I never thought I'd see the US aligning with Russia

[VolcanoJapan]

The US appear under Trump to be aligning with Putin and Russia more and more.

What was until recently referred to as our greatest allie is moving close to Russia in many ways, carving up Ukraine for Russia, trade deals with Russia.

It's bizarre.

Aibu to think it's bizarre or was this always coming when trump was elected?

I expect it was opposed by the US.

If they change on this then great. Not sure what the likelihood of that occurring is but much prefer spending on preparation than other flimsier and riskier suggestions.

As with pretty much all conflicts since the end of WWII, this whole thing has to do with energy.
Trump wants Greenland and is buttering up Putin to get better access to the warming Arctic waters. Russia owns a hell of a lot of space up there...
THAT's what he cares about. Sod democracies and alliances. What worries me is that beyond the crazy ideological talk, he might in fact deeply fear China doing the same on the sly (ie buying up resources around the world) and for all his climate denial talk, he must know there's trouble ahead.
So he's basically trying to pull a Titanic on Europe - remember when the first class passengers all fuck off into half-empty lifeboats and the plebs are left to drown? That's us and much of the Global South...

Anyway let's assume that one of the strengths of the EU will come into play. That is rewriting sanctions on the grounds of National security which gives you a free hand (it's what Trump does btw).

Europe should start expanding its sanctions. I note it made more on Russia on Tuesday. The EU is a diplomatic dwarf. But economically it has a lot of skill to make Russia poor. And it would be proportionate given what Putin has done and continues to do. Russia is not Europe's friend. Nor is Trump, to judge from yesterday

UNLESS Europe pulls itself together and present a solid united front.

We really must keep Reform out of the government. They're on the other side.

Interesting that the EU has just opened talks with the US on gas access. It hasn't sanctioned Russian gas yesterday.

There is a deal being done here on energy in the background.

However, expanding sanctions during any ceasefire talks is a good idea for Europe.

We don't want an economically strong Russia armed to the teeth on our borders.

Absolutely @bombastix

Also seems that the EU is moving to sanction Moscow shadow shipping. Good.

This proposal for peacekeepers in Ukraine is quite critical. The Russians will oppose it because they will not want any oversight of Ukraine's ports and infrastructure which they want to manipulate and attack.

Interesting that this is what Starmer proposes. Smart. No troops on the line but the vital infrastructure of Ukraine protected and sanctions maintained. A good plan which the Russians will hate.

What happens if fighting starts with those troops in place?

Wouldn't that scenario necessitate Russian troops being in Ukraine @EasternStandard?

I don't think any deal is going to be based on Russia having military access. The peacekeeping comes after the deal which means Russia leaves.

And what's stopping them going back in?

I'm talking about a military deployment post a peace deal. Ukraine is still a sovereign country but can permit peacekeeping forces to enter its territory.

Where the Russians draw the line is something else.

Russia undermines democracies and other countries by attacks on its infrastructure both physical and virtual. This happens even in peace time.

The Starmer plan proposes protection of that infrastructure post a deal.

I don't think the UK should carry this alone; but let's get real here, if Russia did make an actual military grade attack rather than its usual sabotage then that is a war.

Which is what we have now. Either you believe the Russians want peace or you don't.

Not much support so far only Macron

And a pissed off Scholz. Not sure CDU will get enough support post GE and others not keen.

All still saying US is needed or it's not happening. And Russia have said no way so why a yes after that

It looks like posturing at this point for political gain.

I prefer the prepare angle based on funds. If the US agrees to that then great.

Tbh that is predictable but the point will be if Starmer can sell it to Trump. We will find out shortly,

The Russians hate it. Good. It limits their ability to undermine sanctions and attack Ukraine's infrastructure. That is clearly what they want to do.

Energy discussion sounds good

Anything that dampens escalation goes in good basket, including keeping US marginally onside by buying stuff or money

The opposite in the other

Plus EU need to spend on preparations not reparations (just saw headline)

Also, this thing has to work.

The EU is still buying Russian gas. It would like to stop.

The question of Russian economic integration is a big issue for Europe. But it seems the signs so far are that it is not business as usual. And that is good.

I mean it's dire for ordinary Russians but let's face it Putin doesn't care about them or their poverty. The EU and the UK should not be enabling oligarch Russian business which is backed by Putin.

The Russians hate it. Good. It limits their ability to undermine sanctions and attack Ukraine's infrastructure. That is clearly what they want to do.

30,000 peacekeepers doesn't do this though

You don't know do you @EasternStandard?

Actuality the two things go well together.

Actually... stupid autocorrect

Not sure what you mean @bombastix

This idea that Russia seethingly agrees to 30k peace keepers. I mean why would they?

What's keeping those troops free from another attack and what next if it happens?

I can see why only Macron and Starmer are pushing it, but I guess we'll see.

Why don't you explain @EasternStandard?

You are a great one for questions but little explanation.

I think it's rather clever. And clearly the Russians absolutely hate it because it would limit what they could do outside of the peace deal.

This is how they work. They want a nice simple deal and then get into their usual MO of sabotage and undermining matters with no limit.

This is their usual mentality. We should not trust them.

@bombastix explain what?

I've posted what I think, I don't think I've missed what you're looking for. Can you be specific on what you think is missing.

I saw an article talk about the risk associated with the troops and that's where my interest lies

There was also a commentator following this up saying any return to fighting needs a kind of get out of escalation clause. Not sure what.

To me that sounds like sitting ducks. If I know that would be the plan then Russia will.

I don't mind if people can say how it is actually robust and without escalatory risk, perhaps someone knows.

All my views are based on not getting closer to further war

He has been like this for years. It’s not a recent thing.

@EasternStandard - I think we just disagree on how you manage that risk.

I don't believe Russia will not continue incursion into Ukraine post any deal. It seems better to me to agree peacekeeping to actually test Russia's actual intentions because I don't believe Putin will stop. Ukraine is still a sovereign country and this deal can be written to ensure this: if there are no specific peacekeeping provisions it will be worthless.

Ukraine is a sovereign state: we should help them maintain that in my view.

He was volatile last time but not this bad. Perhaps this is the real Trump emboldened by even more political power and less resistance from the Democrats?

Either way the defunding of the military is an absolute disaster, as was leaving the EU. We urgently need to pull the public together here - we need to get them off benefits, stop paying concessions we can’t afford and rechannel the money toward defence. I feel like the whole of the UK has been asleep at the wheel for the last 10 years, and we’re about to see a rather awful result.