To be starting to worry that Reform will win next GE?

[TortoiseMantle]

The polls have shown a consistent lead. Is there any realistic chance of Reform actually winning the next election?

I vote Labour, but it’s hard to see how they’ve managed to throw away such a lead in just a year, and it’s hard to see how their polling improves. The Tories maybe have more opportunity for improving, but we’re going to see a Reform government, aren’t we? Nigel Farage is going to be our next PM.

yes I think you’re correct. I think it was 1997 - 2010 so they must have served a shorter term at some point.

@blueclip why policies of Reform do you think are honest?

Every party that gets into power gets slagged off and picked to death.
As Covid pointed out for everyone keeping safe there was someone else with an anti vaccine message.
Theres little chance that the country will turn into rabid right wing loons in reality. We thrive on arguing but being civil by nature.

I don't think 16 year olds will necessarily vote Labour. My 16 year old niece has just joined the young conservatives .
I think Reform and the conservatives (with Robert Jenrick as leader) will form a pact and take out of the ECHR.
And will the next election.
At least I hope so. This shower in power now are not interested in listening to the people.

The elections were 97, 01 and 05.

Sure but my point was more around sometimes a population can do something unexpected if enough rhetoric is generated.

It’s very different in terms of US politic to the UK. There is, has been and only ever has been two parties in the US (yes I am aware of Green Party and Libertarians). Ross Perot got closest as an Independant..

I agree that Farage ‘seems’ more populr that he is but having good friends on the Kentish coast they have a Reform council and are worried about the rhetoric and Reform thinking where they are.

Yes I remember now, I stand corrected. Still, even they didn’t decline in popularity as fast as this current government. And they were pretty unpopular by the end of their 3rd term

What I think people aren’t going to like if Reform get in (well actually reform voters won’t like) is Farahe himself stood up and said he’d allow immigration in small numbers where it’s needed.

We’ve already reduced overall immigration under Labour, they’ve already processed more asylum seekers than the Tory’s did at the end of their stint and deported more than they did.

Farage will not stop immigration because we need it for a start. Especially now in 4 years time we’ll have lower birth rate than death rate.

About the same time he wants to come into power.

He can’t deliver what the far right want. Not if he wants to actually have the country he apparently so dearly loves.

I think they’ll probably win.

then Reform will find out that legally their hands are tied for deporting everyone in the ICE style raids they dream of.

they have no experience and are likely to stuff the economy up even more.

Farage apparently wants to sell the nhs off so we will see that dismantled. Along with dismantling of employee rights.

I’m sure it will all be wonderful. I look forward to the shit show! It’s like turkeys voting for Christmas.

I said to a friend the other day I may have to use my vote tactically at the next GE and vote Tory for the first time ever to try and keep Reform out!

What are you talking about? He said he wants to stop ILLEGAL migration. He is actually all for LEGAL migration in small numbers is what he’s said. I have not met a single reform supporter who has an issue with legal migration that we actually DO need. I’m pretty sure reform hasn’t declined in popularity for making that point. I’m not sure where you think he wants to stop ALL migration. I’m not sure you understand the difference between illegal and legal migration from what you have just said.

Nobody, that’s the problem. Labour are sadly a shit show. I couldn’t even tell you who the leader of the Tories is these days 🤷‍♀️. But last time I looked all the people who were running for the Tory leadership were a bunch of twats. I live in hope that both parties get some better leadership.

was thinking the other day it’s a shame that people like Andy Burnham and Rory Stewart are no longer MPs.

He wants to stop asylum seekers - which are not illegal immigrants.

Before you go on a rant using capital matters it’s usually a good idea to check you know what you’re talking
about first

Anyone processed and found
not to have the right to remain
should be deported as they are being.

An immigrant with a visa and a right to work is an immigrant however they got here.

Maybe he’ll actually be the one to put in safe routes then - but we all know that not happen because he only wants the right type of immigrant here and we all know what he means by that!

You might need Reform. I certainly don't. Erosion of our rights, the organisation of the NHS, and impossible to fulfil promises on immigration.

How do you stop wokery? Shoot everyone who sounds woke?

Andy Burnham isn’t an MP. I think it was foolish to expect Labour to move the dial on much in such a short time. The Tories spent 14 years trashing the economy. I think they’ve done some good things & made some mistakes. I’d like them to fix their comms urgently. They’re too reactive & not good enough at blowing their own trumpets.

Their comms aren't the issue!

"Oh of we fix the comms then everything will be great"? No, it's their policies which are shit PLUS they've got shit comms

Andy Burnham would have more sense than to go back to Westminster. I think he’s quite happy in Manchester.

Reform will never win a general election. They're not a proper political party, and Farage has no interest in running a constituency, let alone a country.

They tell the dim and disenfranchised what they want to hear and make them promises they'll never have to keep.

They'll never beat FPTP, half the people cheerleading for them won't actually vote because they think the whole thing's rigged and the world is run by the WEF or whoever this week's boogyman is and they'll collapse and come back as something else for the next one.

I genuinely pity the people who fall for it.

Ummm maybe you should look at Keir Starmer’s own facebook page where HE himself calls them illegal immigrants! 😂 So I’d go and take a look at what he (the man who currently runs the country) is saying on his social media before claiming they’re ’not illegal. I’d be taking more notice of the government as to what is classed as legal and not legal over some random on mumsnet.

An immigrant with a visa does in fact have the right to work here! Nothing new. And like I said, that’s NOT who reform are talking about. What’s that got to do with those in hotels without the right to work here because they don’t have a visa? Total non argument by you!

So before you go on a rant I suggest you also check you know what you’re actually talking about. Especially the rubbish you spout about claiming reform will stop all migrants including legal ones 😂

Please explain how a 'party' with the size and means of Reform will win a general election under the FPTP system.

A load of scruffs rioting, half of whom don't vote, isn't the answer btw.

To those thinking of voting for Reform, ask yourself if the likes of Nigel Farage and Richard Tice really represent you? When the shit hits the fan, they’ll disappear to Dubai and the like, leaving the economy and NHS in tatters.
On the plus side, their supporters will expect them to deliver on their promises fairly instantly and when it all proves to be hot air, they’ll get booted out come the next election.

Monty python eat your heart out.

Yes I noticed that on the Facebook page, Starmer does indeed call them illegal.

It will be interesting to see how Reform will do in the councils they were voted in. I suspect they will demonstrate a total lack of understanding of how to run even a local level government.

I honestly hope this country has more sense then voting this shit show in. They are useless fucking idiots, not even proper politicians. Funny when you realise that Tories were shit but at least they were not some fucking useless racist twats off the street...