To be starting to worry that Reform will win next GE?

[TortoiseMantle]

The polls have shown a consistent lead. Is there any realistic chance of Reform actually winning the next election?

I vote Labour, but it’s hard to see how they’ve managed to throw away such a lead in just a year, and it’s hard to see how their polling improves. The Tories maybe have more opportunity for improving, but we’re going to see a Reform government, aren’t we? Nigel Farage is going to be our next PM.

I think the whole system should be reformed to be fairer and more transparent, so that decisions on benefit awards are right first time. It costs an absolute fortune to the tax payer for disabled people to go to appeal to get a fair decision - which is what many of them have to do because the present standard of assessment and awards is severely lacking. If the system were reformed to be fairer to the claimant the cost of appeal could be wiped out significantly lowering the budget without the impact on genuinely disabled people that the present proposals mean.

Just because you stop supporting a need doesn’t mean that need disappears. Removing PIP and the associated carers allowance from genuinely disabled people by means of an arbitrary cut won’t save a penny. All that will happen is that the need and cost will be passed on to social care at vastly increased cost and severely reduced service levels in an already broken system. Is that what you want for the disabled people in the UK. Or would you prefer that they are all put back in the institutions of fifty odd years ago - again at vastly increased cost.

Ages away from an election, and the truth about Nigel hasn't come out yet.
Without him they are a busted flush.

That is the issue. The reform/Brexit fans are happy to say it's only been 9 years since the referendum and these things take time when asked about where the Brexit benefits Farage and co promised are. But they expected Labour to wake up the day after the general election and magic everything better. I'm from a mixed heritage family, have an ongoing health condition and have ND children. The thought of a reform government is very worrying.

Again… what could Farage do about Brexit if he wasn’t in power? Nobody blames the tories who WERE in government at the time. But everyone blames a person who was not in government. Go figure

I know you say you're worried OP, but you actually sound quite clued up and keen on Reform doing OK.

Well they certainly should not be put in 4* hotels near schools and parks.

I understand why healthy, bright, well off young men would like to come here, given they are incentivised with comfortable and free accommodation, health care and work opportunities, but sanctuary is for the fleeing and the oppressed, not the creme de la creme.

What about the Afghani girls for example? Why is it always strong young men not those in need? It is all very misogynistic.

Of course Farage will stop the boats and deport the migrants once he is voted in! If he doesn’t do it, he will face the wrath of all who voted for him and his party, and then there will be a massive riot!
Your post doesn’t make sense and is based on a twisted logic.

The boats are the only issue that keeps him in the headlines? It is a pretty MASSIVE issue! ..and someone has to tackle it.
If Trump can tackle that problem and Orban can keep out the migrants, so can Farage.

I didn’t say all disabilities are equal. But there is one system for assessing them and it’s not about financial resources. The system for assessment doesn’t consider the disability itself, but the effect on everyday life, so to that extent no, not all disabilities are considered equal. But what you have to remember is that no two people with the same disability will be affected in the same way. And you absolutely cannot compare something like autism with a physical disability because they affect the disabled person in completely different ways.

I hope not, but I think people have had enough. It’s going to be like Brexit all over again.

Predicting a GE result that’s 4 years away is like forecasting the weather for 6 months time. Absolutely no one has a clue as there are far far too many variables.

Sure, you can look at polls but that’ll realistically only tell you who’d win an election in the next few months at best.

Reform have already shown themselves to be far too unstable- and that’s just with a handful of MPs over a year or so. Many of the councillors have gone too, and loads more are proving to be as useful as a chocolate teapot- they just don’t do any work! And neither do most of their MPs…

I really hope you are right, @Slightyamusedandsilly - but the recent protests outside asylum hostels, and the graffiti-ing of England flags all over the place has demonstrated a very nasty streak in society, and I fear that Reform’s anti-immigrant policies will appeal to these charmers.

They are stupid enough to dismiss the news of his other policies - getting rid of the Old Age Pension, ending sick pay and moving to a US style healthcare system - all of which will harm the poorest in society - as fake news/fearmongering. By the time they realise it was all true, they will find granny is in poverty because she has no pension, and can’t afford her medication because no NHS, and they have lost their sick pay, it will be too late.

I think if Reform don't win it will be very close. The only thing keeping them out is first past the post. What exactly does Nigel Farage stand for? Anti immigration and yet all his wives and girlfriends are european, and his children speak German. It makes zero sense. He’s a narcissist and its a persona.

I do hope they won't win. If they do then it will be without my vote.

I'd love to see them wiped out, but that might not happen.

@HelpHedgehogsByFeedingThemCatBiscuits so where do we put them?

I don't disagree they should've be coming etc but they are here nonetheless so where do we put them?

OK, Labour elected a PM that had never been PM before. He did not have experience of running a country. Is that what you want me to say?
He had been a MP for a good while and was well established in the cabinet as the main opposition party.

I can see that you think 6 MPs is enough to create a party with experience. I don't. And you're right, there is nothing more to it really.

Yes they’ll win and they’ll win because they are the only ones that are discussing/addressing the main thing most people are concerned about which at present is the boats/immigration.

Labour only won to get the Tories out and there was no alternative.

This is the thing though, most people aren’t bothered about immigration in general it’s specifically the boats that is the problem.

You think the current incimbents are going to ban elections? what has led you to this conclusion or have I misunderstood ?

That's not true re PIP and higher earners.

if you earn £50k then you should be able to afford the lifestyle that people earning £50k afford.

If £10k of that is being used for car adaptions, wheelchair, aids, etc before you add house adaptions, specialist clothing etc (remember anything marketed for disability is automatically marked up). You need a bigger specialist type car for your wheelchair, aids etc. therefore higher insurance and fuel costs.
Then many with disabilities WFH so need specialist desks and mouses etc.

Then actually why should someone who earns more have a lower quality of life due to the cost of disability - that’s just luck of the draw.

They can barely keep control of their dysfunctional handful of bat-shit councillors and MPs, actually run a country? 🫣

Ah the "4 star hotels". Yes, that were failing businesses so taken over and are now used as hostels. They're not 4* anymore ...it's not private rooms and lounges and room service. Some of them are in poor repair with mould etc and crowded. Yes it's better than a tent in France or a camp in Syria but it's not luxury as Reform like to spin it. It's a really good example actually of how certain things can be presented in the perfect way to produce froth and outrage but are far from reality.

This is a non argument and has nothing to do with ‘experience’. You seem to be diverting from your original comment of ‘reform have no experience’. Also, Reform only surged in the polls after the general election regardless of how many MPs they have/ didn’t have at the general election. They have way more support. Not that it has anything to do with your comment about claiming they have no experience to run a country. You just seem to be going off at tangents rather and slightly changing the topic.

Anyway, back to the point of your original post.
So you’re ok for the Labour party to elect an inexperienced party leader but not another party and instead just write them off as ‘inexperienced’? Righty…O then!
Again, there is nothing more to it really!

Will it be worth losing the NHS, the state pension and sick pay, @Tangerinenets?

The difference between Trump and Farage is that Trump took over an existing party whereas Farage is trying (currently) to go his own way.

Based on the amount of coverage Farage/Reform gets you’d think they already had 50-odd MPs but they have just 4. Their policies are wishful thinking and have no basis in reality. If the other parties started calling them out on how they plan to fund everything and what their economic/education/health service plans actually are beyond “taking back control” then everyone would start to see them for the 3-ring circus they are.

Don’t buy into the narrative that Reform are popular across the country. When Farage gave his last speech, which was broadcast on the Reform YouTube channel, there were just 3,000-odd people tuning in live, most of which were probably journalists!

Which is a perfect example of Labour's failure in media and communication. It has allowed so much falsehood to perpetuate that people genuinely think that the few poor people arriving here to claim asylum are causing all of our country's ills! Instead of standing up and taking clearly about the failure of Brexit etc they are allowing these lies to be accepted as fact.