To be starting to worry that Reform will win next GE?

[TortoiseMantle]

The polls have shown a consistent lead. Is there any realistic chance of Reform actually winning the next election?

I vote Labour, but it’s hard to see how they’ve managed to throw away such a lead in just a year, and it’s hard to see how their polling improves. The Tories maybe have more opportunity for improving, but we’re going to see a Reform government, aren’t we? Nigel Farage is going to be our next PM.

I think they might well win. I think maybe they need to so the reform voters can see the reality of their policies if they are in government!
Shame that the rest of us will have to suffer though.

Part of me thinks Reform don’t want to win - too much responsibility, too much work - but they really like being in opposition. Plus Farage loves going to the US on personal projects and raising his profile. Remember Gove and Johnson the day after the referendum? They looked gutted as it looked like they’d have to actually deal with it. I think it would be like that. I think if they were elected they’d get found out as things would not get better. The sums don’t seem to add up to me. The question might be how many (protest?) Reform votes will there be.

How have the Reform MPs done in their constituencies? Are they good MPs? What are the Reform council areas like?

'starting' to worry?

Hasn't this been evident since the last election?

I'm almost certain they will win the next general election. Last summer's riots and this year's riots and flags have galvanised support for reform that will be almost impossible to undo.

Well they're not alone there are they!!

I would never say "wake up, he'll never get in"....that's wishful thinking.
Everyone needs to wake up to the fact there is a possibility that he could get in.

Labour pretty much only got in as people were fed up with the Tory party, time for change, now a year in how many of those same voters want them out.
Labour really aren't doing much to keep that position.

Equally unless you live in and around where the migrants are placed and see their movements, you pretty much truly only see what TV want you to see.

What would Farage be going on about if the boat crossings stopped, the back log of asylum claims was cleared and the hotels emptied? I am of the belief that he needs the boat crossings to maintain his high media profile and maximise his chance of power. He will be really milking the latest decision about the hotel in Epping and I think he would be all for a bit of civil unrest

Do you seriously think that the polls five years ago predicted a Labour majority in 2024? Most commentators said it would take Labour more than one term to stand a chance, let alone win a big majority.

Let’s see where we are in four years - probably with Reform having failed to deliver on their big claims in the councils they are running.

Reform will never find suitable candidates to stand in all the seats!
They have lost over 11 Counsellors already . And this week they have selected a dead woman to stand as Croydon Mayor!
https://insidecroydon.com/2025/08/27/farage-party-picked-a-dead-woman-to-run-for-croydon-mayor/

Come on. The boats didn’t suddenly appear in the last few years. People have always tried to reach the UK — for decades it was mostly via lorries and ferries. When ports tightened and safe routes were slashed, smugglers switched tactics to dinghies. Same issue, different method.

It’s only been turned into the issue because Farage keeps telling you those people are “taking from you.” They aren’t. The numbers are tiny compared to overall migration (most visas are legal work/study that the UK itself issues). Stopping boats won’t fix the NHS, housing or wages; funding, building and planning do.

“Farage will stop the boats”? With what, exactly? Push-backs break maritime law and our own rescue obligations. The practical fixes are boring: safe routes, fast decisions, and proper return agreements with our neighbours — the very cooperation Brexit torched. Farage sold Brexit as more money, less red tape, lower bills, controlled borders. What did we get? Higher costs, more red tape for business, staff shortages, and no functioning returns deal. Whether or not he held office is irrelevant — he sold it to you as the thing that would make life better. It didn’t.

Trump and Orbán aren’t meaningful comparisons. The US never “stopped” crossings under Trump, and Hungary’s land borders and tactics don’t map to a sea channel with lifesaving duties.

And this idea there’ll be “massive riots” if he doesn’t deliver? That’s not democracy, that’s blackmail. Leaders who need a permanent crisis aren’t trying to solve it — they’re trying to use it.

Fool you once, shame on him. Let him fool you again — that’s on you.

This. Loud minority love farage, majority of people don't and I doubt even those on the fence would actually want to chance him with a whole government so they won't get in but God will we have to hear about their chances for the next 4 yrs 🙄🙄

What Reform policies do you like apart from stoping the small boats?

My bet is a hung parliament.

Reform may have some seats and someone may try a coalition with them.

But given the way the country feels about migration, noone can vote for a party with open doors, no matter how much they might like the other policies (Green, Liberal). Labour dont appear to have pleased anyone, despite having enough of a majority to make serious change, and Tories have had a decade and no matter what anyone thinks of their politics, it was all personal sleaze at the end.

I can't vote for the current situation, open doors or sleaze. Many will be in the same boat.

So it's either reform, a tactical Not Reform vote or nothing.

I’m not disputing that migrants arriving in boats isn’t a problem, but the rhetoric from Farage et al about the country being overrun is pure xenophobia and nothing else.

The fact is that the number of migrants arriving by boat is likely to be around the 40,000 mark this year. That’s about 0.15% of the UK population. Not exactly ravaging hoards is it? We take in (per head of population) far fewer asylum seekers than other European countries.

According to stats, in 2024 we took in the 5th largest number of asylum seekers in Europe (108,000) but per head of population we were actually 17th on the list. You could in fact argue we are not doing our bit!

Now of course the way that asylum seekers are dealt with in terms of who is given leave to remain needs prioritising - women and children prioritised for example - and I don’t know how we start to implement these things, but please let’s stop trying to pretend that we are under siege!

The issue is that the decline in support for Labour has happened far faster than the decline in support for the tories did. There has been a serious massive decline of support for Labour within their first 6 months, now a year on and they’ve managed to piss off a few more people. I can’t remember the tories being this unpopular after their first year. In fact they went on to serve 3 terms. I doubt that will happen with this current government, they have to do something incredibly drastic for that to happen. I remember how popular Labour was when Tony Blair won the election after the tories. His popularity slowly demised but over a much longer period of time. That Labour government served 2 terms. By the end of the 2nd term Gordon Brown was in power and people had had enough of them again and voted in David Cameron. It does show that when people have had enough, they really have had enough. I’ve never seen a government be so unpopular within their first year as I have with this one.

Apparently neither do Labour or the tories - let's face it they can't actually do worse at this point.

Money come from pensioners as they pay more tax than those working , so basically we are paying more in than taking out

I am clued up. I am a Labour member and politician.

Why would being clued up mean I want Reform to do well?

Money come from pensioners as they pay more tax than those working , so basically we are paying more in than taking out

@mintydoggyv what are you trying to say here?

It can't be that today's pensioners pay more tax than workers or that they take less out vs what they put into the system?

🤣🤣

That’s a bit of a misunderstanding of how the system works. Most pensioners don’t actually pay more tax than working people – in fact, once you retire you no longer pay National Insurance, and many pay little or no income tax if their pension is below the tax threshold.

The bulk of government revenue comes from working-age people – through income tax, National Insurance, and VAT. State pensions aren’t paid from an individual savings pot that someone has built up; they’re funded directly from the taxes collected from today’s workers. It’s what’s known as a pay-as-you-go system.

So while pensioners of course contribute through things like VAT on what they spend, the system really relies on the taxes of those currently in work to pay for pensions and welfare today, just as previous generations paid for their parents’ pensions.

I didn't vote Labour but I'm recently impressed with some quick NHS appointments for some family members that were predicted to take 12 months. However, I'm unimpressed by the lack of predicted growth in the economy and the employer NI increase which seemed madness. Really disappointed in them failing to tackle the welfare bill which is so important. I don't think Reform are fit to govern and their policies don't add up.

I hope they do win! I’d be more worried if they didn’t

Unlike Labour who have fielded the following dubious characters. Not to mention their anti corruption Minister resigning due to er corruption and the Homeless minister having to resign for.......?

The point I'm making is that Labour supporters are the last people who should be throwing stones at the calibre of any other councillors/MPs.

Yes, I thought Labour would be out of power for at least another term. Things can change. But it’s not usually the incumbent government which improves in the polls, and with the Tories polling even worse than Labour, it is difficult to see how Reform will lose its momentum.

Only one in five adults voted for Labour. That’s 80% of the electorate who did not. Add to that the people who did vote for Labour and are now pissed off with them - that leaves a really, really low % who actively want them. And a gigantic majority of people who are looking for someone else to vote for. I don’t always vote, I often think the choices are either bad or worse. My politics are centre in nature and I’d like to see cross party collaboration to actually to fix our problems. Both Labour and Conservative are simply shite. And despite wanting a centre party, I will vote reform if it gets Labour out. Because I hate them and their dishonest, divisive policies and their idiotic adherence to an ideology that doesn’t actually function in practice. I’ve personally seen 3 families emigrate this year. Those are NHS workers, tradespeople and business owners. All massively contributing financially and otherwise. And all thoroughly pissed off. A huge loss to the UK.

Labour served three terms last time.