To be starting to worry that Reform will win next GE?

[TortoiseMantle]

The polls have shown a consistent lead. Is there any realistic chance of Reform actually winning the next election?

I vote Labour, but it’s hard to see how they’ve managed to throw away such a lead in just a year, and it’s hard to see how their polling improves. The Tories maybe have more opportunity for improving, but we’re going to see a Reform government, aren’t we? Nigel Farage is going to be our next PM.

I hear this a lot and I don’t think Reform running councils into the ground will make any difference to the electorate whatsoever. They’ll just blame their failures on the government.

They’re not the most successful political party in the world. They imploded. Yes, the reason people wanted them out was their unpopularity and that was achieved by voting for the candidate in each constituency most likely to beat them. That’s called tactical voting.

Don’t be ridiculous. They can’t blame their failure on the government. They were elected to run several county councils, there’s no hiding place. If they screw it up the spotlight is firmly on them - and they’ve got off to a shocking start.

You must be right.

No need to worry about anything at all then.

sweet.

That’s just… voting.

They are definitely one of the contenders. They have held power for 2/3 of the past 350 years. If that’s not successful I don’t know what is.

It’s not ridiculous. It would be the easiest thing in the world.

Tell the electorate that the Government isn’t providing them with enough money. Tell them the law means they can’t do X, Y and Z. Tell them that the red tape and bureaucracy is holding them back and they can only do what they want to do if they get their hands on the controls of government.

It’s easy and people will lap it up.

That’s not just voting. It was a concerted campaign to get them out. There were websites people consulted in their thousands to find out which candidate was best placed to beat the Tory. People voted for parties they didn’t believe in to get them out.

The party was founded in 1834 so they certainly haven’t held power for most of 350 years!

That wouldn’t wash. People aren’t as stupid as you seem to think. A Reform council that fucks it up will be asked by voters why they managed to make such a mess in contrast to the party they took over from.

Why did tactical voting work in 2024 but not in 2019, 2017, 2015 or 2010?

The Conservative Party was founded in 1834 but it is the direct successor of the Tories which is quite a bit older. They are one and the same.

I hope you’re right but given that people are taken in by what Reform alright spouts despite the majority of it being nonsense I am not at all convinced.

I think Reform will reach a ceiling of actual support, not just people saying that they "would" vote for them.

However, Labour seem to be doing really badly and a party that's performed as dreadfully as the Conservatives in an election can also be expected to lose the next one while they re-group. It also seems like Kemi Badenoch isn't sharp enough to attack the government effectively and she's the wrong leader for opposition.

My guess is that Badenoch will be ditched in another 18 months or so and the Conservatives will rally under a new leader. In a sense, Reform are doing their work for them because a lot of Tories want to move to more anti-immigration and nationalist positions and if Reform's policies look like vote-winners, they will copy them.

I am, yes.

What I worry about is people like Farage easing the country further towards the far right, and emboldening the extreme right. And I'm center-right, before you call me a lefty snowflake or woke or whatever 😅

Are you going to have a crack at explaining how they'd win a FPTP GE?

I don't need to because you have alluded that it's impossible.

Therefore I'm not going to think about it again.

Nightynight.

Because the last election was the first time it was employed. And you really need to do some research on political history, there were no Tories before 1834.

I agree. I am astounded the Tories haven’t acted sooner.

I also think Labour needs to look at its leadership if it wants to win again. I like and respect Keir Starmer and voted for him to be leader, but he is clearly disliked by the public. But then, who’d replace him?

Are you going to have a crack at explaining how they'd win a FPTP GE?

Apparently by winning 377 seats, although this is from a couple of months ago and Reform have added a few points since then (and Labour dropped) so might be a bit higher now.

https://www.harboroughmail.co.uk/community/new-mrp-poll-reveals-reform-uk-is-set-to-win-377-seats-in-the-next-general-election-5194594

They would win by winning the most votes in the most constituencies. Same as how any party wins an election.

They have already won FPTP elections. I don’t know why you think FPTP would stop them. They’re not at 12%, they’re at 30%+.

Now. Plenty of time to fuck it up.

They will win, and Labour will only have themselves to blame for it. Starmer is one of the worst PMs I think we've ever had and let's face it the bar really isn't high in that respect.

They are the bookies favourites and I trust the bookmakers a lot more than the polls as bookies have a lot of money riding on being correct. Labour need to sort themselves out.

No, this just is not right. Tactical voting, those website etc., were used in all of those elections.

No, there was no Conservative Party before 1834. There have been Tories since the late 1600s. The Conservatives were born of the Tories.

Oh come on. After Johnson and Truss?

But what if they don’t?

I wouldn't be suprised if they won. I feel like Labour hasnt really done anything to attract more votes.

Then Reform wins. 🤷‍♀️