to tell you violent crime in the UK is falling

[1diamondearing]

violence is falling, robbery is falling, gun crime is falling, knife crime and sex crime is not significantly falling or rising, fraud is rising, shoplifting is rising

I have posted pictures from ONS, but it takes time for them to be approved.

Any crime falling is great news. Just remembered that different regions vary.

I have also noticed more police presence. Have they got more funding? Or is crime rising in my area?

Is it though? Or is it just the reporting of crime that’s falling? Most people seem to think that it’s not worth reporting things to the police as there’s unlikely to be a useful response. The argument is often used the other way round eg “no, rapes are not increasing it’s just the reporting of rape that’s increasing”. Also, shoplifting is not prosecuted now if it’s under a certain amount so presumably stores don’t report that either.

This isn't police reported crime, although that is falling too, this is surveys done by the ONS. It takes police reported crime into account, but both measures say the same.

Shoplifting and fraud are the two significant areas that are rising, but even taking that into account, overall crime is falling

Ah ok! That’s interesting - thank you @1diamondearing

Definitely not the case where I live. I live in a rural formerly very sleepy safe area, this is no longer true.

Or reported crime is falling.

I doubt very much, with the economy in a dodgy state and pressures in households increasing, that DV is falling. People can't separate when they need to because housing is so hard to find, leading to inevitably explosive results.

I can believe burglary is falling though. Door cameras and higher quality windows and locks make that sensible. Thieves have just moved on to snatching phones in broad daylight, or shoplifting. It's so much easier.

As I said, this is not just REPORTED crime, this is all crime, although reported crime is also falling

I've just checked domestic homicide, and 108 in 2024 compared to 107 in 2023. But at least it isn't up significantly.

It's not falling in my area !!

One of the first things that was emphasised when I did criminology modules at uni, albeit a while ago, was that neither the crime survey or police reports were a particularly reliable picture of what's going on.

And based on what I've learnt since, incentive structures within the ONS and police (the sorts that have them pretending people can change sex) I trust anything they have to say even less. And will rely on my own eyes.

How are they getting stats for crime that isn't reported? By it's very nature, that data is unreliable isn't it?

Where are the statistics to back up these claims?

Apples meet oranges?

Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) data presented in this release for the YE March 2024 are based on a split sample because new domestic abuse questions are being tested on the survey from April 2023. Caution should be taken when using these data because of the impact of the reduced sample sizes on the quality of the estimates. For more information, see our Domestic abuse QMI.

Police recorded crime data do not provide a measure of domestic abuse prevalence. Caution should be taken when comparing domestic abuse-related police recorded crime data with previous years because of changes in police recording practices. For more information see our How domestic abuse data are captured through the criminal justice system article.

• There was no statistically significant change in the prevalence of domestic abuse experienced in the last year, compared with the previous year.

• The police recorded 851,062 domestic abuse-related crimes in England and Wales in YE March 2024; a decrease compared with the previous year (911,248), which, in part, reflects recent changes in police recording practices.

I am just giving you the overall trends over 10 years. There are all sorts of variations in different crimes and different areas, but overall, crime and violent crime is falling. Knife crime,(basically stable with regional variations) sex crime (basically stable with regional variations, most of it is domestic abuse,), shoplifting (rising fast) and fraud (rising)are the exceptions

do you mean in the last 2 to 3 years rape has levelled out because rape has sharply increased since 2013, so much so that uk is now the rape capital of Europe. Its absolutely nothing to be gloating about. What change happened in 2013.

50,500 offences involving a knife for year ending March 2024, up 4.4% on the previous year. (Excludes Greater Manchester.) I couldn't find this year.

I think that businesses are reporting for insurance, so fraud and shoplifting statistics have gone up, and personal injury victims are reporting less, because its perceived to be futile.

Robbery would probably go down as shoplifting and fraud go up as the gain from the crime is similar and easier to do

I am sure you are right, but even so, your own eyes can only see what is right in front of them, but the ONS covers the whole of England and Wales. It is the best measure we have

Funny that no one is saying 'oh that's a bit of bright news on a stormy day' and instead everyone is saying a variation on: not in my area/statistics lie/ that's what they want you to believe... Etc etc.

Why is that? These responses to what is ostensibly good news are so interesting

This is the ONS, and I have posted graphs, but for some reason they are not showing. I will try again

I love your optimism, OP, and I hope it is true but others seem to disagree.

That’s good news thanks op

why are your graphs showing (although the source isn't) and my graphs are not! The ONS does agree sex crimes have levelled out over the last 10 years, and gone down in some areas and up in others, the other point about their statistics on sex crimes is they are mostly domestic abuse

Perhaps because the British public is sick of being fed a line, and have become distrustful of anything from government, when people's lived experiences say differently.