To not see how the gov will make any money from taxing private schools?

[AngryHedgehog]

All the other threads seem to have descended into bunfighting over the ethics of the policy, yet I'm not really understanding how this stands to benefit the government as surely they'll be footing the bill for all the kids that move to state schools?

As a disclaimer, I don't have kids and wouldn't be able to afford to privately educate them even if I did, despite earning a half decent salary.

I'm reading that it costs around £7k per pupil per term, so it would take the VAT from around four families to fund each additional child moving to state education.

Given that this may be 4/10 kids in private education moving to state schooling, I don't see how this doesn't create a net loss as there will only be 50% more kids left in private education and there needs to be multiple times that for the VAT increase to foot the bill.

Surely I'm missing something here?

But you could find savings or make changes to increase your monthly budget if you wanted to. It’s a choice. You have a choice.

Apologies if I am the only woman in UK who doesn't know this.
Do we know the legal principles that Sir Keir is going to use to levy the tax on Private Schools?
As I understand it: They are excused VAT only because they are charities.
If they redefine what is a charity who else will be caught?
The National Trust is a charity so is the local heritage railway and some theatre groups. All describe how they are preserving and promoting things that are beneficial to us all by giving us a better understanding of history or art.

https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/19306048.oxfords-bullingdon-club-shocking-moments/

Also, our previous PE school is known for its seniors taking illegal drugs. That’s true of lots of PE schools because they have the money.

Your view of state schools and kids from lower socioeconomic groups is pretty abhorrent. We used PE throughout nursery and primary and shifted to state school due to a move. It is nothing like you are painting. I also work with families from all of the local state and private schools and I don’t recognise your description of state school.

@Aladdinzane this genuinely isn’t what I’m hearing, there is a lot of people who will leave immediately. There are others who will ride it out for a year or two then leave at a point, Year 7 or Year 9. That’s our intention.

@LaceyLou82 you will be a tiny minority.

The actual increase is about 69 pounds a week per students. I'd wager 99% of private school parents will just swallow that, and cut their cloth accordingly.

As said, it won't cause anything like the problems that private school parents are threatening to right now, it just won't. It is funny to watch them threaten the rest of us to protect their privilege.

Whether or not it makes any money remains to be seen. It's failed in other European countries and people, as always, think we're worse off here. The French government actually subsidise many private schools and pay the teacher salaries so this brings fees down and in other countries you get an allowance for schooling, which you are free to spend as you please. This would seem fairer but I can't ever see that happening here.

What I don't like about the policy is the way it's already creating a 'them' and 'us' divide and playing in to the 'have' and 'have not' tropes. Everyone has a budget. You wouldn't say well you can afford that school trip just have one less takeaway a week but it's ok to say poor Tarquin will have to miss pony club. Gross stereotypes are really coming out from both sides and it doesn't help anyone.

Nope we can’t- we can’t earn more or magic savings?! Any other ideas as you seem hot on our household budget 🤣🤣🤣

And if those kids do go to the decent school (as they would be in the catchment), that’s another place at the decent school that is unavailable for another child (who lives out of catchment).

Utter nonsense for some people and you know it. Many people are being pushed to the edge of their budgets due to the cost of living crisis including people on higher incomes. Not everyone can suddenly find an extra £4 -5k after tax.

@Iwishicouldflyhigh

More threats eh? But then in reality, the number of children not going privately who would have otherwise is so small its going to be negligible.

You are sooooo wrong in your assumption. How many times do yiu have to read post after post from GP’s , etc etc (ie not ‘rich’) who cannot affford an extra 5k a year. Myself included. We are very comfortable, but 15k (we have 3) a year…..absolutely no chance.

we have taken the decision to delay our youngest starting this year due to this policy….so that’s one less place in our oversubscribed primary.

@Dibblydoodahdah oh please, lets not pretend that people who have, on average, 18 K to spend on their child's education annually are struggling because of the cost of living crisis. They've made financial decisions which influence their discretionary spending, and they'll be able to make decisions which will allow them to find the small extra needed once VAT is introduced.

This framing re ‘threats’ is strange

People will make different choices and do stuff like move to best state.

If you don’t want that then it’s down to the policy you are keen on

I'm just going to say QED

@Iwishicouldflyhigh

"Myself included. We are very comfortable, but 15k (we have 3) a year…..absolutely no chance."

Where is this figure of 15k increase coming from? Are you paying over 25k for all 3 children at the minute ( as 20 percent would mean a 5k increase). I'm sure you'll be able to find a way to pay for it, after all you are currently spending 75k, which is more than double the median household income.

@EasternStandard No, framing it as threats is not strange, it is exactly that, very similar to when people threaten to leave the country due to tax policies.

The vast majority of students won't leave the private system in the first place, but the veiled threat of a poorer kid else missing out because private school students get the place is made often.

You are wrong. Our mortgage, bills and food costs have gone up by £14k per year. We will just about make the VAT cost but not everyone will be able to. And it’s not as easy as releasing equity from your house - which was our back up plan when this policy was first mooted back in 2019. Lending criteria and the housing market has changed significantly since then. Based on our income and outgoings in 2019 we should have been able to pay the VAT comfortably but a lot has changed since 2019. There will be some parents at my DC’s school who will easily be able to afford it (e.g. premiership footballer) but there will be others who won’t (state school teachers). There’s a very wide range of incomes at many private schools.

@Dibblydoodahdah

"You are wrong"

I'm really not, whilst you have had big increases in costs you are not "struggling" you aren't choosing between heating and eating, you aren't at risk of eviction because you can't keep up with the rent. You have options to fund your discretionary non-essential spending.

" There’s a very wide range of incomes at many private schools."

The data on household income in private schools shows this to be untrue.

It is not to do with their charitable status, which will remain. In terms of legal principles - I am guessing that will be what he will establish through new legislation/changes to current legislation.

You have no basis beyond sticking to your steadfast belief on what people can spend or what they will do

You are assured you know more about them than they do, that’s confident but not really useful

"You have no basis beyond sticking to your steadfast belief on what people can spend or what they will do"

Except for the studies that show that the number of students leaving will be minimal? Except for the evidence that shows what income decline the huge majority of private school households are in?

This final piece of data makes me VERY confident that a small increase in price will not cause a large drop in demand.

Private education has a highly inelastic PED :)

How ? Honestly how? We drive one car, we don’t have an expensive holiday, we have an average house…..because we choose to spend our money on our children’s education. We have a finite budget like most people…..so rather that shoving lots in pensions, having 5 star holidays and multiple cars, we instead buy education.

Except for the studies that show that the number of students leaving will be minimal?

Can you link these studies? I have only seen assumptions (eg IFS) not actual studies involving the population of interest.

I would love for this data to be properly tracked and released - over time, and also compared to when the idea was first announced. I think there’s a mixture of some people already leaving, some people planning to leave after the current key stage, and others not affected at all. I feel we’re all guessing here based on anecdotes - which is understandable since there has been nothing like it. However, accountability is important regardless of your stance on this issue.

As a private school parent, I might add that even though we’ve seen fee increases every year, this VAT feels punitive and it does make us reassess our life choices. Even if people can afford it, it doesn’t mean that they will take this on. Good state schools + cutting work hours, ploughing more money into pension, etc are great options.

@Itsjustlikethat we can look at the data over the last decade where there have been increases in fees of about 50% and see that the number of students attending private schools in the UK has actually increased.

Yes ploughing more money into pensions, whilst having the option of good state schools ( in the area you already live of course because there will be no mass movement of people into these catchments). But lets be honest about it, most people will keep their children in private schools, the vast majority of those threatening to leave will not do so.