To think pronatalists are on to something?

[Carebearsonmybed]

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/article/2024/may/25/american-pronatalists-malcolm-and-simone-collins?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

I don't agree with everything this couple say or do but I do think we are approaching a demographic timebomb when the global human population starts to drop in 50 years time.

Most women probably expect to have more DCs at 20 than they end up having by 45. What can we do to get the UK birth rate to replacement rate of c 2.5 so we don't have a crisis of elderly people without enough workers to pay for or provide care and subsidence?

Don't be absurd. Just because we're no longer on a population explosion pathway doesn't equate to extinction.

The population will be reduced to a more sustainable level until we figure out how to get off this planet and colonise others, with more resources.

BTW, something similar already happened at least once, with black death and discovery of Americas. We're hardly extinction now, aren't we?

I just read this article and came straight onto Mumsnet to see what people had to say. I DID NOT EXPECT that the hot take would be - ooh yeah something to consider in all this ladies.

for anyone who hasn’t read the article (spoilers….) dad smacks a small kid in the face in front of a journalist and thinks nothing of it. I don’t have a GREAT deal of confidence the screening the did to select embryos for intelligence is going to make up for the shit parenting.

So you want everyone to be breeding multiple kids just to look after and fund the care of the growing elderly population? No thanks…

Anyway, AI will take over much of the human care work, as well as many many other jobs. There is very little that can’t be done better by a robot, so actually a massive decline in the human population will be inevitable when you factor in global environmental catastrophes, water shortages, forest fires, declining soil fertility. We reached the earths caring capacity a few Billion people ago, and nature will put things right one way or another.

I just came from that thread too!

Society hates to do anything to help women/mothers but still expects them to have the DCs that are then expected to pay for everyone's else's old age.

(It's not just about pensions. It's social care. A&E admissions. Housing)

Children are necessary for ALL of society, they aren't an individual indulgence of the parents.

@thecatsthecats I agree 100% with a shorter working week.

I wish some politicians would come out in support of a standard 30 hour week.

They have a 35 hour cap in France, why can't we have that too?

Just read that article. Those poor kids going around with iPads around their necks. They won’t even heat the House for them.

They are weirdos but have a point.

its already widely known birth rate is a time bomb.

the expense and difficulty of having children is a huge factor.

due to economics people “have” to wait until later and thus have fewer children.

i saw such an interesting YouTube video on this.
the channel is two guys and their interviewed an economist about it. The trend started in Japan who are further ahead but it is going to be pretty catastrophic for all western societies.

i predict uk will move to universal basic income at some point

I read that in South Korea the birth rate is so low they could be almost extinct in four generations. Obviously they aren’t solving this problem by making it easier for women 🙄

I don't get why you think a "crisis of eldery people" is going to be the biggest issue we face in coming decades. You're looking at the wrong problem.

The fact is that the planet cannot support an ever-growing global population, in terms of fresh water availability and land needed for food production. The ONLY sensible solution, especially given the climate crisis that's well underway and is impacting food production globally already, is to discuss global population reduction - but nobody wants to because it would be political suicide.

If you're interested in a short, informative read, try a book called Ten Billion by Stephen Emmott for something that may provide you a different view.

That's only a short-term fix - fertility rates among immigrant groups typically adjust to the level of the host country.

Yep!

And that's actually quite an important part of their point. Odd as they are, they're not wrong that secular rationalist people like them are having many fewer kids than the more religious. That some values are much more likely to be transmitted to a next generation than others.

@FluentRubyDog

Extinction is inevitable if the population continues to decline.

Back in 2004 the UN predicted the 2300 global population could be as low as 2.3 billion and falling. We are at a higher point on that prediction atm but birth rates have decreased faster than anyone predicted so the downward curve will be steeper than they predicted.

https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/files/documents/2020/Jan/un20022worldpopulationnto_2300.pdf

It won't be a desolate planet. The point is that humanity dying out might allow the planet to regenerate and recover from all the harm we've done. No humans present doesn't equal desolation.

Oh ffs humans aren’t going to go extinct

@happybluefern Yes this particular couples parenting is not what I'd ever endorse. I wasn't surprised they'd been assessed by social services.

It's more about their overall philosophy about being positive about wanting to parent more than 2.4 DCs.

The OP on that thread was being wildly unrealistic, but you're not wrong.

Honestly?

We sort of need to accept that the transition to lower population growth will be uncomfortable, but allow it to happen. Younger people will need to be more involved- instead of just children caring for elderly grandparents, grandchildren will need to help. Also - we will have to pragmatic and draw a line regarding medical treatment to prolongue the lives of people in poor health. We cannot and should not live forever

Ps we do need children but we can't assume indefinite population growth. Stabilising is hard but necessary.

Did you read this OP

Malcolm sees South Korea as a vision of our near future: the problem is most acute in countries that are “technophilic, pluralistic, educated, where women have rights”.

Damn women for having rights!

There’s a pretty big gulf between - would be nice if I could have 3 kids - and - I am willing to have Caesarean after caesarean, factoring that I will likely haemorrhage at some Point which could put my life at risk, until I have at least 7 children who neither me or my husband actually want to look after or parent so we get some neighbours to do it or use physical punishment because we don’t know how to do anything else.

Great post. Totally agree.

I've read it.

A lot of previous predictions are out of date already because the global birth rate has dropped further and faster than anyone anticipated.

Extinction is my primary concern. However bad people are I want humans to continue to exist until the next city sized meteor hits Earth.

The dependency ratio (working age population 16-64 to the dependent population 0-15, 65+) will be a more immediate source of suffering to people who have already been born.

As a society we won't be able to afford care home costs of £100s pwk and hospital costs of £1000s pwk when 1 in 3 people are over 65.

What on earth makes you think it’d be desolate? If we were all wiped out tomorrow by some epidemic, plants would take over. You’ve only got to look at how weeds manage to break through concrete in a short time. A large petrol station forecourt near us was left untouched for some time before redevelopment - within a couple of years you could hardly see the concrete for a forest of flourishing green plant life.

It's true that historically and in the present the more educated women are both within and between countries, the fewer DCs they have.

The way to look forward positively is to think up ways to encourage highly educated women to have 2-5 DCs rather than 0-2.

Childcare policies don't seem to work? 🤷‍♀️

But it wouldn’t last forever anyway. If humans were gone, the earth would go through its cycles and there would be many extinction cycles. So why are you so precious about this one? (I am precious about it because humans can thrive in this one. But you have no particular reason to care)