To be starting to worry that Reform will win next GE?

[TortoiseMantle]

The polls have shown a consistent lead. Is there any realistic chance of Reform actually winning the next election?

I vote Labour, but it’s hard to see how they’ve managed to throw away such a lead in just a year, and it’s hard to see how their polling improves. The Tories maybe have more opportunity for improving, but we’re going to see a Reform government, aren’t we? Nigel Farage is going to be our next PM.

But parents have faced cuts as I said. Child poverty is increasing not decreasing.

I don't think the majority of MNs want to see the disabled suffer.

True. But Labour are destroying it very quickly.

The problem is that people voting Reform don’t care about candidates or policies. They’re just voting because they’re angry and it’s going to end with them winning,
.

I don’t think its that people want to see disabled people suffer. I think it’s more the general lack of understanding as to how important disability benefits are to those who rely on them to help with the cost of disability. I also think it’s important to note that there are no plans to cut anything but PIP, which is a benefit for working age disabled people. Attendance allowance for the over 66’s and child disability living allowance, are not changing. Not quite sure what that says about the focus but it certainly indicates it’s more of a political choice.

😳

Glad I’m not the only one. 🤣

People arnt policy's they dont understand them they see the headline and think its the bottom line

Yes it’s very likely Reform will be the next Government OP. The odds are 6/5

They would be utterly dreadful, and use Trump as a guide, despite pretending otherwise. Just imagine that. Treating us all like idiots, and demonising any group of workers who had the education to challenge the lies. Gunning for the judiciary, who could potentially undo illegal decisions. Hell.

Local elections have notoriously low voter turnout so it’s much easier for swings from one party to another to happen. Overall voter turnout for the May 2025 local elections was 34.3% compared to 59.7% for the 2024 General Election.

Its also generally acknowledged that many voters treat local elections as a chance to register a protest vote and not necessarily as an indicator of how they would vote in a GE.

These posts are just designed to normalise the idea, to give them more of a chance to get in. They had such a small proportion of the vote, and the way our voting system works, there is no way they would get in. They would have to have such a high proportion of the vote. Look up the stats properly and stop scare mongering.

There are several years to go yet, a very long time in politics.

I'm no Reform voter (they swept the local council board here, nothing to do with me, and are already fucking up) but I'm not at all surprised that they're making gains. I don't think the current Left actually cares about beating them as much as it cares about masturbatory performance to feel virtuous and superior. Does it actually give a sun blushed shit about working class people these days?

They’re going to have to be saying that in 2029. We all know how much can happen in four years.

4 years is a long time.
Trump won't be power by then.
This will change the dynamics.
My prediction is hung parliament.

Some of the councils have never swung before and did this time. I think it is naive to think the voters who come out for a general will all vote Labour and Tory and not Reform. We are sleepwalking into a far right government by trying to convince ourselves something will stop it.

They are over 30% in the polls. That is enough.

This ‘it can’t happen’ denial of the situation is what is going to hand them the keys to number 10.

4 years is a long time in politics, look at how many PM's the Conservatives got through in that time !

It may be Vance by then, will that change it.

Presumably you thought it was naive to think that there would be tactical voting last year to get the Tories out? Yet that’s what happened and it decimated the Tory party and gave the LibDems over 70 seats. Why would you not think that similar tactical voting would be used again in 2029 with the aim of keeping Reform out?

By 2029 Reform will have had a full term of running a number of councils and will be judged on a track record for the very first time. Given their start that’s not going to be impressive after four years.

The hope I cling to is that Trump gets away with what he does because he's Trump and Vance could not achieve the same.

Reform has 4 years to demonstrate how truly awful they are at running councils, which might give people pause. The performance of my Green council is definitely.making me rethink my vote.

True. But the tories also served 3 terms in government. I can’t see this current one serving more than one term. They’ve managed to piss so many people off in their first 12 months. As I said on this thread before, the tories were never as unpopular as this current government in such a short space of time, otherwise they wouldn’t have got past their first term. A lot can happen in 4 years yes, but I think the damage this current government have done and the fact they are now hated by so many people is going to be extremely difficult, if not impossible to reverse.

Let’s hope so

Of course but to answer OPs question, yes there is a realistic chance.

As I said on this thread before, the tories were never as unpopular as this current government in such a short space of time, otherwise they wouldn’t have got past their first term.

Thatcher was very unpopular after a year into her first term in 1981.

the public was often significantly less positive about Margaret Thatcher between general elections, with both her and her party experiencing some of the worst periods of significant unpopularity between elections. Support for the Conservative Party dipped as low as 23% between 1979 and 1983, and to 24% between 1983 and 1987. The percentage of people satisfied with Thatcher’s own performance as prime minister was similarly in the low twenties during the same periods.

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/5759-margaret-thatcher-and-public-opinion

I don’t think tactical voting kept the Tories out. The massive unpopularity of the Tories kept the Tories out. If tactical voting kept them out they wouldn’t be the most successful political party in the world.