To be really worried about Reform?

[FiveHorse]

Just that really. They’re predicted to gain the most from the upcoming elections, if this carries on could we see a reform government at the next general elections? Or is it press scaremongering as usual?

Talk for all Jewish people do you as I know plenty of Jewish people that think you are chatting shit!

The ‘reality from down under’ isn’t one Guardian article.

It doesn't matter how near you live to Ebbw Vale if you refuse to accept that other people in the area have valid opinions different to your own (I thought you lived nearer Cardiff by the way).

You know why the pound shops? Because there’s no money in the area.

Yes - I posted earlier today;
Despite receiving EU funding, Ebbw Vale [Blaenau Gwent] still had one of the highest unemployment rates in the UK and the second-lowest median salary.

The EU at least provided some [money]

Did you at least read my subsequent links? Some extracts from my first link;

Despite 16 years of the EU’s maximum level of help, Blaenau Gwent – the most pro-leave local authority area in Wales – saw a decline in the number of jobs in the area...
A huge deal has been made of Wales’ EU structural funds over the years... They frankly don’t deserve this coverage, because the actual spend about £4 billion over 20 years – is a drop in the public spending ocean...
In the fourteen years 2001-2015, 27,000 manufacturing jobs disappeared. The elephant in the room is that a proportion of these jobs didn’t vanish into thin air but were relocated elsewhere in the EU, whether it was Continental Teves shifting production to Slovakia or Merthyr Tydfil’s Sekisui moving to the Netherlands. Not unreasonably, the public saw the EU giving money to West Wales and the Valleys to create jobs at the same time as the EU single market encouraged job loss...
True, the evidence of EU-supported schemes is all around, be it the A465, the Ebbw Vale Learning Zone or town centre improvements across the valleys. But these infrastructure schemes have yet to generate tangible economic benefits.
On top of this, many EU investments are essentially more of the same – the A465 was already there, Ebbw Vale already had a college, we already have apprenticeships. So public awareness of the benefits are inevitably muted. And add to this the fact that other parts of the UK upgrade their infrastructure without EU help – and you can begin to see why people might be sceptical.

@RatalieTatalie
ive not seen any mention of Jews on this thread until [pp] just brought them up

You posted this earlier;

Any of this sound familiar? (You can replace Jews with Muslims or Asylum Seekers if it helps)...

Hitler's hatred of Jews struck a chord with many people...

I really hope so ,they deserve a chance, they may be all bark and no bite but at least they must be given the opportunity

Has Blaenau Gwent benefitted from Brexit?

Sorry, should have been clearer….ive not seen any negative mentions of Jews, particularly relating to them being fascists on this thread

It will be when Albanese retains power. It looks as if Trump has provoked a pivot to the left.

Funny you should ask - the Welsh Secretary mentioned Blaenau Gwent in parliament today regarding a 'trailblazer' pilot project to help people back into secure, well-paid jobs. Although of course, one might point out that Labour have been in government in Wales for years.

ID cards haven't reduced immigration into mainland Europe has it?

We give a migrant £49 per week, it's just £9 if meals provided... how much would you reduce this by?
France gives a migrant 47 euros per migrant, about £40... that extra £9 worth risking being drowned for?

Rwanda, at best, would have taken 500 per year... how is that a deterrent? the chances of going there was tiny... Rwanda is also involved another countries war...

Australia had more "success" because everyone was deported to a deserted Island camp...

Have a check of Gary’s Economics. He explains simply why our public services, to our household income has tanked over past two decades and what we can do about it - aka: tax wealth and by wealth he means over £10m assets/ income.

It’s easy to whip up the fear of the “other” - in recent years, parties like Ukip, now reform are go hardline against the concept of “immigration”

find it odd that we are an island nation and fear immigration so much. The clue is in the name - British Isles - the majority of us or our ancestors migrated here at some point.

the hardest hit communities and those whose lives and income have been decimated by the past two years … it’s easy to point finger at some random group if you have politicians fanning the highly toxic flames of division and otherness rather than working to bring communities together.

England has a habit of voting for those who stuck two fingers up at the establishment - we are a rebellious people… that sometimes gets forgotten (Wat Tyler, the Peasants Revolt, the Levellers, the Chartists and so on)…it’s just sad that the reform bunch are as establishment as you get - they are no rebels or voice of change. Far from it.

The mainstream parties have brought this on themselves. The government need to crackdown on illegal immigration, start deporting failed asylum seekers , stop organised crime gangs laundering money via takeaways, Turkish barbers and vape shops. Also an enquiry into asian rape gangs needs to be held asap. If they fail to do this Reform will gain many seats at the next election.

Alexandra2001
Rwanda, at best, would have taken 500 per year... how is that a deterrent? the chances of going there was tiny...

500 per year is more than we were returning to the EU under the Dublin Regulation - 200/300 per year...

I’d say the government need to crack down on tax avoiders, corporations and HNWI (£10m and over). I don’t agree with you (that’s okay, we’re adults here, right), but for the government to have any chance of actually doing anything they need more money - I’d say our country is borderline bankrupt. It’s people be us working, middle or upper class all are feeling in our own ways, the pinch. I don’t feel the biggest problem we have right now are hairdressers / barbers and as mi can as think vape shops are a blight on our high streets - I think that’s a smaller issue. We’re an island nation, if we all scratch back - we are all immigrant stock. Let’s reframe our anger and discontent - we need to take back our services - water, rail as just two - and bring them back into public control. We need to make sure all pay their fair share - starting with those worth broadest shoulders.

Yeah .... we also didn't have 10s of 1000s crossing the channel in boats did we?

Something changed in 2020.. any ideas?

The point here is that many 1000s have died crossing the med... it doesn't them trying again and again...

I don't technically disagree with this but as any teacher would say "you didn't read the question." it wasn't What should the government do? It was more how can we avoid Reform coming to power?

Aus figures are tiny anyway. If that’s the approach put forward at next GE.

Apart from their views on immigration, which of Reform's policies appeal to you?

We made around 8,500 requests to return asylum seekers to the EU in 2020 (mostly boat arrivals and our membership of the Dublin Agreement lasted the whole year) - only 105 were sent back.

Also, I see that it's been reported that Germany asked Italy to take back 12,841 asylum seekers last year and they only accepted 3.

Frankly, it would make more sense to argue that the Dublin Agreement was a safe route in to the UK for asylum seekers which has now been cut off - but politicians and others are so determined to frame the agreement as a deterrent (rather than being honest) that everyone is in a muddle over it.

The ‘reality from down under’ isn’t one Guardian article

A valid critique @EasternStandard

Accordingly a non Graun and wider cross-section - also useful for those manning polling stations tomorrow should they not be dealing with a steady stream of voters from 07:00 to 22:00 and are looking to wile away the less busy hours.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1369801X.2022.2080578#d1e102

https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/our-research/call-me-illegal-semantic-struggle-over-seeking-asylum-australia

https://immi.homeaffairs.gov.au/what-we-do/migration-program-planning-levels

https://www.futurelearn.com/info/courses/migration-facts/0/steps/34241

https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/11/28/australia-passes-harsh-new-anti-migration-laws

https://humanrights.gov.au/our-work/asylum-seekers-and-refugees

https://monitor.icef.com/2025/01/australia-and-canada-rising-to-the-challenge-of-new-immigration-policies/

https://poll.lowyinstitute.org/charts/immigration-rate/

https://devpolicy.org/a-mixed-bag-views-on-immigration-in-australia-20240207/

https://www.anu.edu.au/news/all-news/australians-want-less-migration-but-support-for-international-students-remains-steady

Ok I’ve looked at each briefly, just to help out what view are you putting forward?

A few on narrative, one on high migration levels. I don’t think anything there goes against the earlier posts on Aus taking a bi-partisan approach to border control. Even with an election coming up both parties are pretty much committed to OSB.

But anyway, what would like me to take from the articles?

Sorry @EasternStandard no point being made. I just felt a momentary pang of guilt for posting, as you quite rightly pointed out, a single Graun article, and felt compelled to provide a bit of, admittedly largely irrelevant for the thread, balance from a few more links. Just a needless distraction.

I do live near Cardiff. I have a car…it’s a 50 min drive.
Money went into the economy. The decline would have been worse without - as it is now.

🙄

I'm more worried about the level of intolerance for other people's right to vote. Deal with it and ask yourself whether you're part of the reason why people are voting Reform.