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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To be starting to worry that Reform will win next GE?

952 replies

TortoiseMantle · 29/08/2025 16:10

The polls have shown a consistent lead. Is there any realistic chance of Reform actually winning the next election?

I vote Labour, but it’s hard to see how they’ve managed to throw away such a lead in just a year, and it’s hard to see how their polling improves. The Tories maybe have more opportunity for improving, but we’re going to see a Reform government, aren’t we? Nigel Farage is going to be our next PM.

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Onthebusses · 29/08/2025 18:02

They just want to sell us to the US. It was a good run guys. See you on the other side.

Mumofnarnia · 29/08/2025 18:03

LarkspurLane · 29/08/2025 18:01

Reform have 6 MPs, Labour have over 400. In my view that's lacking in experience, you clearly have a different view.

The "clowns" who elected Labour are the party members, hundreds of thousands of people. Only one person elected Farage.

My point is the Labour Party still elected someone with zero experience in running a country to be leader of the Labour Party, knowing he would potentially win a general election. Doesn’t say a lot for the so-called ‘experienced’ members does it?

moondune · 29/08/2025 18:04

I still don’t know what Starmer’s vision is for the future. We need something to aim for, but I don’t think Starmer has a clue what his vision is, or how to run a country.

And Labour really, really need to start reading the room.

Rosscameasdoody · 29/08/2025 18:04

Julen7 · 29/08/2025 17:58

Haven’t the disability benefit cuts been pretty much abandoned?

Nope. They are still under review - a consultation paper closed in July. That was proposing a drastic overhaul of working age disability benefit - note, not attendance allowance for the over 66’s or child DLA, specifically PIP because it’s a working age benefit. And the four point rule will still be introduced from November 2026 for new claimants. Won’t save a penny. Will just take away autonomy from disabled people over their own care and force them to be reliant on an already broken and inadequate social care system, which is a lot more expensive. But you won’t hear of any of that because the government will be too busy congratulating itself on the savings made from the benefit budget at the expense of genuinely disabled people to be honest about the massive costs that will be passed on to social care.

PandoraSocks · 29/08/2025 18:04

LarkspurLane · 29/08/2025 18:01

Reform have 6 MPs, Labour have over 400. In my view that's lacking in experience, you clearly have a different view.

The "clowns" who elected Labour are the party members, hundreds of thousands of people. Only one person elected Farage.

They only have 4 now! Two are now independent. Lowe and the other one whose name escapes me. The one who beat up his girlfriend.

wonderstuff · 29/08/2025 18:05

TortoiseMantle · 29/08/2025 17:56

These council seats re not fickle. Many have been Labour or Tory since the creation of the councils.

Where I am it is always and has always been Tory, but the council will flip between Conservative and NOC, because the make up is different, the next constituency has gone Con to Lab last election but has been tight for years. I may well be wrong, but it would be incredible to go from such a small party to a majority in one election cycle, completely unprecedented. I think they could win seats and I think in the event of a hung parliament there may be a coalition, but I really don’t see them as a main party.

Absentmindedsmile · 29/08/2025 18:05

Julen7 · 29/08/2025 16:24

Just as there will be a big, coordinated campaign to keep Labour out I would imagine.

Ha ha yes for sure. Still wishful thinking helps Labour fans get by for the time being.

We don’t know what the situation will be in 4 years (daren’t even think about it tbh). But if it were to be next week I’d guess a Con/ Reform coalition or similar.

Mumofnarnia · 29/08/2025 18:06

labamba18 · 29/08/2025 18:01

So if Farage was in charge illegal immigration would be far lower you think? Genuine question but the way.

That’s not what I’m arguing. What I’m saying is people are blaming Farage for Brexit when he had no power to implement it! It was a Tory government who implemented it. How can you pin the blame on someone who had no power to implement something? The truth is… nobody knows if Farage would have done a better job or not.

sundayfundayclub · 29/08/2025 18:06

@Rosscameasdoody you said ordinary working person & again stop the rhetoric of "has worked hard for it all their lives". plenty have just got lucky.

It’s fine to say you think they should be means tested but where and how do you set the threshold ?

Hence why I said discussion is needed,

Tying to a benefit (pension credit) which is designed only to support those on the absolute bones of their arse is lazy and unfair.

It was likely the most efficient way.

I agree that the money needs to come from somewhere but the sick and the disabled - and to a certain extent the elderly and vulnerable - are at the front of the queue every single time it comes to cuts.

And the younger workers are on the front when it comes to tax hikes but plenty of working families have lost out due to cuts. One reason people aren't having dc because they can't afford it.

If the proposed cuts centred around cutting benefits for parents this would be a very different conversation and everyone here knows it.

Is the above a joke?!

You don't think parents have experienced cuts?! What cuts do you think they should be seeing

sundayfundayclub · 29/08/2025 18:08

@Rosscameasdoody exactly how much more of the welfare budget do you think should be going to disabled people & older people. And again where does the money come from?

HelpHedgehogsByFeedingThemCatBiscuits · 29/08/2025 18:09

labamba18 · 29/08/2025 17:45

I can’t work out if this is sarcastic or not 😂

But I don’t think I would. People trusted Farage with Brexit to limit illegal immigration- yet here we are. So can he really do it this time?

Farage wasn't even in government when Brexit was implemented. He played no part in any of the negotiations.

Anyway we haven't even had a proper Brexit as NI is still in the EU and we still endure all the red tape.

And how can we reduce immigration if politicians offer so many incentives - free hotels etc - to come to the UK? there was nothing about offering hordes of healthy fit young men free hotels when we voted in 2016. This is something the Tories and Labour dreamt up.

LarkspurLane · 29/08/2025 18:12

Mumofnarnia · 29/08/2025 18:03

My point is the Labour Party still elected someone with zero experience in running a country to be leader of the Labour Party, knowing he would potentially win a general election. Doesn’t say a lot for the so-called ‘experienced’ members does it?

Edited

I'm not a member of the Labour party but I could be. I would vote for the best person I could with the info I had.

Who from Reform would you place in the different government roles if they got in? Do you think Farage is the best person for PM or would you select someone else?

Jerrypicker · 29/08/2025 18:12

Slightyamusedandsilly · 29/08/2025 16:12

They're not going to win. All the bumf about Farage is just fluff. None of his policies are workable. Although to be fair, a Reform voter isn't able to offer a sensible analysis of the unworkable policies so...

Opinions and predictions like yours are more and more in the minority.

Mumofnarnia · 29/08/2025 18:15

LarkspurLane · 29/08/2025 18:12

I'm not a member of the Labour party but I could be. I would vote for the best person I could with the info I had.

Who from Reform would you place in the different government roles if they got in? Do you think Farage is the best person for PM or would you select someone else?

I’m not a reform voter so that question is irrelevant! What I’m saying is that you’re saying a party has no experience but seem in denial about the fact that Labour elected someone who also had no experience. Nothing more to it really.

Northquit · 29/08/2025 18:16

Labour have got four years to repair the damage.

They need to grow the economy.

They also need people to realise Angela Rayner isn't planning on having a main home in her constituency currently.
I hope her constituency remembers that when they come back o the election.

mintydoggyv · 29/08/2025 18:17

Reform are a one party , policy nope they won't get in , look at there county Council s not a clue at all

Trumptonagain · 29/08/2025 18:20

Only my opinion.

We have far to many MP's, Lords and who ever else manages to hang on in there.

I have no idea who will win, anythings possible, today's government proves that, but more people in our area are now taking note of Reform...it only takes a seed.

We must have billions somewhere, the old cheque book comes out when it suits.

No matter who's Prime minister once in the door they show their true colours, sod you jack pull the ladder up.

My question to all governments would be is there a blackout on all TV/radio that you see once you enter service and you see no screens.
Do you actually live in the same world as Joe Public.

I see you coming out to Chequers Estate as your body guards have made me slam my breaks on on a sixpence before.
Maybe behind your blacked out windows you're blindfolded too.

I really can't believe they don't see what's going on around them, and I mean everything.

Each and every government spend their term in office chipping away at an already sinking ship while harping on about the one before, fixing very little that will benefit this country.

I'm of an age where I'm beginning to think all governments that get in do so on the basis of 'let's 'ave a laugh and get what we can while we're here'@

Not there yet myself but, I'm also beginning to realise that apart from being handy at childcare the government sees pensioners as has beens..

As I say I'm not going to question anyones elses view...this is just a rant....IMO.

Rosscameasdoody · 29/08/2025 18:20

sundayfundayclub · 29/08/2025 17:55

@Rosscameasdoody there has to be a sensible discussion around disability. My parent is 100% disabled but as millionaires do they need AA? Should a child in a wheelchair get the same DLA as a child with autism?

I think that whether a millionare should be able to claim DLA or any other disability benefit is relative to the extent of their disability and how much of an impact/expense it has on their daily life. Someone who is significantly disabled and has the means to support the effects for a while shouldn’t be made to spend their money supporting their disability until they are on the bones of their arse before they are eligible for help - that’s counter productive and to a certain extent the argument of envy.

Means testing is the issue because traditionally the thresholds are set so low as to become a race to the bottom. The cost of disability varies, and the current system assesses, not according to financial need, but according to the effects of disability on the individual and their ability to carry out a serious of everyday personal care and mobility tasks. So a child in a wheelchair gets the same assessment as someone with autism and benefit is awarded accordingly. And that’s how it should be.

I’ve been a disability outreach worker for over twenty years and to date have never seen someone with autism awarded the same level of benefit for a wheelchair user when it comes to mobility issues, unless the autism is very severe and there are safety issues. I’ll also caveat that with the fact that just because you are a wheelchair user does not mean that your disability is automatically worse than a non wheelchair user. And I say that as a wheelchair user myself. It’s not the disability itself that counts, it’s the effect on everyday life.

sundayfundayclub · 29/08/2025 18:20

@HelpHedgehogsByFeedingThemCatBiscuits where should we put the illegal migrants whilst they are processed?

awkwardasfuck · 29/08/2025 18:21

If you think Farage will ever stop the boats, wake up—you’re being played. His entire career is built on immigrants. Without them, he is nothing. He doesn’t want the boats to stop, because then he’d lose the only issue that keeps him in the headlines. Farage doesn’t have solutions, policies, or vision—just scapegoats. Every ounce of his power depends on immigrants being here. Without them, he has no career, no cause, and no relevance. He is laughing at you, mocking you, and using your anger to keep himself in power—he will never stand for you.

sundayfundayclub · 29/08/2025 18:22

@Rosscameasdoody I don't think all disabilities are equal so we will have to agree to disagree.

Stormfox · 29/08/2025 18:23

Bagsintheboot · 29/08/2025 16:20

I have no idea who will win the next general election and neither does anyone else.

Four years is a long time in politics and trying to predict the next result based on events today is a fools errand.

Maybe Reform will win. But they'd have to sustain this momentum for four whole years and also find a sufficient number of MPs and win enough constituencies to beat the FPTT system.

Not impossible certainly. Likely? My personal opinion is not given their levels of infighting and turnover. Regardless of their populist wave at the moment, I don't think they have the direction or coordination to truly organise themselves - at the moment. As I said, four years is a long time in politics.

Edited

You totally miss the mood of most people.

Reform aren’t popular because of what they say or do, they are popular because they are an alternative to the established parties who most people have had enough of.

They could sit back and say nothing and still win easily.

It is one of the weaknesses of the FPTP system that we invariably end up with people voting against the parties they don’t like rather than for anyone they do like. That’s pretty much how Labour got in last time and is how Reform will win easily in 2029 of Labour lasts that long.

The next GE after 2029 will be the really interesting one.

sundayfundayclub · 29/08/2025 18:24

@Rosscameasdoody I'm intrigued as to what cuts you don't think families have experienced and what ones they should be subject to?

LandRites · 29/08/2025 18:25

The issue for me is why Labour haven't done so much better to bring people they need to represent along with them. They had long enough in opposition to learn the lessons of Corbyn's unpopularity and the many mistakes made by the Conservatives failed leaders.

They should have been alerted by the Brexit vote and the popular response to the 'trans' and similar narrow obsessions that they were losing their connections with ordinary workers. People had clearly had enough of the Tories and I bet most people couldn't tell you what the LibGreenEtcs stood for. They gave Labour a very decent majority and mandate, even in Scotland they came back from the dead.

But almost immediately, Labour began losing people's trust with some tone-deaf flagship policies (winter fuel, farmers) and when they made belated noises about illegal immigration and rowed back on some of the metropolitan culture wars they looked like disapproving schoolteachers reluctantly allowing the kids to play conkers at break. Starmer gives the impression of being a leader who will change his direction to appease threats from inside his own party or from what his researchers tell him various bits of the electorate are thinking.

I live in what was once a northern Labour heartland, a large, enterprising market town near a large city which was red practically from the beginning of Labour. After the Brexit and Boris years, my town mostly voted - not overwhelmingly, but decisively - for Labour again at the last election. Locals in person and on social media now constantly criticise Labour's economic and social policies and Labour is no nearer to a rapport with these constituents than they were in their wilderness years. Labour no longer represent the working people of my town. I would add that the town is not uniformly white, and the longstanding south Asian community don't like Labour any better than anyone else.

Labour politicians come from too narrow a political, social and regional class. They don't seem to want the voters they actually have, maybe they want fantasy voters conjoured up from the pages of the Guardian. I think the broad political instinct where I live is socially conservative, old moderate Labour, old Liberal party. But those parties no longer exist.

People round here respect the idea of their country - not uncritically - hard work and community. They are small business owners, government office workers, farmers, hairdressers, publicans, nurses, tradies, drivers, pharmacists, teachers, IT bods, forces families, market-stall holders, cleaners, retirees in bungalows, dog-walkers and multigenerational restauranteurs. They're recyclers who look after the environment, grateful for state benefits where needed, for local parks, the local hospital and council carers. Previous generations of their families knew harder times. They are not fools or uneducated, regardless of whether they went to yooni.

Now we've got Reform councillors and St. George crosses painted on the roundabouts. Will they give Farage a go?What astonishes me is how quickly Labour lost them.

KateBAnd3 · 29/08/2025 18:25

Mumofnarnia · 29/08/2025 18:06

That’s not what I’m arguing. What I’m saying is people are blaming Farage for Brexit when he had no power to implement it! It was a Tory government who implemented it. How can you pin the blame on someone who had no power to implement something? The truth is… nobody knows if Farage would have done a better job or not.

The Tories might have implemented it (badly), but Farage was the architect of Brexit. He forced the issue, fronted the campaign (making outlandish claims all along the way) and based his entire political career around it. To trust him now is utterly absurd.