Should we be worried about war

[Seasidesand76]

Seen a lot in the news about Ukraine using USA missiles against Russia. I've been thinking more along the lines that it won't start a WW3 and will resolve at some point without the UK getting directly involved in war. But there seems to be more and more tension and threats of an all out war recently.

Should we be worried about WW3? I haven't been prepping or anything but does make me wonder if I should start getting a few days worth of food in case. At the same time I don't want to go down the prepper hole and start getting over the top.

Russia have circumvented the concept of MAD though haven’t they ? They’re essentially reserving the right to launch a unilateral attack any nuclear state who either attacks or enables anyone else to attack Russia with conventional weapons. There’s something about that which suggests a complete disregard for the principle of mutually assured destruction which kept the peace for so long.

Last time I saw Jeffrey Sachs he was being welcomed as an old friend on Russian state TV doing an interview for them

@broccolienthusiast

"And surely no one is naive enough to believe that Putin will stop at Ukraine."

Other than remembering GCSE History on appeasement in the 1930s
what actual evidence is there for Putin wanting to attack other Eastern European territory, most of which are NATO members and they would clearly request support.

It's nonsensical to believe that unless we stop Russia in the Donbas then their next target will be Basingstoke.

Absolutely.
You can't live online.

If you lay waste to a territory with nuclear weapons you don’t need boots on the ground or to occupy the territory. You just have to accept that there will be mass destruction on all sides. Putin appears to be comfortable with this.

If I were Zelensky I would escalate now in order to force the West’s hand, before Trump is inaugurated.

What an incredibly condescending, snide response which shows what you really think of stay at home mums. I'm childless, but object to your attitude.

How do you propose he escalates?
By invading Russia? - he's already done that

It's just rhetoric and intimidation from Putin. He's said the same before, but ultimately, as long as no-one tries to march on Moscow, Russia losing in Ukraine is not an existential threat to his survival. So he won't commit suicide by using nuclear weapons.

People allowing themselves to be intimidated are talking themselves into defeat.

Did Russia or the US use nuclear weapons in Afghanistan when they both lost wars there? Did the US use nuclear weapons in Vietnam?

It wouldn't be the U.K though, would it. He'd pick-off Estonia, Latvia, and Poland through Belarus. Then if successful with that, Finland, Lithuania

Putin now refuses to accept the existence of Lithuania as an independent country. He has made the same threats towards Estonia about the Russian-speaking minority in that country as he made about Ukraine before the invasion.

Imperialist logic accepts no limits. Always the Empire must expand.

Rightly or wrongly, I do feel this has the whiff of Cuban missiles crisis. Of course there's little we can do about it other than "keep calm and carry on", but I don't think it's unreasonable to keep half an eye on current affairs. While Putin may just keep bleating the same rhetoric periodically there is so much destabilisation across the world it would be hubristic to say "never".

Now, back to being a cat.

Cyber warfare is a big part of warfare, it can shut down governments and prevent basic goods. It’s not like we are going to get off our phones and join the military.

Both of those are frequently quoted as the only times a nuclear power has lost a war. It’s not a question of marching on Moscow. Biden has given Ukraine permission to launch a missile system supplied by the US and operated to a certain extent by the UK. If those missiles hit deep into Russia and cause significant destruction you can bet the farm this madman will consider that an existential threat. And where are all the voices now who were condemning Biden as having lost capacity and needing to step down ? If that’s really the case why have they allowed him to make this decision given that he may not have the capacity to understand the ramifications ?

NATO is an alliance of countries from Europe and North America. Its members are committed to protecting each other from any threat.

NATO isn’t a peacekeeping organisation.

I never think about it. I can't actually do anything about it, so what's the point?

The Ukrainians have already used their own weapons to destroy numerous targets deep inside Russia. The Ukrainians have actually invaded and seized Russian territory. They've held that territory for months now.

Why would a few missiles provoke nuclear war when an occupation of Russian territory has not?

@SuperfluousHen Sachs?

So we've had Sachs, Carlson already. I'm waiting for someone to quote Lord B*bo and then I'm calling bingo

And donating to U24

Because it’s about other state actors getting involved and giving Ukraine the means to go further. Don’t get me wrong, I’m no supporter of Putin but backing a dangerous man into a corner isn’t a good idea. He has no way out without losing face. What has he to lose ?

Interesting thread... clearly there is a small chance of everything at the moment, including nuclear war. But Putin making noises about it doesn't mean it's going to happen. A conventional war is more likely, starting I'd guess with the invasion of one of the Baltic states. But how that will play out with Trump in charge of US involvement, f*ck knows.

The whole discussion sounds a bit odd to me. It's the British media specifically that are going on about living in a pre-war era. I read Flemish, German and US media as well (reading news being my main procrastination method, and having lived/living in these countries) and the war talk doesn't happen the same way anywhere else.

I think it has to do with the way WW II is fetishized in the UK, as this great test of society (that society passed). Implication being that 'we' all have to pull our socks up again, gird 'our' loins, be ready for the next test...

It's very different in a country that doesn't stand a chance in a major conflict (Belgium) or has lost a couple of them crashingly (Germany). You don't talk about getting ready for war by way of rhetorical flourish (which is how the Tories first brought it up, I think, bunch of unserious chancers that they are).

(In the US, I think they just worry less because they've got other things on their plate and are big, isolated and used to fighting wars, win, lose or draw, with relatively little hardship for civilians.)

I bought some extra bottled water, a water filter, some tinned food and a camping gas stove with canisters in the run-up to the US election (and was a leetle bit tempted to invest in a lead suit, but gave my head a wobble).

My 2016 self would be in stitches at these actions, but I think by now they're sensible if you've got kids to look after and are the worrying kind. It stops me thinking about it too much (which is clearly a waste of time, as there are too many imponderables involved).

It doesn't win wars.

You can't win the war and secure Donbas and the Crimea without boots on the ground. Drones in the sky, planes overhead, etc. are just area denial. If you can't live there, work there, live a normal civilian life on the territory, then you haven't (yet) won the war.

Unless you can imagine a new definition for "win" that doesn't involve that.

The planet being reduced to a spinning cinder in space comes to mind. Win win.

I worked in defence for a while. It was obvious to me that we are already at war - supplying arms and outwardly saying we are supporting the Ukraine.

I had hoped there was a diplomatic solution - Putin wanted the part of Ukraine where the population allegedly consider themselves Russia. OOO to think he can just demand that, but I am sure there was a solution had one been properly discussed. We have walked into this with our eyes wide open and it's not something we can easily extract ourselves from given all the other countries that are our allies that Putin has threatened.

And with Israel fighting everyone and anyone they see supporting Palestinians and/or Hamas, a second war in the Middle East could break out at any time given the richest countries have already declared they do not recognise Israel and won't until they create peace and recognise the rights of Palestinians.

It's a mess created by men who want bigger dicks!

I think there probably will be a war.
But as we are in between Russia and the US the good thing is that we will probably go quickly x

Simple.

Atacms.