In 4 years, 2029, UK deaths will exceed births!

[TheMintCritic]

Just came across this and thought it was wild… according to the ONS, by 2029 the number of deaths in the UK is expected to outnumber the number of births for the first time in decades.

• Our fertility rate is only about 1.5 kids per woman, well below replacement.
• Meanwhile, the population is ageing — all those baby boomers are moving into their 70s and 80s.
• The result? The natural population growth turns negative, meaning any population increase will rely entirely on immigration.

It’s crazy to think that in just 4 years, births won’t even keep up with deaths. Makes you wonder what that’ll mean for schools, NHS, pensions, and housing.

Our traditional economic growth model has always been heavily dependent on exploiting developing countries.

The problem we have is that politics really does require long term solutions, like 20-50 year solutions for things like pensions, old age care etc to allow people to save and prepare for it.

But our politicians only work on 4 year cycles so they can get elected and the temptation is to say “we can fix it and it won’t cost you more” to get elected and people fall for the populist policies of Reform whereas we do need people to face the reality that these things need sacrifice and preparation.

And then when it can’t be fixed quickly, people just get more and more dissatisfied with politics and then fall for the first one to sell them a snake oil cure that THEY are the ones to fix the problems.

How will we feed all these bodies? The vast areas of fields and woodlands, now have housing on them, where will we grow our food?

It's a hole we can't dog ourselves out of in my opinion. We should have been preparing for the aging boom since they were born. It's too late now.
Schools are already moving towards closure. My DCs school has gone from 3 to single form entry in the last decade. The 2 neighboring schools are heading the same way. I'm sure they'll be amalgamated at some point.
The real shit show will start once gen x and millenials get old, and they don't have the assets that the boomers have and we're still not planning for it!

Yes, and mostly young adults of working age, who this country didn't have to pay for while they were young dependents.

UK deaths already exceed births, don't they?
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn0ezy14rj8o

@Digdongdoo agree with you

Most boomers are in their 60s/70s now so things may be difficult for a couple decades with so many older people but eventually they will pass away and things will rebalance.

So what happens during those decades? Continue as we are? Borrow more money?

Mass immigration to solve a temporary problem like people always say on these threads is a terrible idea

It might be terrible but we have a capitalist model so immigration is the only option. What do people think happens without immigration?

I have 6 children and have spent years having it thrown at me that I’m selfish for pretty much destroying the planet single handedly- despite never going on an aeroplane and living in a pretty environmentally friendly way.
I was a sahm until my youngest started reception - by choice and necessity. Properly parenting kids is hard! We made lots of sacrifices to be able to do this - again by choice.
Now I’m a teacher - if some parents have fewer (or no) children it would be a good thing!
Fewer children being ignored, not having their needs met, not being adequately fed or dressed - marvellous!
In reality of course, it’ll be the responsible, caring, functional parents that have one or none and the parents that cannot or will not house or feed themselves let alone their children and make poor choices daily that have more. Those that keep getting so much government support- but there was a massive outcry when the government tried to reduce it!
It’s unpalatable to hear - but true nevertheless.
When you can get nearly as much money for doing nothing there is no incentive to work hard.

I also have an older parent and worryingly will need to help them in the future - they live in rented accommodation, as do I and will need to continue working to pay for this. Even for my generation, unless you inherited or were given help from the bank of mum and dad it has been much harder to buy a house, so we won’t have that - I do worry about housing myself when I am older.
I hope I have supported my children to have a better life - helping with childcare and enabling them to save for a deposit- even if I can’t help them financially. However- to what end?
Things just keep getting worse!
Husband is also about to potentially lose his farming job due to a large scale solar project…. So futures being destroyed in a different way.
The future is quite scary - I understand why people may choose not to have children.
Things like war and food insecurity, water scarcity etc should be unimaginable- not a distinct possibility.

The issue isn't just the number of retired boomers, it's the birth rate being below replacement level.

I have 6 children and have spent years having it thrown at me that I’m selfish for pretty much destroying the planet single handedly- despite never going on an aeroplane and living in a pretty environmentally friendly way.

Your carbon footprint print will still be huge compared to a family of four or childfree couple.

But OP, should I care? I have children but no grandchildren. For the past 30 years governments of UK have adopted policies to make my life less pleasurable.
So sod it I shall do what I can for me and mine.
We used to keep the laws because they were sensible and were for the benefit of society. Now they devise laws to catch us out. For Example Car Parking. All the restrictions and enforcement by thugs who couldn't even become bouncers at clubs. 3 minutes over, you get a fine. No discretion. Stopping on a residential street to unload elderly parent and her shopping it gets picked up on a camera and you get fined.

Great, the UK is overpopulated. Housing prices are insane because of the number of people. AI is going to take a lot of jobs. I'm pleased with a reduction in population, I see it as a good thing.

Aren't the majority of people who migrate here working age ? So it doesn't matter as much if deaths are greater than births for a few years, because the population will still be largely working age adults ?
All the people I know who have come here from other countries are working full time and will be doing so for another 10-20+ years.

Less people paying taxes means less services, less NHS, less infrastructure, less everything.

As the national debt will have to be paid by less tax payers, taxes will be higher. This will more than offset any short-term perks, such as potential decrease in housing prices.

Genuinely concerned there are people who think this is a good thing.

Who will support you when you're a pensioner and have a state pension and need NHS care? Who will pay the taxes to keep our public services going?

We need a bottom heavy population. It is a fundamental of a healthy economy. The NHS has been a victim of it's own success and is keeping people alive for longer. It was not designed for a society where the bulk of the population is ageing.

The key thing to help this is bring housing costs down so families can afford more kids.

Those decades may be hard but we've been through worse wars, the plague etc. The boomers are the bulge generation as someone said the birthrate hasnt changed much in about fifty years. The boomers are in their 60s/70s now so in literally two decades most will have passed away (my parents are boomers so it pains me to talk like this)
Anyone insisting mass immigration that would completely change this country is the solution to something that will rebalance itself in a couple decades is batshit either that or one of those people that love arguing about the beauty of "multicultural diversity" but has never actually lived in such a place, of which there are many on Mumsnet about to crawl out the woodwork to call me racist. This is my last comment though I haven't got all day to argue with them.

People also don't consider that AI will take a lot of jobs anyway

The question of migration is an interesting one. It was thought that migration of working age people was a good thing economically - more tax paid, fewer benefits paid, net gain is better.
However, things have changed a bit. With a large population of non migrants in receipt of benefits, you’re basically paying people not to work, or paying them to work less, and they pay less tax, so then having a migrant doing “their” job, actually isn’t necessarily cost effective, although it depends on the job the migrant worker does.

If migrants come in and do basic jobs that non migrants aren’t doing (while they receive benefits) then the tax doesn’t add up - it would be better for the non migrant to do the job, financially.

Then add in that migrants often bring dependant family members with them who are not contributing and the economics doesn’t make sense.

What we need for migrants are young, highly paid single people who are contributors, not takers.

I’ve simplified it and it is complex.

I only mean this in an economic sense by the way, looking at people very much as “units of production”

But there are only two options: growing population or shrinking population. In the long term neither works out! I guess the best you can hope for is rough stability if we go up down up down.

I hadn't expected it to be this extreme this soon, I have to admit. But it's that way in loads of countries.

If we want to reduce lower skilled migration we need Brits to do the jobs instead. Nobody seems all that keen on making it happen.

And yet, the country feels fit to burst.

Roads clogged.
NHS full.
Housing scarce.
I feel almost claustrophobic when out and about.

With the rise of technology there won’t be enough jobs if we all have 4-5 kids or keep importing low skilled immigration. It’s a Ponzi scheme.

edit : just to add that I had a c section last year and received no after care except a telephone appt from my GP. My child has not been checked by the NHS in two years except for an online questionnaire. This country favours cheap immigration above nationals having babies. We also don’t credit SAHMs and expect women to pop them out and jump straight back to work with poorly funded childcare hours.

I can’t see this as anything but a good thing.
We can maybe slow the concreting over of the countryside, on our overcrowded little island.
The world would be a lot better off with a few Billion less people in my opinion! We are not far away from food, power and water shortages even here where it normally rains plenty.

Those decades may be hard but we've been through worse wars, the plague etc. The boomers are the bulge generation as someone said the birthrate hasnt changed much in about fifty years. The boomers are in their 60s/70s now so in literally two decades most will have passed away (my parents are boomers so it pains me to talk like this)

@Snowiethesnowman but what you are missing that the issue doesn't go away when all the boomers die. We are still going to have an ageing population.

And I really don't understand the "oh it's fine we survived the plague" rhetoric 😆

Anyone insisting mass immigration that would completely change this country is the solution to something that will rebalance itself in a couple decades is batshit either that or one of those people that love arguing about the beauty of "multicultural diversity" but has never actually lived in such a place, of which there are many on Mumsnet about to crawl out the woodwork to call me racist. This is my last comment though I haven't got all day to argue with them.

Has anyone argued for mass immigration?

Everything in this. Totally agree.

@StrawberrySquash

But there are only two options: growing population or shrinking population

Shrinking is good just not shrinking and old.

I hadn't expected it to be this extreme this soon, I have to admit. But it's that way in loads of countries.

It's far worse for us though as we have so much intergenerational inequality, a really fucked housing market, benefits are not linked to what you pay in.