To be starting to worry that Reform will win next GE?

[TortoiseMantle]

The polls have shown a consistent lead. Is there any realistic chance of Reform actually winning the next election?

I vote Labour, but it’s hard to see how they’ve managed to throw away such a lead in just a year, and it’s hard to see how their polling improves. The Tories maybe have more opportunity for improving, but we’re going to see a Reform government, aren’t we? Nigel Farage is going to be our next PM.

Could Boris come ‘back’ to lead it? I’ve heard some discuss this.

Oh come on, that’s not a fair comparison. Refugees have been consistently and heavily weaponised for decades across every election cycle, turned into scapegoats for everything from housing shortages to NHS waiting times – things they have no power over. They’re a vulnerable group with little voice or political protection, which is why they’re such an easy target for parties like Reform.

Parents who can afford to send their children to private schools, on the other hand, are not a vulnerable group. They’re not at risk of violence in the street, they’re not being demonised in tabloids as a “threat,” and they’re not being used to justify tearing up international law. Yes, Labour sometimes takes a swipe at the inequity of private education, but it’s a policy debate about wealth and privilege, not a wholesale demonisation of people’s existence.

Weaponising refugees dehumanises people who are already marginalised and often traumatised, while the occasional political jab at private schooling is aimed at a system of privilege that sits at the very top of society. One is punching down at those with the least power; the other is – at worst – a clumsy critique of those with the most.

That’s the difference between systematic scapegoating and brief political point-scoring. Equating the two is false, and it only minimises how dangerous the refugee scapegoating really is.

I doubt it, he is probably living his best life.

That’s because Labour won the election in the main because they weren’t the Tories. And since getting in, they haven’t shown the electorate how they aren’t the Tories. So you can see why disillusionment has set in pretty quickly.

The Conservatives screwed things up.
Labour took this base of incompetence, and made it worse.

Non of them are listening.

How else are the people of the UK (well, it’s mostly the English) supposed to get them to listen?

People are voting Reform because they feel unheard, and it’s now at boiling point.

I’ve never voted Reform, nor do I want to, but I will vote for them if Labour don’t do something drastic to address the concerns of Brits.

They aren’t listening and what’s more they hold the British public in utter contempt.

Just when you think it couldn’t get any worse…..

Edited to add, there is no way Farage would allow this. His soul purpose is to gain power and attention by any means.

That’s just your bias, children are vulnerable.I don’t see the difference between an education minster referring to 6 year olds as ‘not ours’ and scapegoating them as stealing resources from ‘ours’ or Nigel Farrage scapegoating refugees as stealing our resources.

Of course. Although they do still appear to have their ‘loyal’ voters who continue to vote for them no matter what. I’ve never known a party lose so much popularity in such a short space of time.

weaponising one group of humans against another to make people feel powerful

I think you’re talking about Reform with this, but this could equally apply to Labour and their rhetoric towards children at non state schools and their parents.

I have read it all now! 😆😆😆

How else are the people of the UK (well, it’s mostly the English) supposed to get them to listen?

People are voting Reform because they feel unheard, and it’s now at boiling point.

What are governments not listening about? The boats?

The only time you will start to ‘see’ anything drastic, (mostly in the form of just words) will be close to election time in 2029 when they all of a sudden start spouting stuff that people want to hear again.

Its literally just been explained to you in clear and plain terms

Being concerned about the privilege of private school pupils is not the same as the decades-long, systemic scapegoating of refugees as criminals, invaders, or parasites. Refugees have been consistently dehumanised in front pages, speeches, and rallies, blamed for housing shortages, NHS waiting lists, even crime waves. That kind of rhetoric has led directly to violence in the streets and harassment outside hotels.

Private school children, by contrast, are not being hunted down in the tabloids as a “threat.” They’re not being attacked outside their homes. They’re not banned from working, or locked in hotels for years while the government deliberately drags its heels. A politician pointing out inequality in education might be clumsy, but it’s a policy argument about resources, not a wholesale demonisation of people’s right to exist.

Equating the two isn’t just bias, it’s minimising the very real danger of scapegoating refugees. One is a critique of privilege. The other is a campaign of sustained dehumanisation against some of the most vulnerable people on earth. If you think those two things are equal, you’ve just proved the point about Reform weaponising ignorance.

Look at the comments on here. They are not listening about pretty much everything.

No, because those people's opinions who don't vote are closed so the opinions of the people open to vote takes precedence in the vote share. Also, just because people are hypothetically perhaps forced to vote doesn't mean it'll deliver the idealistic result that others crave.

Are you suggesting that it’s impossible for the UK, as a sovereign nation, to have its own human rights legislation? That we are somehow an appendage of Europe and can only function via their legislation.

There are certainly consequences to leaving the ECHR but your post is misleading.

Even old Labourites - Jack Straw and David Blunkett - have recently been advising Labour to ‘decouple’ from the ECHR.

You’ve been manipulated to view a group of children as ‘other’ and to blame for something you are not happy about in your life, it’s basic stuff.

There is only so long Labour can blame the shit show they inherited. There comes a point where patience runs out. I will not vote reform but I can see why they are gaining in popularity. The tories messed things up, Labour continue to mess things up - might as well let someone new have a try. It will be a complete disaster and I just hope Labour can start to show a shred of competence.

Yep, Labour heavyweights Jack Straw + David Blunkett etc now want to "de couple from ECHR"??
Where Reform go, Labour follow

All the criticism of Farage saying he would withdraw UK from ECHR and there was much pearl clutching about "giving away our rights". Haven't heard a peep from those posters about the comments from Straw and Blunkett.....

Nobody is blaming children for anything. Nobody is othering them. Barely anybody is affected by the school thing.

..and I just explained it back to you, your reply is basically yeah but it’s different as these children are to blame and refugees aren’t. You need to think it through.

I suspect if they win they will crash and burn within weeks. Their policies are totally unworkable and potentially disastrous. The economy will crash, public services will fall apart, and the first time they deport a child who ends up being tortured and killed public opinion will turn against them.

Remember the last European elections in the UK? Lib Dem’s came 2nd there, and the local elections round the same time they smashed it. Didn’t win the next GE though

Er actually quite a few posters on MN have "othered" children based only on which school they go to eg calling them twats and cunts, saying the schools drain resources from state schools and those children are entitled etc. You may not have seen it but trust me it's happened.
The tone was set by Phillipson and Labour.

Mostly because Straw and Blunkett have nothing to do with the government.

They literally do this all the time. Shift the blame. And this is what I mean by question dodging. “The tories left us with a 22 billion black hole” is their answer to everything in parliament. No matter what question they’re asked, they always give the same answer. Now it’s all of a sudden the 22 billion pound black hole has turned into a 50 billion black hole. And that’s since they got in! Yet they are still shifting the blame to anybody but themselves!