to suggest that every single parent with a child at private school apply for a state school place asap?

[sarjd]

let's see how that works.

The IFS figures were based on numbers falling 3-7%. They fell 3% last year and that’s before the policy is introduced. It won’t take much more to mean that the policy ends up costing the taxpayer money.

They are not all going to move their children

“Total tax take would be about the same as a flat 20% on everything but the more "basic" schools that don't do the luxury end would get squeezed less and Eton etc much more.”

Eton will never be squeezed. They have 700 million plus of Endowment funds that would pay the fees for half the school in any event and half of India and China rich list happy to pay 150k tomorrow if you let their children in. And they would probably make some more money by doing online teaching to half of upper middle class India and China too and recruiting loads of teachers to do so.
This constant going on about Eton just because Bojo went there is tedious. He went to Oxford as well. Nobody there is embarrassed about it.
And Farage did not, unsurprisingly, even make it to university after Dulwich College.
The top private schools have such strong brands and clout no Government will get to them in any event. You will just harm the smaller players and weaker parent groups.

Well if your former classmates called it that then it's good you are being removed from such totally unpleasant people.

I would be appalled if my children spoke rudely about state schools or the children who attend them

That is calculated assuming that 100% of the parents who stop paying fees will keep up the same spending levels, and will spend it on UK goods eligible for UK tax. It's far more likely that they will channel the saved fee money into paying for (untaxed) private top-up tuition and extracurriculars for their child, top up their pension or drop their 2nd job/go part time if their income requirements have just dropped by £18k per child.

The real effects though won't be seen for 3-4 years as most of the dropping out from private will happen at natural transition points at end of y2, y6, y8 and y11 rather than in a big crash as soon as the policy is in place.

@Araminta1003 that's precisely the point. The market for places at Eton won't blink at the price rise. You could raise the same total revenue by putting a lot more of the burden onto the india and china rich-list and less onto the parents who were just desperate to find a school that their neurodiverse child could survive in.

Me? I have far too many kids to put through private 😁 I'm just considering how many will migrate over versus how many say they will. Between the upheaval and prejudices, I think most will stay put by an possible means.

I agree. State schools are talked about by so many (on here at least, I haven't heard it from friends at the school gate) in such horrified tones that I imagine most will suddenly find a way to tighten their belts

Yes, I think the mass exodus that private school parents want us to believe will happen is unlikely to take place. Few will leave and there are places in State schools for them.

Children with a particular school named on their EHCP are usually in the first priority group (along with LAC)

If you have a child with significant SEN, who you think will be joining state education, start applying for the EHCP as soon as possible. Even if you don't need it for admission, it will outline what additional support will be provided in school and funded by the LA.

Personally I don’t see why anyone would sign up to private schools in this climate though? With an actual penalty from the Government and hate from the public? Why would you do that to your own DCs? When there is a free option available and you can top it up and have a more relaxed life?

I agree those already there will do whatever they can to continue. But the pipeline will freeze up for all but the most elite schools so eventually the minor schools will collapse. And those with kids at small schools may move preemptively due to the fact that there is a big risk the school won’t survive and there will be no places left over for their own DCs. It is simply too risky?

@wombat15

I agree, I think the IFS numbers are actually a little over cooked.

The much discussed mythical private school parent who is stretched to the limit, lives in a tumbledown house in an area serviced by terrible schools, who works two jobs whilst driving a car from the 1970s, wearing second hand clothing and eating foraged food, doesn't really exist.

99.99% of PE parents will just rearrange their finances accordingly.

" With an actual penalty from the Government and hate from the public?"

It isn't a penalty and the public aren't expressing hate.

What you are doing is making out that a very privileged section of society are being persecuted.

They aren't.

Yes, they are being singled out because no other country in the whole world taxes private education at 20 per cent. So it looks like a privilege penalty. It does not make sense to send your DC into that. When there are perfectly good options available, tutoring on tap online and in person and lots of clubs you can top up with.

Lots of average kids have to put up with the upheaval of moving school at the same time that they move house or because they're getting bullied so badly they're cracking up etc.

So I don't feel bad for some rich kids that will get to stay in the same naice haise and go to a slightly to much less naice school, probably supplemented by tutors and so on.

I think a small minority of parents will perhaps conclude that they can no longer afford private education. Which isn't a problem really, as state school numbers are falling anyway.

I very much doubt that the increase in cost will have a substantial impact in the number of families going private. Fees have gone up way above the rate of inflation over the years and it hasn't really impacted on the overall size of the sector.

As for hate from the public? I don't think this is new, but I also don't think it's that widespread. Most people really don't care that much which school you went to, as long as you are a decent human being. The thing that people do dislike is the arrogance of people who are totally unaware of their own privilege (regardless of what type of school they attended), but it's perfectly possible to send your kids to private schools and teach them not to be arrogant twats, so I doubt that this would be a real concern for many prospective private school parents.

Unfortunately, you've failed to factor in that a large number of parents with pupils in private schools will simply use ways to pay less tax in order to offset the increased amount of VAT they will be paying on school fees so their overall contribution to the economy will be the same. There are many tax loopholes that the Labour party has no hope in hell of ever closing.

@Lily193

They won't do that. the majority are on PAYE.

Keep threatening everyone though, really, it totally undermines your cause.

Absolutely. Although I'd suggest newcomers brace for the sharp elbowed maneuvering of motivated parents in state to secure those resources. May the odds be ever in your favour.

You have no absolutely no idea about anyone's financial circumstances. I don't have children at private school so no cause to fight.😉

I am not sure @Shortfatsuit . I think a lot of people do the Maths and look at all the factors. Just like we did when we decided on state education.

I do not think there are still 6% who do private school for legacy and cultural reasons anymore. I think it is naive to assume that. So I suspect we shall see only 2-3% in the private sector within 10 years (and that at secondary level). Primary will all but dry up. Whilst people on here go on about childcare in prep schools, their holidays are actually far longer and our state primary provides really excellent and after school club options. That will have to become more common place.

Well, I hope you're right. I think the more families using the state sector, the better, personally. But I am not that optimistic. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Well I'm sure there'll be plenty that claim they only started tax-dodging after they had to pay VAT on school fees. ;)

There is no more "hate" from the public than there has ever been.

Yes of course, I'm not saying no one is doing that already but I think it will certainly increase. Even people on PAYE will probably have income from other sources that they'll be looking to minimise paying tax on.