In 4 years, 2029, UK deaths will exceed births!

[TheMintCritic]

Just came across this and thought it was wild… according to the ONS, by 2029 the number of deaths in the UK is expected to outnumber the number of births for the first time in decades.

• Our fertility rate is only about 1.5 kids per woman, well below replacement.
• Meanwhile, the population is ageing — all those baby boomers are moving into their 70s and 80s.
• The result? The natural population growth turns negative, meaning any population increase will rely entirely on immigration.

It’s crazy to think that in just 4 years, births won’t even keep up with deaths. Makes you wonder what that’ll mean for schools, NHS, pensions, and housing.

I agree with you. Again, it’s funny but in Australia, if you earn over a certain amount and don’t have private healthcare, you have to pay a levy of 1% of your income in extra tax.
It is considered selfish to have the means to go private and not use it - you’re taking a place from someone who can’t afford it.

At the last election we had candidates vehemently saying how they had private healthcare while Starmer was vehement that he wouldn’t have it!

That's already happening with emigration out of the UK of doctors, IT professionals, etc who are moving to places like Dubai, Australia, Canada or becoming digital nomads.

It's exactly why we can't keep raising taxes and increasing costs on our young workers - the professional ones are highly mobile and will just move abroad once they struggle in the UK with taxes, house price costs, childcare costs, etc.

We'll have to be more competitive in the World employment market to keep our young professionals.

At my son's firm, one of the UK's largest insurance firms, there's a constant stream of newly qualified accountants/actuaries leaving and emigrating - he says most of the leaving "do's" are people newly qualified in their mid 20's emigrating, and yes, he's started to look at options himself.

I genuinely think that older people will have to use their capital to fund their care.

They should but older people will be outraged at that.

Everyone wants someone else to pay

I don’t think the boomers had loads of kids, though more than today. Think it was an average of 3. The generation before yes! My mother was one of 10!
With the introduction of the NHS many more babies survived hence the population explosion plus advances in healthcare and better nutrition.

We need quality not quantity. We need the "right" kind of immigrants - those who are here to work and being a net contributor rather than minimum wage taking benefits top ups.

But so many people are only paid minimum wage or not much above,and are doing essential jobs. If people are receiving benefits whilst working does that mean that we should increase the minimum wage to reduce the benefits bill ?

I agree. And I stand to inherit a decent amount from my hard working parents so I hope they don’t need care (for their own sake, not mine!) - but I can see that it’s mad that the state should pay when they have the means.

These kind of discussions make me feel horribly guilty that I don't have children. Circumstances have prevented me from having them, and now I am basically too old.

I would like to contribute to society in other ways. I'll try to keep working for as long as possible so that I am paying my way, and I live pretty frugally and save money to fund my own care.

And I'll try to do some good in the community, probably through charity work.

I don't know if that is enough though, and I do still feel terribly guilty.

Classes have always been around 30 though in my experience and I’m 59.

@Strawberriesandpears don't feel guilty.

School class sizes are insane, 31 per reception class in London

primary rolls are falling

schoolsweek.co.uk/unfilled-primary-school-places-up-6-in-a-year-as-falling-rolls-bite/

Nobody would "have to". It would still be a choice, only the alternative would no longer be benefits.

But we don't have high unemployment, most people on benefits work.

And a huge issue is the cost of housing and lack of council housing, so much tax to prop up landlords.

Human populations are just mimicking the food pyramid we all learned in primary school, surely?

Rain and sunshine, lots of grass, boom in rabbit population. Lots of rabbits, boom in fox population, boom in rabbit fleas. Bust in rabbit population, bust in fox population, bust in fleas.

Boom in human population post war, rise in prices means bust in birth rate. Natural death of "boom" generation - transfer of wealth. Boom of subsequent generation with more assets.

There are supposed to be these ebbs and flows of populations. Rising exponentially doesn't work.

Class sizes aren't about population size, they're about funding. Once there are fewer children, classes will be amalgamated, then schools.

Yes and that is why a lot of private schools have closed.

Human populations are just mimicking the food pyramid we all learned in primary school, surely?

it's not a pyramid, that's the point

@BurntBroccoli absolutely

Thank you. It's hard not too though when people post about what a burden you'll be on other people's children in your old age and how they will be 'wiping your bum'.

This is absolutely true, but one thing rabbits don't have is social contagion. The fall in birth rate is partly fuelled by circumstances but it is also driven in part by social media messages that devalue parenthood and convince people that having children is a bad or stupid choice. Eventually a significant proportion of people who got sucked in by that message will get older and realise what a stupid decision they made. There may be a resulting boom - who knows.

That's only part of it. Stupidly high childcare costs and stupidly high housing costs are a much bigger issue in that people simply can't afford to have more children (if any).

An issue running alongside that is that many parents who would love to work full time hours, take promotions, etc., can't because they can't afford the childcare, and therefore languish working part time or in lower level jobs, that work around childcare, thus contributing to the labour shortage and paying less taxes in proportion to full time workers (due to the relative proportions of lower wages within the personal allowance and basic rate band - i.e. such people may be higher rate taxpayers if they worked full time, but only basic rate or tax free because they're working part time!).

There are about 9 million people not working, maybe if they did some work migrants would not be needed. Probably a lot of them will have no motivation to work as it’s impossible to get a house/flat on an average salary. Countries where there are no welfare benefits will forge ahead because you have to work to survive.

But once the older generations have gone, the overall population will have reduced so there will be no need to have extra workers. It isn't a bad thing if the world population reduced, however India and Africa are keeping numbers up.

The issue is that it will take a significant amount of time for the older generations to 'go,' during which time there will be a massive population imbalance.

Studies show that eventually in 100 years the entire world will be on a downward trend, Africa last.
My concern is more about a major crisis happening before the situation stabilises: a combination of environmental, economic and political crises. The three together always drive upheavals. It's also hard to predict who will win the climate lottery and who will lose.

The older generations don't die out though. We will still be a top heavy pyramid. Won't level out for several generations, if ever. The boom was an anomaly and we didn't plan for what comes next.
And birth rates are falling almost everywhere, very rapidly in lots of places. African won't have spare babies for us for much longer.

I didn't used to feel sorry for the boomers, but I do now! They couldn't help being born and now that they're retired or approaching retirement, some people want them to die. Even though a sizable number of them, including my own parents, are helping to care for their grandchildren.