Should we be worried about war

[Seasidesand76]

Seen a lot in the news about Ukraine using USA missiles against Russia. I've been thinking more along the lines that it won't start a WW3 and will resolve at some point without the UK getting directly involved in war. But there seems to be more and more tension and threats of an all out war recently.

Should we be worried about WW3? I haven't been prepping or anything but does make me wonder if I should start getting a few days worth of food in case. At the same time I don't want to go down the prepper hole and start getting over the top.

I don’t see it that way - Zelensky is a worldwide icon. A legend. A hero. Putin will end up being tried in The Hague. That is the best case scenario for Putin.

This is what I believe too. Unfortunately,

Well, at a point when the destruction has been too great, and a diplomatic solution is apparently reached, certain global corporations will tender for contracts to rebuild Ukraine, and a few people will make an awful lot of money.

At least, that's how it usually goes.

I think they're currently negotiating what constitutes an acceptable level of destruction.

Disaster capitalism for the win.
(That's sarcasm by the way).

maybe in parts of Europe and the US

many many people admire Putin and he isn’t going to go anywhere that he could possibly be arrested he isn’t a fool

but it doesn’t come down to that the war in the ME has the potential to negatively impact lives in the ME, Europe and the US

Then why did Putin amend his nuclear doctrine?

The US would not previously permit Ukraine to use targeting data that permitted strikes within Russia - reports would suggest that is no longer the case.

It’s potentially escalatory because Zelensky is attempting to provoke Putin before Trump enters the WH. The same thinking has informed Biden’s decision.

What did you call me?

They showed a youngish crying woman on the news here today, who was asked if she thought it was time to surrender. And she said maybe, because this is just too hard. She had just lost her family. But I’ve not seen that on the news before, and I found it both sad and worrying.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/19/us-russia-ukraine-missile-attacks

Oh yippee .... 🙄

Actually now you mention Scandinavian countries I remember
I wish our Govn would have a bit of foresight….after all, you never know

Goodness, it would be just like our government not to prepare us in any way! 🙄

Why does worrying make it go away?

And why do you think Poland is the third biggest contributor in NATO when it comes to military spending?
It’s because we actually remember our history very well.

This is what I do too 😂

@Hididi11

"The person who is bitter about sthm is probs bitter because she can't stay at home.

To all the sthm.....welldone for doing you!!!"

I agree- I'm not bitter just plain old envious at those who've managed to be sahm.

Anyway back to that power point presentation I have to finish by tomorrow night.

Well both Russia and Ukraine are too weak to win outright and too strong to lose outright. So it grinds on in an attritional conflict (much like WW1) where it's a case of who runs out of soldiers or more accurately men willing to fight and die. In this point Russia has the advantage with a bigger population (plus some N Koreans).

I think Trump will threaten to pull military aid unless Ukraine agrees to hand over roughly the current occupied territories and an agreement not to join NATO/ EU.

The Western European countries will make a lot of noise about standing by Ukraine but ultimately won't because they are unwilling to spend more on defence in order to contribute more to Ukraine. I mean how many people in the UK would support higher taxes or cuts in spending on the NHS in order to increase military support to Ukraine?

Zelensky then refuses such a deal, tries to carry on with less western aid, military situation gets worse for Ukraine, Zelensky becomes unpopular due to setbacks and gets removed. New leader agrees peace deal with Russia on worse terms than originally offered.

Ukraine and Europe conveniently blame the US and Trump. Big reconstruction project for Ukraine begins with China and Chinese firms the biggest beneficiaries.

Then China tries to invade Taiwan in the late 2020s where the US does step in to help but Western European countries do not because they don't want to pay for it and they are still holding a grudge about Ukraine.

Well that's my crystal ball gazing anyway!

Poland also gets more value for money in military spending than other European NATO members by buying commercially available weapons systems from countries like South Korea, rather than bespoke, locally produced systems that are made in smaller quantities. So Poland gets more "bang for the buck" as they say.

It's not just a question of how much a country spends, it's also how smartly they spend it.

@broccolienthusiast

"And why do you think Poland is the third biggest contributor in NATO when it comes to military spending?
It’s because we actually remember our history very well."

Nothing to do with history and more to do with geography and sharing a border with Kalingrad and Belarus.

Given the bigger population, the higher military spending, NATO membership, living memory experience of life under Soviet rule and a population that is very proud of being Polish and would definitely fight to preserve this - then I don't Putin would ever consider attacking Poland.

Exactly this.. We are just pawns in this geopolitical game..

'Zombie apocalypse'? What an ignorant, dismissive, sneering response to the everyday lived reality of hundreds of millions of people who are currently trying to survive in disaster and war zones around the world.

In the UK, with its imagined superiority and delusional complacency, any crisis situation will be vastly worsened by the colossal uselessness and casual thuggery of a great many of the population.

There has definitely been talk of war in some other European countries too, including Sweden, Estonia, Poland etc. And seem to recall Generals of Western Countries mentioning the threat too including Germany.

I do think that the current US 'escalation', if you'd call it that, is not going to hit deep enough into Russia. Perhaps Biden and administration saw it as a good move, then unpredictable Trump, I'm not a fan but he may well then come in and play the peace / negotiation card.

Why worry about war? Worry about waking up each day and living day to day. Nothing is guaranteed in life. What can we do if war is declared. Love our families a lot more ❤

Putin looses just one small yield tactical warhead - even airburst, and not only will he be a total pariah, he will be taken out from within.

Thats the calculation he knows only too well.

I was referring to the initiators in these things, which are largely tritium-based (half-life ~12 years). If the tritium hasn't been replaced since the end of the USSR its entirely possible that these Russian nukes are unable to detonate their radioactive (typically plutonium or uranium) payloads.

And looking at Russia's tiny nuclear weapons budgets and infinite capacity for corruption, I would not be surprised if the tritium hasn't been replaced at all in the 35-or so years since the USSR fell apart.

The first use of any nuclear weapon is strategic, regardless of the warhead size.

That's a good point. With Trump coming into power in a matter of weeks Putin would be more likely to "teach the UK a lesson" rather than the USA... It's all rather frightening