Nervous/anxious/scared about the Autumn budget 2024

[Cartwrightandson]

I know that we don't know any details. We have read or heard bits that might be incorrect or just plain wrong. I also know we won't know anything until Wednesday when Rachel Reeves publishes/announces the contents of the budget...

But what we do know...it's the first labour budget for over 14 years, we've had a conservative government, austerity, brexit, covid and cost of living/interest rate increase meaning our economy is not in a good place.

Our services/infrastructure haven't had much needed investment for a long time.
Councils are practically bankrupt, some already are. Schools, housing, NHS, social care and economy are all struggling..to remedy this requires money and this will need to come from higher taxes.

There's a 19 billion pound black hole and Labour have already removed the winter fuel allowance, showing they are willing do things that are unpopular or possibly controversial..the Labour manifesto said it wouldn't increase taxes, but now they are saying they have to.

They've already allocated money for Ukraine, teachers, train drivers, junior doctors, NHS staff ect

Keir said people who don't 'work' for their income (shares/savings/landlord income) aren't classed as working people and will be taxed..

Basically this budget is going to need to raise taxes to pay for investment in services. That much we do know. But where the cuts and the tax increase will be is unknown. I don't think anyone will be 'better off'...

Possibilities.. (note these are not absolute, I could be very wrong)

Inheritance tax changes
Fuel duty increase
Income tax increase
Social housing rent increase
Benefit cuts
No free universal prescription for over 60s
Change to tax free allowance
Removal of help to buy, right to buy and alterations to stamp duty
Pension age to increase
State pension to decrease?
Tuition fees to increase
Tax free pension allowance to be reduced
Isa/bond/shares/investments taxed

Who really knows...but I think the labour comms are possibly leaking information so that we are being drip fed so when the budget does happen we already know and are braced/prepared for it.

Or what is being leaked about the budget is really bad but when the budget happens we are relieved it wasn't as bad the leaks hinted at. But it is still painful but we are more accepting because it's not as bad as it could have been...if that makes sense.

You're not correct on that, not sure where you've picked that up. If you look at Starmer's own words pre GE.

This manifesto is that plan. Fully costed, fully funded – built on a rock of fiscal responsibility.

It is clearly about their manifesto. That's their problem currently, that lie and hence the plummeting polls. If people look outside mn and read commentary it's easy to get a sense of why that is.

The budget hadn't even been thought of yet so not sure where you've got that from. It has taken nearly 4 months to put together which is longer than most.

Yes. Their manifesto. Which said there wouldn’t be tax rises for PAYE at basic level or NI. It didn’t rule out anything else - in fact it indicated some tax changes. Why do you pretend they said they could do it with the figures in the last Tory budget? That’s just nonsense. You are brighter than this.

I find it very annoying when posters say "look outside mumsnet and read commentary" over and over and OVER again.

It is insulting to suggest that everyone else only follows politics via mumsnet.

Grrr.

I know. Infuriating, isn’t it? Maybe reading three newspapers with completely divergent views, listening to several podcasts and watching a number of different broadcast news outlets isn’t enough? I’m definitely not going to start reading The Mail though it might do my low blood pressure good!

What a finish, same to you. That pre GE lack of outline of any tax rises is the issue.

If you look at polling you'll see liar is polling high for a reason. And personal ratings are plummeting.

That's down to their mistakes and the contrast between pre GE and post. You don't get to obfuscate about fully funded and then go full 'harsh light of fiscal reality' and 'pain' without public backlash. That's easy to get, many people are pissed off.

As for people getting annoyed at what is being said off mn, so what? It's not all great for Labour atm as much as people post otherwise.

I wish I had a pound for every party, over a lot of years, that had promised tough medicine today and happiness tomorrow,

I don’t know who Labour think they are kidding. 🙄

It's the reality of polling and sentiment. The gap between these threads and that is bizarre at times.

But they did talk about tax rises. Isn’t that what all the frothing is about?

You said that before the diction too, I think - that outside Mumsnet people weren’t going to vote tactically to get Tories out. And yet…

'Frothing' is that for those who are impacted? and no, there was backlash against the suggestion there'd be tax rises in the debates and I recall talking about tax rises pre GE and the usual response would come back.

I can see why the ratings have tanked, and generally people are pissed off - well many are anyway

Well, I understood they would be raising some taxes to fund improvements, so I’m not sure why you didn’t. 🤷‍♀️

You must be thinking of another poster. You'll not find that post.

It was pretty obvious for some time pre GE who was going to win

Fair enough. My mistake.

I posted they would, I still had plenty of pro Labour backlash that it wouldn't be the case 🤷‍♀️

Some were adamant it would come from scrapping schemes and management

Obviously the lie from Labour was a better way to win, but that's why you now have tanking ratings.

I also work in the sector and I think there will be some increase, though not substantially so (so nowhere near enough to do much to mitigate the current situation).

As I recall (and I may obviously have missed something) the push back was on taxes affecting lower income levels. I don’t think there’s a lie. Obviously if things change in the budget I’ll admit I was wrong. I’m. Labour supporter and ex member, but I don’t agree with everything they do. I’m just prepared to wait until Ihave facts.

I'm depressed at the thought of Angela Raynor buying her council home but destroying my dream of one day owning mine it's been something I thought might be possible and now looks impossible with the changes they expect in the budget

Politicians can play it so when discussion pre GE was they will raise taxes people responded they haven't said that and using lines about 'working people' but generally obfuscation.

But it's also easy to see that the many of the public won't receive it well when they are hit and many people will say that was a lie.

And which sector people are in will make a difference. Obviously Labour are in now so happier to take the big hit on polling now rather than pre GE.

So maybe the electorate is wrong ? Public sentiment was for Brexit so obviously we really cannot be trusted to fathom any thing out can we ?
What’s your point anyway ? What do you want to happen ?

@UltraHorse I grew up in a council house in the 80s. My parents were too poor to even buy their council house. Somehow, under a Labour gov (went I uni in 1997-2000), I managed to get my foot on the property ladder at 24 and enjoyed being a teacher. I can’t imagine this happening right now, but I can never see that happening under a Tory gov. I’m looking to my children’s future.

They promised a government focused on growth. Now SME's have the employment rights bill, a reported rise of NMW of at least 6%, and a rise of employer NI of 2%.
It's devastating for small businesses. There have already been changes in behaviour re spending and hiring because there was such a huge gap between the election and the budget which was filled with doom and gloom, warnings and negativity.

There has yes, reported in the consumer confidence index drop.

Why can’t we wait to see what the budget brings? I don’t remember this anger back in 2011 when public sector pay was frozen. I just accepted it … same as when my pension was changed. Public services waited almost a decade before getting angry, not 100 days.

Someone above saying her parents couldn't buy a council house so nothings changed working class workers or not all that clever people . won't be able to buy their homes under labour now will they Personally id have loved not being stuck for life on the minimum wage not everyone's that lucky

Absolutely. Thing is the nay sayers have no alternative. Ask them and they don’t have an answer.
Mel Stride was banging on about how the Tories introduced the ‘new living minimum wage’. Erm, they were opposed to it when New Labour introduced it back in the day. But slowly slowly they lie and change the story knowing that half the electorate won’t have a clue and will react angrily to every click bait half story.