To think good school places will be even harder to find next year because of the VAT on school fees

[Nesca1]

We are are looking at secondary schools for DS. We have our eye on a decent school bang in the middle of a solid middle class area . The school is always over subscribed; this year we would have gotten a place but last year we would have missed out because of how far we are from the school.
Usually, the school offers places to children living 1600m away, last year it was 1400m due to a large number of sibling applications.

Due to the whole VAT issue, i think more parents from the local area are going to be sending their kids to this school, rather than sending them to private schools.

Is this a reasonable assumption? I don't think parents will wait for the policy to be enacted, but they will move their year 6 children into this school.

Apropos of overseas: I have noticed a big increase in the number of big, famous private schools establishing branch schools out here in Asia, like Rugby, Harrow and so on. I think that is one way that some private schools are creating new revenue streams.

If anyone wants some concrete evidence of impact, come September we can make a freedom of information request to all grammar schools and see if there are more private school prep kids in them joining in Year 7 or not compared to the last few years. As we are seeing this right now pan out in London, in front of my own eyes, that will be proper evidence right before the election. Those kids actually need to start (as in the past many then went private after all). That should be evidence right before the election and am sure the media will have a field day with it.

There won't be more children going to grammar schools. They usually have a fixed intake. Or are you talking about the proportion of children from private primary schools. I'm not sure that data would even be collected or analysed but if it was why assume the private school children are more likely to get in?

Yes, the houses are a bit smaller here for the price. Another reason I can't see a mass move to avoid VAT. Not only will the house be not as nice but you will have to pay more for it.

“Or are you talking about the proportion of children from private primary schools. I'm not sure that data would even be collected or analysed but if it was why assume the private school children are more likely to get in?”

When you apply for a place at secondary school you have to indicate which primary school you attended and the 11 plus results are sent there (as in theory, every school can appeal). Right now, in London and Outer London, and nearby Kent, Bexley, Bromley, Sutton etc, required scores for September 2024 entry have gone up for a number of grammar schools. Lots of private prep and through school private kids are applying this year and we shall see the outcome from September. Council will have the information.

This plan unfortunately wouldn't work for them in areas like mine, where attending a feeder school is on the admissions criteria. They'd also need to move their child's primary school. Swapping primary schools (to whichever one has places) and moving house is fairly drastic. I don't doubt some people will do it, but it seems somewhat extreme.

Incidentally "oversubscribed" just means more people applied than places, which is virtually every school in some areas as people state multiple preferences. My DC's comp is oversubscribed. It also has GCSE results (slightly) lower than the national average. I'd be very interested to know if private school parents are really targeting this sort of school, or only the ones that are already full of affluent middle class families?

This could be an opportunity to reform grammar schools so that they are offering an uplift for children who most need it.
I have friends whose parents attended grammar from working class backgrounds and it was the making of them. I never hear this any more.
These days grammars (where I am anyway) are highly tutored middle class children be they privately educated or middle class state.
If there was an increase in privately educated children, perhaps this proportion could be capped?

@wombat15 - “Yes, the houses are a bit smaller here for the price. Another reason I can't see a mass move to avoid VAT. Not only will the house be not as nice but you will have to pay more for it.”

Again, this is already happening in London and Greater London, particularly this year. As was said up thread, every school/every area will have its own particularities.

Personally I am most concerned about the most deprived areas that can already not recruit doctors and teaching staff (who values education more than teachers?) Seems reasonably foreseeable that these places will struggle the most if there is no good state option or cheaper private option for those professions due to the VAT.

Yes, I suppose they will have the information but that doesn't mean it is analysed according to who went to a private prep versus state so wouldn't be readily available and quickly supplied.

This is why the effect will be felt in some areas more than others. I can’t think of a single secondary around us which uses a feeder school in the entry criteria.

I'm not naming my DC school - but classes of 60 and teachers teaching outside subject areas both happen though we've been lucky not yet had both situations together. This has been an issue last few years even in exam years. As have succession of supply - and in pre exam years supply outside area and kids doing worksheets for months is shocking common.

I would say it's just my kids school but DN school in different part of UK has teacher shortages and she was left without a teacher in exam subject whole of Y11 and unsurprisingly her grade dropped. She at college now but that school is still dealing with serve RACC issues - which is still heavily impacting on the kids though seems to have dropped from the headlines.

It's why one of the teachers on here - maths teacher noblegiraffe- keeps starting threads about teacher shortages and lack of recruitment to training schemes. It's an issue now - you can't hire subject teachers needed- then you get bigger classes or teacher teaching outside subject areas - which can often make teacher retention worse.

“Yes, I suppose they will have the information but that doesn't mean it is analysed according to who went to a private prep versus state so wouldn't be readily available and quickly supplied.”

Pretty sure the right leaning press will be all over this. And state schools and councils will have to supply under FOI within the require time limits right before the election potentially.

If you are talking about London, the main problem with recruiting doctors and teaching staff will be the cost of living there. I doubt the ones that are in London can also afford private school regardless of VAT.

There have been lots of threads about children being left without a subject teacher, or being taught by teachers with absolutely no experience in that subject.

It will make zero difference where I live, this very much depends where you live.

Why I'm surprised that poster seem so incredulous.

Honestly I suspect some catchment area house prices will go up long term with this - and some private school may go under - but mostly it's a distraction from State sector problems which affect many more pupils.

“If you are talking about London, the main problem with recruiting doctors and teaching staff will be the cost of living there. I doubt the ones that are in London can also afford private school regardless of VAT.”

No I am not talking about London which has excellent public transport.
I am specifically talking about deprived areas in parts of the country which just have a few thriving businesses left, for example. Certain deprived areas are massively struggling with teacher shortages and NHS shortages due to deprivation. Most of the families in those professions will only go there if there is reasonable schooling for their children (state or private as a choice).

Take away more teachers and more NHS staff and management positions in business will just lead to further deprivation. And let’s say a teacher wanted the great state school - if the house prices go up further, then the teacher is not coming either. Same applies to the doctors. If you make the remaining great state schools even more exclusive by removing the private option, it is pretty obvious it just leads to further deprivation.
Meanwhile, for towns like Cambridge, Winchester, Sevenoaks etc, with already good state schools and excellent elite private schools, house prices go up further, become even more elitist and middle class overall.

We already discussed the isssues with uni places in Scotland and private school kids not getting on certain courses there.

You mean you had the system explained to you that it was nothing to do with private school kids not getting on certain courses because they were private school kids, but because they were not eligible (along with many state school kids) for widening participation places?

You might want to look at ethnicity- especially for SW London grammars. Large proportion of eg HK residents moving into grammar areas. It would be interesting to see what the impact of this is, as they haven’t created extra grammar places for this extra demand.

No @SabrinaThwaite - that is not my question. My question is what are the consequences of this VAT policy in Scotland, in particular, and how will it affect Politics there and then more broadly, the impact on Westminster. And has this even been considered. What are the potential ramifications? I would really like to understand this point.

I find this really interesting. It seems really obvious to me that these are precisely the reasons that people choose private school (at least at primary) but it sounds as if you find that very unlikely. Most people I know who've gone private from the start are dual professional income families who see the decision as either keep paying fees similar to nursery and sustain the two FT jobs vs one or both step back and work around the state school. VAT is a live issue as it makes the second of those much more atractive. As a PP says, it's all very much based on your experiences and that's very focused on your local housing and schooling options and your 'circle' and this is likely to play out very differently in lots of places. I hope that Labour look into this carefully.

We have a shortage of doctors and teachers full stop and it has nothing to do with a lack of private school provision. Most can't afford it regardless of VAT and just because a job is in a deprived area it doesn't mean you have to live there.

Because more of them will apply. Even if the % who are successful remains constant the finite number will increase.

But wrap around childcare enabling both parents to sustain FT work is far less than private school fees – so why would private school be an option, solely for that reason?

why assume the private school children are more likely to get in?

They are often more likely to score highly in the 11 plus exams because private primaries/preps tutor for them. The format of many of the exams mean they’re fairly easy to tutor for (I’m not saying that’s right). Our prep has a pretty much 100% pass rate for the nearest grammar exams.