thread needs - the language police. ‘Gimp’ would only be a derogatory term used for a disabled person, if directed at a disabled person as it has several meanings not connected with disability. It can also be used to describe those with sado masichistic tendencies, decorative trim on soft furnishings or to refer to an unpleasant or stupid person - so the poster was using it in the right context !!