To be worried about what the Labour government will do next?

[Scenicgirl]

Let's be honest, Labour has been a massive disappointment for this country, pissing off the pensioners with taking away the WFA, the farmers, NI changes which impact employers, immigration etc and today refusing compensation to the WASPI women after they ridiculed the Conservatives when they didn't commit to a solution. Don't we deserve better than this constant shit show of lies and deceptions which were clearly spouted out purely to gain power?
For the 1st time in my life, I worry about where we are heading.

Those aren’t rich parents then.

How did austerity and ideological demolishing of public services stimulate growth?

I'll tell you how this government is stimulating growth.

• By demonstrating fiscal responsibility and a fully costed well-prepared budget - unlike say, ooh, Kwasi Kwarteng
• By investing in public services so that there are not millions of people too sick to work which impedes economic growth, or no-one qualified to do jobs because the education system is so utterly shit and not fit for purpose
• By removing unfair loopholes like VAT on fee-paying schools, winter fuel allowance across the board regardless of income, IHT exemptions for wealthy landowners and business owners
• By making business pay their way and pay employees properly - instead of being subsidised by the government.
• By, unlike the Conservatives, demonstrating political stability and not changing their leader every five minutes because they are terrified of their right wing headbanger members

Zero exemption on education isn't a loophole. It is an agreed principle across Europe. Unless zero rating of VAT on anything is a loophole in which case all kids clothes are a loopholes

Why does every thread seem to lead to school fee VAT? It is soooooooooooooooooooooo boring.

We're not in the EU and left to make our own decisions. I'd rather have stayed in but it's what your lot dragged us into. A far worse decision for business than rises in NI and minimum wage. And it's not like the Conservatives never raised minimum wage, there were several increases while they were in power. But when Labour do something similar it's like WAAAHHH SOCIALISM, because of our ridiculous right wing press.

@SharpOpalNewt ok but Labour's current policies are doing the opposite. That's the problem for them

This is today, the downgrading and the reasoning

The Bank of England held interest rates at 4.75 per cent today, while downgrading economic forecasts for the UK towards stagnant growth.

“The prospective increase in labour costs from higher National Insurance contributions from next April, announced in the Budget, is currently weighing heavily on sentiment,” the Bank said.

Companies are considering cutting their headcount, accelerating investment in automation, and offshoring labour to deal with the National Insurance hike, it added.

My lot? Whose that?
I voted Remain

Don't let that stop you

It's a balance - short term pain for longer term stability. It's a workers market at the moment, there are massive skills shortages and unemployment is low.

Businesses have to pay their way and pay for public services that they and employees need to use. Otherwise there will be no economic growth long term. They can make all the noise they like but they need to employ people somewhere and wages are rising everywhere.

There are other factors which affect economic forecasts - increased threat of war for example. Trump and protectionism, for example. Being on the outside of a massive single market that operates next door to you, for example.

I made a point about socialism. That was what the PP and I were discussing. Then you replied with something about right wing parties. I don't understand the relevance when we were discussing the downsides of socialism. Hence why I assumed you were trying to say that socialism is just as bad as right wing parties.

Or were you trying a bit of whataboutery, perhaps.....?

Supermarket chatbots is a little harsh. Now you have accusedpeople of that, I am rather looking forward to some exceptionally intelligent and skilled debating from you. Let's see what you come up with.

Let's be honest- lots of this is sensible.

We are still in the ECHR though......

Exactly and this post is crazy.

FOR THE FIRST TIME IN YOUR LIFE you are worried?

You must have had a fantastic pandemic. I was worried every day. I've been worried every day for the last 14 years about where the country is going as it was so apparent that the Conservatives were taking a huge wrecking ball to it.

It's a balance - short term pain for longer term stability

I don't think Labour wanted or expected a downgrade in growth, it's moving in the opposite direction to what they need

It also takes us closer to recession and that impacts many negatively

No, they probably didn't, but there are many external factors at play which it is hard to influence. And many long term factors like an ageing population, a sick population and skills shortages which put the shackles on economic growth, which will take a long time to sort out, if they even get the chance.

@SharpOpalNewt the BoE are citing Labour policies though

The contraction is due to Labour unfortunately

“The prospective increase in labour costs from higher National Insurance contributions from next April, announced in the Budget, is currently weighing heavily on sentiment,” the Bank said.

Companies are considering cutting their headcount, accelerating investment in automation, and offshoring labour to deal with the National Insurance hike, it added.

However some choices have obvious forseeable consequences eg putting up employer NI

You keep repeating this but the real issue isn't this months growth or next month's growth..
the UK has had appalling growth over the last decade or so.

Growth in 2023 - 0.1% overall, let that sink in.... 0.1% !!

Growth 2024 Q1 and Q2 was 0.5% Q3 0.1% - even you wouldn't put that on Labour as they'd only just been in and Parliament didn't even sit for the first 6 weeks.

If we keep doing the same things, we'll keep getting the same results.

How would you raise the money needed for the NI cuts various scandals and pay rises for Nurses etc? if not Business NI increases, what?

We cannot borrow it and amounts to well over 34 billion.

How would you raise the monies required? or would you borrow?

All actions have consequence.

It's a fantastic example of a Labour policy which they claim will raise money but in fact is brought in for petty idealogical reasons and has backfired costing more than it will raise and devastating a specific non-public sector group of people in society. Same as farmers. It sums up this government's approach and is a useful example to voters for the next election.

We are not heading towards a recession. I have searched it and it is not there. UK is not forecasted a recession at this point.
Yes, businesses are not recruiting as they were before the budget. They will have to adjust. They need to reduce their margins and the bonuses to their top managers. For the smaller guys, their customers can pay a little more, as they had a payrise or maintain what they had, in the very same budget.
There is a big reality staring us in the face of Capitalism. It is far far too top heavy. There is far too much money on the higher earners range, leaving the customer pot far too stranded for cash. No customer money means nothing gets sold. As easy as that. If you do want to keep Capitalism as the way forward, we need to adjust the wealth distribution. Otherwise, it will crush itself. Do we all see this? And if so, which other measures would be acceptable to you? Instead of the raising of taxes in the past budget? How would you do it?

Indeed 👏

First people complain no links then complain about quotes from the BoE. But yep they are talking about Labour and downgrading even if pro Labour on here prefer to ignore info

Whether Reeves can deal with it I guess we'll see

Well it will be easy enough to see if the statement "we are not heading towards a recession " is right or wrong fairly soon.

The only way to raise money ie tax, is to have a healthy economy that employs people + then to have more net contributors
The average UK worker contributes only £800 per year if you deduct what they take from the state.
That's why there is no money. We have too few net contributors and too many net takers.

We need to have cross party, non-partisan grown up discussions about what we want education/healthcare etc to look like and how much it will cost and how we can pay for it but that simply won't happen so we are stuck in a perpetual cycle of blame and 1 shit policy after another which just tinker around the edges and end up creating more damage.

We are not heading towards a recession. I have searched it and it is not there.

Interesting. I guess that's why growth can be downgraded as it was today