To think it’s obvious why the birth rate is falling

[workidoos]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cnvj3j27nmro.amp

Life is prohibitively expensive in this country. We earn the UK average income each and can’t foresee being able to comfortably have a second child without the financial impact being too great. I understand sacrifices can be made but in addition to extortionate childcare and the essentials we want to be able to afford extracurriculars, birthday parties, Christmases, trips away for us and DD and some basic savings for her future. I’m not talking private school or extravagant holidays either. With another this would be harder, I’d have to definitely work full time and for longer to afford it and thus losing out on work life balance for what’s likely to be increased mental load and stress in some way or another.

On a local group someone was saying it’s over £100 for two adults and a child to enter a festive park nearby and see Santa. Mind boggling. As a family of 3 it then feels like the natural choice to stay that way, despite the fact we always saw ourselves with a bigger family.

Does this sound like anyone else’s situation? AIBU to think this news shouldn’t be a surprise?

Not unless people start increasing family size again- if every successive reproductive cohort shrinks because the long term BR is below 2 then you’ll have a permanently older weighted population. Say 100 people breed and they have 80 kids between them, then those people have 64 kids so when those 3 generations are alive they are weighted towards the older people. That’s v simplistic but it’s not far off unless I’m missing something.

One of the single biggest changes the government could make, would be to enforce child maintenance - really enforce it. Make non-resident parents, who are more often than not men, pay for the children they helped to create.

There’s a clear choice though, increase birth rate or encourage immigration. We can’t support an aging population without enough people working. Given global warming is likely to trigger migration I’d have thought embracing migration is the obvious choice but it needs a PR job! I personally would like a retirement. 2 child tax benefit does seem even more ridiculous at this point though.

Fewer birth control options in poorer countries. Women less in control of their reproductive choices. No social welfare so children are the safety net. All the evidence points to the more educated the mother, the more control she has, the fewer the children.

Whilst it’s true that population growth is a disaster for the planet, every economy is predicated on growth and on the population replacing itself. Our pensions and social welfare depends on this happening. It’s a dilemma for sure.

Yanbu. It also doesn’t help that with all the costs and maternity leave, the price of chilli’s extortionate when there have been minimal pay rises through the years.
But then, more women are also career orientated and will have no or one child in the mix as it’s deemed as more acceptable in the workforce unfortunately.

I think you're right.

It's been like this in London for a long time but somehow people muddle through with low expectations of quality of life.

I don't think santa is the right example, kids can live without santa. Housing though.

There’s a clear choice though, increase birth rate or encourage immigration. We can’t support an aging population without enough people working. Given global warming is likely to trigger migration I’d have thought embracing migration is the obvious choice but it needs a PR job! I personally would like a retirement. 2 child tax benefit does seem even more ridiculous at this point though.

Or culling at a certain age? Will NHS waiting lists prioritise by age?

Very good point

The cost of housing just makes this ‘managing’ so much more extreme though.

Assuming 5 or 6 kids… most people are in a 2-3 bedroom house.

Most people today wouldn’t want to inflict that upon their children.

It’s not about material goods really. Certainly not cars on finance and foreign holidays - more school fees, support at university, house deposits etc.

@Narwhalsh small children grow. School bus pass was £40 a month. If you are English and on household income £60000 you are looking at £5500 contribution a year to bring them up to full student loan - that’s the required parental contribution. If you have them closely spaced you could be paying for more than one at university. Driving lessons were £70 a lesson.

The birth rate is dropping all over the world

Not just the UK.

Many people are realising there is more to life than popping out sprogs.

And I say this as a mother.

I am not anti-human, and think many humans are wonderful, despite some (powerful men) attempting to fuck up the planet, but seriously the world could do with a drop in the population of humans. If only a quarter of humans decided to reproduce for ten years, it would be a significant advantage to the earth.

@LaPalmaLlama yep

Yep. There are many published studies about this. One that I looked at for Nigeria (I think?) showed that there was a noticeable drop in birthrate when girls received an additional year of schooling.

New build houses are also too small... especially if you work from home! 2 decent bedrooms and a box/office. Not hood for a family of 4. Here in the south of England, that costs £350k, far outstripping the average wage of people with childbearing potential. So house or kids.... most people are going for none or 1....

If only a quarter of humans decided to reproduce for ten years, it would be a significant advantage to the earth.

No it wouldn’t. You want more young, less old if we are talking advantages.

Overpopulation is a Malthusian myth:

I live in an affluent part of London and have dcs at private school. Most families are very well-off and aren't struggling at all with COL, but almost all the families have just 1 or 2 children. So I don't think it's just about the cost, I think they like the calmer style of parenting that comes with an only, or 2 dc compared to 3+ dcs.

We have 2 and would have no problems affording school fees, holidays and extracurriculars for 1 or even 2 more. But I find it hard work and time-consuming, and both dcs do lots of extracurriculars, so having another in the mix would be painful to juggle. DH is very hands-on and we often split the dc up so each one gets to do the activity they want. Having a bigger family requires a different style of parenting, with more compromises and less one to one time, and having more money doesn't change that (even adding a nanny into the mix - because the dc really just want their parent's time). That doesn't suit us as a family.

If we want to be able to have more children then we need to make maternity pay better and childcare costs reduced.
We pay £2100 a month childcare (that's 1 child in school whose wrap around is 300).
My sister lives in Germany and her childcare is 300 a month.

How can you have a baby if you don’t even have a house and live with parents? Working people don’t earn enough to buy a home and poor people who have babies don’t even get a council house now as none are left, so why would people have a baby without a roof over their heads first?

Thats quite dark! I can’t see us choosing refusing older people healthcare over immigration.

How do we get 'less old people?' Pray tell.

many in those countries dont educate their girls. Once a country does that, their birth rate drops, even in a poor country. Women with access to birth control limit the number of children they have. Given choice they prefer to have less children that they can look after better, than more who are starving.

We have just had the same news come out in Australia too. It’s definitely a Western thing. It is seen as economically problematic because it means (without immigration) a reduced tax base and supply of skilled workers. Also, our countries are rapidly aging, which means many people are leaving the workforce and need to be supported with pensions, healthcare without the benefit of their tax payments.

Not so weird. I was about 5 or 6 when I decided. My uncle and parents were at a restaurant with me. There was a young mother and father with two young children…a baby and a two year old. Both were screaming, and the woman after trying to placate them bundled them up and took them outside. My uncle said…look what you have to look forward to. (He was single and he winked at me after his comment). I suddenly understood his point. Then read about the problems of overpopulation later, and that sealed it.