Nervous/anxious/scared about the Autumn budget 2024

[Cartwrightandson]

I know that we don't know any details. We have read or heard bits that might be incorrect or just plain wrong. I also know we won't know anything until Wednesday when Rachel Reeves publishes/announces the contents of the budget...

But what we do know...it's the first labour budget for over 14 years, we've had a conservative government, austerity, brexit, covid and cost of living/interest rate increase meaning our economy is not in a good place.

Our services/infrastructure haven't had much needed investment for a long time.
Councils are practically bankrupt, some already are. Schools, housing, NHS, social care and economy are all struggling..to remedy this requires money and this will need to come from higher taxes.

There's a 19 billion pound black hole and Labour have already removed the winter fuel allowance, showing they are willing do things that are unpopular or possibly controversial..the Labour manifesto said it wouldn't increase taxes, but now they are saying they have to.

They've already allocated money for Ukraine, teachers, train drivers, junior doctors, NHS staff ect

Keir said people who don't 'work' for their income (shares/savings/landlord income) aren't classed as working people and will be taxed..

Basically this budget is going to need to raise taxes to pay for investment in services. That much we do know. But where the cuts and the tax increase will be is unknown. I don't think anyone will be 'better off'...

Possibilities.. (note these are not absolute, I could be very wrong)

Inheritance tax changes
Fuel duty increase
Income tax increase
Social housing rent increase
Benefit cuts
No free universal prescription for over 60s
Change to tax free allowance
Removal of help to buy, right to buy and alterations to stamp duty
Pension age to increase
State pension to decrease?
Tuition fees to increase
Tax free pension allowance to be reduced
Isa/bond/shares/investments taxed

Who really knows...but I think the labour comms are possibly leaking information so that we are being drip fed so when the budget does happen we already know and are braced/prepared for it.

Or what is being leaked about the budget is really bad but when the budget happens we are relieved it wasn't as bad the leaks hinted at. But it is still painful but we are more accepting because it's not as bad as it could have been...if that makes sense.

It is up overall, as are deaths. It’s policy. Oddly the latter barely gets coverage

Amazing the normalisation that some seem ok with

Overall for a few months? Like I said. Weather dependent. There’s no policy change to explain it (Rwanda wasn’t deterring anyone).
How do you feel about the backlog which is costing a fortune?

The ‘smash the gangs’ policy is causing more deaths - look up Amnesty International response on it and numbers per boat plus how much flimsier they are. This makes them unsafer. Demand is also up and profits.

It’s all talked about if not ignored. ‘Weather dependent’ is ignoring the above.

Sort out the NHS in it's entirity ? Totally unrealistic. Make it function a bit better for most people most of the time ? Might be possible.

What a load of bull.

25 percent of pensioners have a million pound asset. They are the richest generation. It was always going to go.

I think the cut off should be higher absolutely but Mafia tactics.

It's 'just' a budget. My hope is that it'll prove to be comprehensive, and the OBR review released on Wednesday will also steady confidence jitters.
The Truss debacle has made people more apprehensive about budgets. Reeves isn't foolhardy, she's not a Truss esque maverick out to rip up the rule book, so this budget could (should) improve overall confidence.
Theres not going to be anything earth shattering - she's not raising income tax and she's not reversing the cut in employee NI. My hope is that this budget will be the start of an enduring confidence from the markets, and interest rates edge steadily downwards.

It’s because the company already pay corporation tax so the basic rate of tax on the dividend of once was considered already paid. That was abolished and there is now a 8% and 32% rate plus corporation tax on top.

I don't really mind. There is this black hole. And to be fair, I agree that passive income isn't working.

@coffeeandteav obviously it's just someone's opinion but they believe they deliberately went for a vulnerable group to show financial powers that be that UK means business!!

I kmow pensioners that should never have had that fuel allowance, however I also know some right on that cusp who are worried because the cap has gone up as well.

Totally agree with the last bit. The cut off needs to be a lot higher.
As someone on just state pension less than 1k pcm will not get it.

Why do people who bang on about how entitled they are to their opinions so often a) wrong as to facts b) smug comfy Tories?

Weird. Did Kwateng’s budget cause so much angst ? Pensioners literally lost millions because of the damage to the economy, mortgages shot up. It beggars belief the fear mongering. And then you’ve got the drone of certain notorious posters who really aren’t affected banging on about immigration. What a mess.

Probably because he didn’t bang on about the cold light of fiscal doom and misery.

He didn’t have time to. No risk assessment, no consultation with the OBR, no thinking, just a rushed out catastrophic budget that spooked the markets and which everyone with a mortgage is still paying for.

Absolutely.

The PP was wondering why it didn’t cause the current levels of angst, and that was what my post was about.

Your post is neither here nor there.

There was almost certainly was angst and concern behind the scenes of Kwarteng's budgets - they just didn't publish it.

news.sky.com/story/amp/kwasi-kwarteng-was-warned-economy-worsened-significantly-but-went-ahead-with-mini-budget-12928466

Well yes. Why would he. His party caused it. Maybe the economy is in a mess, the infrastructure falling apart. Are Labour supposed to lie ?

People can see the reality with their own eyes. And obviously the Tories never banged on about New labour did they ?

Agreed. Likewise the fallout of Brexshit, another elephant in the room.

Budget messaging has been shite. All doom & gloom. Suffer now but good times will come. Can’t predict the future as there might be another Covid/Ukraine so taxes might have to go up again blah blah blah

The party of misery

Better than the party of lies, corruption, stick your head in the sand 🙄

So you’d rather they lied and produced a budget accordingly? It’s all sunshine and rainbows, the economy is booming and awash with money, tax cuts all round. Then what six months down the line?

I don’t think they should have lied, but think they really need to work on their communication. I don’t think anyone has ever expected the Budget to be sunshine or rainbows, but there was no need for KS to be quite so negative a couple of months ago - this is what really opened the door to so much unhelpful speculation.

Agreed. I think they absolutely would like them to lie. It’s like we’ve been lobotomised. When Hunt promised the cut to NI in the last budget, most economists scratched their heads in disbelief. Meanwhile we lapped it up and clamoured for tax cuts as well despite moaning about the state of the country. For an apparently educated nation, we are very deluded.
You can bet your bottom dollar that every thing this government does will be scrutinised to the nth degree. But the last 14 years will somehow be re fashioned into a golden age of prosperity.

Current polling will also reflect the switch from pre GE 'fully funded, fully costed' to 'pain' and 'harsh light of fiscal reality' doom

Generally public sentiment has reacted to that initial lie so it's not surprising many are pissed off with them

You keep saying that. You also keep ignoring the fact that ‘fully funded’ means ‘fully funded in the budget’.