Nervous/anxious/scared about the Autumn budget 2024

[Cartwrightandson]

I know that we don't know any details. We have read or heard bits that might be incorrect or just plain wrong. I also know we won't know anything until Wednesday when Rachel Reeves publishes/announces the contents of the budget...

But what we do know...it's the first labour budget for over 14 years, we've had a conservative government, austerity, brexit, covid and cost of living/interest rate increase meaning our economy is not in a good place.

Our services/infrastructure haven't had much needed investment for a long time.
Councils are practically bankrupt, some already are. Schools, housing, NHS, social care and economy are all struggling..to remedy this requires money and this will need to come from higher taxes.

There's a 19 billion pound black hole and Labour have already removed the winter fuel allowance, showing they are willing do things that are unpopular or possibly controversial..the Labour manifesto said it wouldn't increase taxes, but now they are saying they have to.

They've already allocated money for Ukraine, teachers, train drivers, junior doctors, NHS staff ect

Keir said people who don't 'work' for their income (shares/savings/landlord income) aren't classed as working people and will be taxed..

Basically this budget is going to need to raise taxes to pay for investment in services. That much we do know. But where the cuts and the tax increase will be is unknown. I don't think anyone will be 'better off'...

Possibilities.. (note these are not absolute, I could be very wrong)

Inheritance tax changes
Fuel duty increase
Income tax increase
Social housing rent increase
Benefit cuts
No free universal prescription for over 60s
Change to tax free allowance
Removal of help to buy, right to buy and alterations to stamp duty
Pension age to increase
State pension to decrease?
Tuition fees to increase
Tax free pension allowance to be reduced
Isa/bond/shares/investments taxed

Who really knows...but I think the labour comms are possibly leaking information so that we are being drip fed so when the budget does happen we already know and are braced/prepared for it.

Or what is being leaked about the budget is really bad but when the budget happens we are relieved it wasn't as bad the leaks hinted at. But it is still painful but we are more accepting because it's not as bad as it could have been...if that makes sense.

Income tax increase no. End to free prescriptions no. Change to tax free allowance no, it will stay the same which is in effect an increase. Pension age increase no. Pension decrease no. Everything else is possible/likely.

The repeated press conferences and statements about harsh light of fiscal reality and pain, weeks ago for that one, won't be helping. Why would people think pain is good? Although it probably is sector dependent so some will feel safer from that.

For your example the private sector had just been through massive redundancies over the couple of years before. Contraction and job losses.

If you hit the private sector it filters through to public as you saw then.

They need to raise taxes no ? Are your local services even adequate ?

@UltraHorse that was me. Grew up in one of the most deprived parts of the country. If it wasn’t for Labour I would still be there. I didn’t have to pay for uni, I had a bursary. If I was savy I should have bought my parents’ council house when I was 24 but I didn’t - I got out of poverty and moved on. This isn’t a brag. This is what life was like for people like me in the 2000s.

I am happy to pay a bit more to try and sort out the absolute shit show that public services have become after a decade of austerity under the Tories. I want to know an ambulance will come if my old dad has a heart attack so we all now need to pay to start fixing the system again. There is no choice, it's the only sensible option albeit it won't be popular

This makes it sounds like 2011 was awful and we have recovered. I would love our schools to be like in 2011 (and I thought it wasn’t the best then). Public sector workers will agree that austerity has harmed us - not just us personally, but what we see every day.

I would suggest not harming private sector growth, as much as it feels like public sector is immune with pay rises atm it can't last if policy hampers growth

Private sector growth seems to be doing pretty well - the UK attracted £63 billion investment a couple of weeks ago.

www.gov.uk/government/news/record-breaking-international-investment-summit-secures-63-billion-and-nearly-38000-jobs-for-the-uk

@EasternStandard Only asking as you seem knowledgeable in fiscal growth, how long could a government freeze public sector pay and not give pay rises? I have taught since 2000. I did an inflation calculator and I earn less than I did back in 2011. I’m not complaining as I can pay my bills being top of my pay scale (I do worry about my pension though). I am aware that we need to make public services an attractive career - as well as making those services work (which is why we accepted the freeze!). Aren’t public services as important as those who earn triple figures? I know they “pay my wages” but I’m sure I offer (and my colleagues) my worth to society?

Growth was good in the first half the year but flatlined around election time

It may change depends on policy impact

The £63 billion was two weeks ago!

I am relieved that it feels like grown ups are in charge now. They don't care as much about popularity but will do what is best for the country longer term. That is what I voted for, a party who will make themselves unpopular by making hard decisions for the right reasons.

The almost exclusively right wing press is scaremongering, as usual.
Don't buy into it! There is 14 years of tory damage and decimation of services to undo before we can begin to build things back up again.
We don't have long to wait to know....

A lot of people with various incomes have seen their outgoings shoot up, energy, mortgages etc. I do feel some people should pay a little more and others a lot more.

I do hope the NHS gets a huge cash injection to pay for support staff who often help run the show but are never mentioned. They’ve left in their droves piling more pressure on Dr’s and Nurses who are now picking it all up.

there is nothing anyone can do, I think just put your tin hat on and hope for the best.

I would hope if they do this they would make sure this doesn't put people off progressing, which if done right it wouldn't. Maybe similar approach that already exists with universal credit where you will always be better off overall by earning more from work.

Let’s face it the bar is very low and anything that goes towards improving public services is a good thing in my book. In fact I wish they hadn’t decided not to increase direct taxes - a penny on the rate of income tax would make a big difference.
I work, own a home without a mortgage and another property that is rented out with no mortgage (inherited). I pay tax and would happily pay more.
Im more concerned about the possible election of Donald Trump.

A lot of SME's have made the decision to sell up in fear of the budget. There will be no incentive for anyone to start a business with a Labour Government. Solicitors have been working through the night for weeks making sure they get agreements across the line by midnight tonight.

I also know people that have worked hard for their money, regardless of what the Labour idiots define as a working person, made good money too. They have been advised by their financial advisor to move their money off shore before the budget. Labour have no idea the impact they are having on the very people that generate wealth for the country and employ people.

If anyone read the article on the BBC today, how can someone on benefits be earning £33,000 a year without a worry in the world whilst someone working full time is struggling. Under a Labour Government, this will only get worse. If they continue to target the higher earners paying the most in to the system already, most will leave and there will be no one paying in. That won't do the country any good at all.

Are they on DLA? That isn't means tested.

33k? Are you referring to the woman whose rent is half her benefits because she lives in Brighton and can not work due to her disability?

Just looking at the first two headline forecasts in the OBR documents (link from your link);

The main conclusions of our updated forecast and latest data scenarios are:

Inflation is forecast to peak at 13.5 per cent in January 2023

Inflation peaked at 11.1% in October 2022 - it was 10.1% in January 2023.

The economy is expected to enter a year-long recession in the final quarter of 2022, with real GDP falling by 2 per cent in 2023.

We didn't have a year long recession, GDP didn't fall by 2% in 2023 - in fact GDP increased slightly for 2023 overall.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2024/oct/29/martin-rowson-on-labours-halloween-week-budget-cartoon

When you say ‘public sector pay freeze’ do you mean you got no pay rise whatsoever, or a pay rise but it was at or below inflation?

Because in the private sector pay freeze means just that. Your pay does not increase whatsoever. When times were tough with my (private sector) employer they simply froze pay completely. For 5 years. No one got a pay increase. There were mass redundancies at rival firms though so no one left.

You often hear people talk of a ‘pay freeze’ in the public sector when what they mean a pay rise at or below inflation and yes it’s not great, but it’s something. it takes away the sympathy of private sector workers.

I've just had a very quick look at the manifesto;

Labour will not increase taxes on working people, which is why we will not increase National Insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of Income Tax, or VAT.

cardibach
‘fully funded’ means ‘fully funded in the budget’

Why did Labour bother with a manifesto costs breakdown then?

https://labourlist.org/2024/06/labour-manifesto-2024-costs-breakdown-tax-borrowing/

It doesn't mean in the budget. I agree with you

KS couldn't have isolated it more clearly in the pre GE speech I quoted from that it meant manifesto

This manifesto is that plan. Fully costed, fully funded – built on a rock of fiscal responsibility.