It gets complicated.
You have to assume that a significant proportion of ELCS would have otherwise resulted in difficult births out of hours anyway. So you probably are reducing the number of EMCS but increasing the number of ELCS. And making them less risky and more plannable in terms of staffing and theatre staff.
To follow this, you have to understand NICE argue that you ultimately hit a tipping point where ELCS births become cheaper than planned vbs if you have a high enough ELCS rate. This isn't something they are in favour of.
It's cheaper to fund per birth during the daytime. It is harder to recruit out of hours staff. But cost wise the more ELCS you do, the lower it becomes per birth because more babies are born at more convenient times and theatres are more efficient in terms of time. This does mean you can in theory reduce our of hours staffing because there then becomes excessive staffing because demand during these hours becomes lower.
You could argue that even if previously you had two overnight Obs to deal with more patients you'd still have the same risk of there being a third patient who needs one at the same time. Because great demand is at certain times and this policy effectively flattens demand across the night into a more manageable pattern for managers and front line staff..
The same applies during the day if you have lots of patients lined up for theatre and an unbooked EMCS come up even if you now have higher staffing levels. Previously you probably wouldn't have staff during the day. It's a question of using ELCS to make staffing rotas more plannable and predictable and therefore make the budget stretch further. (And more efficient).
Given the current climate my concern wouldn't be about this pattern meaning more women are vulnerable to low staffing rates, the opposite is more probable.
The worry is perhaps now that individual hospitals might be getting around really low staffing rates by increasing ELCS to suit their budgets and recruiting crisis. Tqhe hours are better and staff retention improves.... It's a temptation.
... and this isn't in the best interests of individual women. The biggest issue probably isn't for the current pregnancy. The risks are more about subsequent pregnancies and how an ELCS possibly wasn't the best option for certain lower risk groups (such as those who want a large family)
As I say my concerns revolve around appropriate care. That means women get an ELCS if appropriate not because it suits strained budgets.