To not see how the gov will make any money from taxing private schools?

[AngryHedgehog]

All the other threads seem to have descended into bunfighting over the ethics of the policy, yet I'm not really understanding how this stands to benefit the government as surely they'll be footing the bill for all the kids that move to state schools?

As a disclaimer, I don't have kids and wouldn't be able to afford to privately educate them even if I did, despite earning a half decent salary.

I'm reading that it costs around £7k per pupil per term, so it would take the VAT from around four families to fund each additional child moving to state education.

Given that this may be 4/10 kids in private education moving to state schooling, I don't see how this doesn't create a net loss as there will only be 50% more kids left in private education and there needs to be multiple times that for the VAT increase to foot the bill.

Surely I'm missing something here?

So you are agreeing that you were wrong and incomes of private school parents is highly variable?

@Sloejelly , Local Authorities will not like paying the VAT on those fees, and will argue for relief.

Why do you keep ignoring the point about PED though?

This is almost always the most important factor that shows whether an indirect tax change will change behaviour.

I'm fairly certain the vast majority of people who use private schooling see it as a necessity, and that whist it might be annoying, the percentage of income taken up by the change is not large. This indicates that parents will pay it rather than make the mass behavioural changes people are predicting on here.

"So you are agreeing that you were wrong and incomes of private school parents is highly variable"

Nope, i'm stating that the way you used it this is incorrect, they aren't highly variable in terms of the decile which they fit into. Almost all are in the top income decile.

But yes, focus on the semantics of the point because the rest of your argument failed

‘Flowers don’t come in a range of colours because when I use the categories ‘red’ and ‘other colours’ the flowers that aren’t red just fall into one category’

But 90% would be the vast majority. If ten per cent of children are moved to the state sector, this policy doesn’t raise any revenue, damages children’s education in the process and results in some teachers and support staff losing their jobs. What for? Ideology?

And you still haven’t explained why you were talking about the choice between heating and eating that some people are facing at the moment and how it is relevant to this policy. You accuse me of strawmen arguments but are not willing (or able) to explain why you refer to those that are suffering when we discuss the justifications for this policy.

And as a PP pointed out, if parents are cutting spending elsewhere this would reduce the amount of VAT the treasury receives from that spend.

@Aladdinzane you sound incredibly uneducated in your arguments and bitter.

You are right, people don't want to pay the extra. They will though, and no they won't move schools, no they won't drive house prices in good catchments up, and no they won't leave the country

@Aladdinzane how do you know all this for certain? You are obviously anti private schools so I guess you don’t mix much with private school parents so where on earth are you getting this opinion from?

I think on the last sentence, we’ll have to agree to disagree, and only time will tell.

I’ve been through many fee increases without blinking (as your data suggested), but this is the first time I’ve seen a lot of resentment and reconsideration among the parents. Not because of affordability but rather the psychological impact of it all - that it feels punitive. The tone also doesn’t help, especially that there will be little consideration for phasing in and minimising disruption, etc.

Last year our prep school saw a significant uptake of state space - like 80% (we’re in catchment of a good one), whereas it used to be half or less. This year is looking the same way. I haven’t seen anything like it.

I acknowledge that this is anecdotal to me, but my whole point is simply that I would love proper tracking of impact and accountability of this policy.

@Barbadossunset

I'm not anti private schools at all, I'm anti the special pleading that some of the parents do.

Seriously, if you want to privately educate your children that's fine, and I do have friends and family that do so, what I can't abide is the sniping and veiled threats from the parents about how they will make other children suffer. I also can't stand the moralising of some private school parents who make the arguments that their choice is down to their own herculean efforts of working harder than everyone else and their significantly superior financial acumen.

As said, most won't remove their kids.

I'm not anti private schools at all, I'm anti the special pleading that some of the parents do

Ok fair enough, but how do know that most won’t remove their children?
You may be right - it will be interesting to revisit this topic in a couple of years.

I don’t see veiled threats about making other children suffer. It will impact some children in state schools. It is happening already. Every pupil that has been offered a state grammar school place at my DC’s private is taking it up this year. In other years, many people stick with the all through private even when offered a grammar place. There is a change in behaviour. That’s not a threat, for my DC’s school it is a fact that people are choosing the state option which means that children whose only option was state lose out if they are on the waiting list. That’s one of the reasons people believe it is a stupid policy. People can be concerned about their own children and others at the same time. It’s not an either or.

All the veiled threats that private school parents will now move into the areas that have the best schools ( however in reality they already live in the best catchments), take places from other children who would normally get them, take up the grammar places, parents will do XYZ in order to make sure that they don't pay tax.

All of those are threats.

Anecdotes are not useful, every private school parent I know will just swallow the increases and very little will change regarding their lifestyles.

This is what the vast majority of parents will do, but the vocal on here like to pretend this policy is going to be detrimental to state school kids.

It isn't.

We already live in an area with Grammars and a super comp. We still go private, I can wait it out two years til year 6 and year 9. Will get on the waiting lists I guess and start prepping the year 4 kid for Grammar.

Anecdotes are not useful, every private school parent I know will just swallow the increases

That’s just your anecdotes, which are not useful.

And you know every private school parent in the UK?! I know a lot and some can afford it and some cannot. It also changes from one school to another. There are a couple of smallish private schools near me (I have friends with DC at both of them) and they are full of children who were previously failed by the state system. The schools have very small reserves and are operating at narrow margins. This policy will definitely impact them and I am doubtful that both will survive. One of my friends is a social worker and the other is a state school teacher so, yes, this policy is definitely impacting the “rich”
and the “elite”!

@EasternStandard You missed the joke there.

You really think most will remove their children for an extra £69 a week?
Maybe those parents do not value private education as much as they think they do?

Sorry accidentally quoted the wrong comment.

Anecdotes are not useful, every private school parent I know will just swallow the increases and very little will change regarding their lifestyles.

Claims anecdotes are not useful then goes on to make one in the very same sentence in the hope of proving their point...🙄

Grammar school heads would not be shouting their concerns from the rooftops if there were going to be no impact. Labour are relying on one (outdated) study to try support the policy. Behaviour has already changed to oppose the predictions made in that report. There is no further evidence. When Greece did try to implement this approach, the state sector was impacted significantly to its detriment.

Ha really. I think you may have misstepped on that one

@morechocolateneededtoday

Another one who missed the joke.

Those who do not agree with private schools will be happy then if most are going to close down. Who knew abolishing a tax break could destroy a sector so thoroughly?

If multiple posters 'missed' the joke, it clearly was a pretty poor one to start with!

Anyway, whether you judge them as threats or not, private school parents will do what is best for their families and their children will be just fine. They come from households which prioritise education and all evidence confirms this achieves best outcomes later in life.

As I have said before, VAT or no VAT, we are moving to state for secondary, it is no threat as we have already moved house for it. It is better for me to work less, DH to put more in pension, save for uni/house deposits and children to be in an excellent state school. The private primary will have given 7 years career progression I would not otherwise have got