Nervous/anxious/scared about the Autumn budget 2024

[Cartwrightandson]

I know that we don't know any details. We have read or heard bits that might be incorrect or just plain wrong. I also know we won't know anything until Wednesday when Rachel Reeves publishes/announces the contents of the budget...

But what we do know...it's the first labour budget for over 14 years, we've had a conservative government, austerity, brexit, covid and cost of living/interest rate increase meaning our economy is not in a good place.

Our services/infrastructure haven't had much needed investment for a long time.
Councils are practically bankrupt, some already are. Schools, housing, NHS, social care and economy are all struggling..to remedy this requires money and this will need to come from higher taxes.

There's a 19 billion pound black hole and Labour have already removed the winter fuel allowance, showing they are willing do things that are unpopular or possibly controversial..the Labour manifesto said it wouldn't increase taxes, but now they are saying they have to.

They've already allocated money for Ukraine, teachers, train drivers, junior doctors, NHS staff ect

Keir said people who don't 'work' for their income (shares/savings/landlord income) aren't classed as working people and will be taxed..

Basically this budget is going to need to raise taxes to pay for investment in services. That much we do know. But where the cuts and the tax increase will be is unknown. I don't think anyone will be 'better off'...

Possibilities.. (note these are not absolute, I could be very wrong)

Inheritance tax changes
Fuel duty increase
Income tax increase
Social housing rent increase
Benefit cuts
No free universal prescription for over 60s
Change to tax free allowance
Removal of help to buy, right to buy and alterations to stamp duty
Pension age to increase
State pension to decrease?
Tuition fees to increase
Tax free pension allowance to be reduced
Isa/bond/shares/investments taxed

Who really knows...but I think the labour comms are possibly leaking information so that we are being drip fed so when the budget does happen we already know and are braced/prepared for it.

Or what is being leaked about the budget is really bad but when the budget happens we are relieved it wasn't as bad the leaks hinted at. But it is still painful but we are more accepting because it's not as bad as it could have been...if that makes sense.

Hooray! More of the same shower!

I suspect you may be wrong

OneLeminGuide

Modelling I have done indicates that a company in the service sector with significant numbers of part-time staff (often mothers with young families) will have an increase in pay costs of 12-14%. It’s genuinely crippling!

We’ll see, I suppose. Will be happy to come on and apologise if the economy hasn’t grown in 5 years.

Equally, I’ll be happy to apologise if the economy does boom following the budget, and my predictions for the damage it will do to health and social care are wide of the mark. I genuinely hope I am wrong!

Labour have made far more enemies than friends in their first few months in office. We’ll have to see how things work out, but if the budget leads to the situation I fear and expect, I’d be surprised if they win a second term. They may have a large majority, but their support is very shallow. It’s nothing like 1997. And remember the Tories had a big majority in 2019, and look how that turned out.

If you fly...and done on distance, yes. I mean significantly higher taxes (20%) foreign travel. It's a 'luxury' not a choice...

They may not win a second term, possibly.

But what makes you think that more of the same from the conservatives will get them back in?

I do t disagree with you there. It’s a luxury and bad for the planet so maybe that’s another one to consider alongside taxing cigarette and alcohol.

That doesn’t mean that private education isn’t a luxury too though.

(unless you are a SEN parent that is being badly let down by the state. In that case I believe the government should be paying for your private school place if they can’t cater for your child in mainstream)

I was trying to say that a lot of these things are choice, such as whether we decide to buy a flat or house (although I appreciate it's very hard for young people to get on the housing ladder), whether we eat out at restaurants or have take away.

Education I don't consider a luxury. That's why most countries do not tax education even if private. It's a choice.

And I have to say anyone who even supports the implementation from January is plain evil. That is certainly not looking out for the children in society. If it has to be introduced, do so gradually and not mid academic year.

If people want to use private schools especially if their child has special needs I think the option should be there People spend there money on private healthcare I don't think the government making it more difficult is fair

Tuition fees set to rise

So that's the student vote they've lost as well now.

Possibly. If so the Green Party will probably be the beneficiary.

But the students will only pay any more than the are now if they pay their loan off in full (so just the very highest earners).

Otherwise it’s still 9% of your salary over the baseline threashold for 40 years. Moving that from 30 years (a move from the previous government) will have a far greater impact on their pockets than this.

"I can’t believe I’m saying this, I want them back. At this point, they seem the lesser of two evils"

@OneLemonGuide I feel the same.

Both of you have extraordinarily short memories then.

Tuition fees have risen once since 2012. I don’t feel that a rise in rate with inflation is beyond the pale.

It is £285 extra a year. Hardly excessive and not enough to lose them the student vote, unless the Tories pledge to cut or abolish fees.

There’s a lot of smuggery on this thread.

VAT on private school fees? “Well serves you right for having money, and why should we care, doesn’t affect us.”

Increase in inheritance tax on farms? “Well poor didums, so you’ll only have £5m to inherit, doesn’t matter that the farm will probably be bought out by developers instead.”
Getting rid of the winter fuel allowance? “Well tough shit. Those pensioners are all worth millions, and I’m not one so why should I care.”
Increase in tuition fees? “Well it’s only an extra £285 a year, they should stop wining. Why should I care? I’m not a student.”

At some point the government are going to come after something which is relevant to you. And at this point nobody knows what it will be. Housing benefit? Single person’s tax allowance? Income tax? Fuel duty? There is absolutely going to be something, but don’t expect any sympathy from the groups you’ve stuck two fingers up at.

PS: I’m not affected by any of the above, but neither am I so up myself that I think that it’s alright as long as I’m not affected.

I think will come after the work shy next so that will be fun to watch.

Agree.

How do you define work shy? It is already pretty difficult to get UC if you are not actively looking for work (or already working), as I understand it.

If (like Oakeshott) you mean sick and disabled people, successive governments have "come after" them since 2010 so plus ça change

Well it’s only an extra £285 a year, they should stop wining. Why should I care? I’m not a student

Who said students should stop "wining"? I didn't. I just said it was not an excessive amount. Which it isn't.

Having been a teacher since 1988, I’ve had Tories come after things that matter to me for 14 years - and without benefiting anyone other themselves and their mates. I’m currently largely unaffected by this budget, yes - as are most ordinary people - but if I had to pay a bit more but it was going to fixing the mess we are in I would be fine about it.

Fun to watch? I think you need a new hobby.

Workers are ordinary people

As the Resolution Foundation says

James Smith, research director at the Resolution Foundation think tank which aims to improve living standards for low-to-middle income families, agreed.

"Even if it doesn't show up in pay packets from day one, it will eventually feed through to lower wages," he said.

"This is definitely a tax on working people, let's be very clear about that."

That's a big chunk of the employment market